Espionage & Assymetrical Warfare

[wrylachlan]

Originally posted by MrBaggins


Are you nuts? The Dow lost thousands of points, and the NASDAQ lost a third of its value. Billions of dollars of damage was done to New York city. The local transit system plunged into chaos and many jobs lost. The insurance market took a soaking (which affected world-wide coverages) and changed P&C coverage forever.

How should that not be shown in a Civ scale?

It could be argued that the physical damage to the infrastructure was not as damaging as the "Declaration of war". The stock Market was already in the process of tanking, and there is no way to proove that 9-11 made that worse. As for the jobs lost in NYC. The job loss caused by 9-11 was negligable in relation to the citywide job market, and essentially non-existant in relation to the Civ wide job market.

[MrBaggins]

Yes... the stock market is in civ, abeit as abstracted trade arrows.

Claiming that there is no correlation between the 9/11 attacks and the depth of the recession is thin indeed. The speed and depth of market liquidation rivalled Black Tuesday, and it was due to a fear reaction.

The economic realities of this spread beyond New York, as companies across the US had a lot of their value wiped out, from this effect.

Its naive in the extreme to suggest that the effect was

a) inconsequential

and

b) limited to NY

[hexagonian]

Originally posted by Shogun Gunner
Now, if you want to incorporate air travel for spies, I think that's very possible - and realistic. Just allow spies to travel from a home airport to any other airport in the world. The pre-requiste being an airport existing or just assume airports exist at every city within a civ that has discovered flight...they would be civilian not military airports a la the city improvement "airport".

When your spy flies into a foreign city, the spy would be undetected at first. Detection of your spy would depend on any number of variables: hostilities, active anti-spy operations, more actions/movement on the part of your spy creating more opportunity to be caught, etc.

Bottom line, a spy should be able to move via land, water and air. And yes, he should be a unit.

Excellent solution!!!!!

The beauty of this is that a player will move from the early-game micromanagement handling of this issue (where micromanagement is not such a pain) into a later-game macromanagement solution!

[Shogun Gunner]

Originally posted by MrBaggins
Yes... the stock market is in civ, abeit as abstracted trade arrows.

Claiming that there is no correlation between the 9/11 attacks and the depth of the recession is thin indeed. The speed and depth of market liquidation rivalled Black Tuesday, and it was due to a fear reaction.

The economic realities of this spread beyond New York, as companies across the US had a lot of their value wiped out, from this effect.

Its naive in the extreme to suggest that the effect was

a) inconsequential

and

b) limited to NY

Please don't mistake my response as a "real life response" My answer only pertains to Civ - not the real 9-11 tragedy.

I have to disagree with you. The economic recession experienced in 2001 is not 100% directly attributable to the 9-11 attacks. There were signs (of course more obvious in hindsight) that the economy was highly overvalued. Much of the overvaluation was due to overspeculation -- that is not real money.

I will concede that consumer confidence did fall due to the attacks. Additionally, the loss of productivity, specifically in the financial markets, was measureable. However, in the scale of economic cycles in the America, this was not worse, yes it was bad, but, not the worse. In fact, the effect was most strong regarding consumer confidence and not actual production generated by NYC. How many companies went out of business? Not too many considering the percentage valuation declined experienced. Previous recessions had pushed more business to bankruptcy that this last recession.

I would ask, how is this relate to Civ? That is the point of this thread. This is not a political discussion We don't have business cycles, recessions or even economic boom times represented in Civ. Of course we have the direct, linear relationship of population = more trade arrows in Civ. So using this measurement, the 9-11 attacks would not cause a change in the economic climate in civ. Thousands of people died, probably thousands of people moved out NYC due to terrorism, but that's not a large effect that could be represented in the current civ construct. How many trade arrows would you lose in a city generating 50+??? One, two lost trade arrows due to death and emigration from NYC? Did people leave other US cities due to terrorism? Did they stop working? In the civ model, the effect of a 9-11 attack simply isn't on the radar screen.

This civ system would have to be signficantly modified (as discussed in the Economics/Trade thread) to accomodate the effects of any terrorist attacks. Being an Economics major, I would be all for a more robust economic model working inside the civ model, but I doubt it has widespread support among Civ players.

[Shogun Gunner]

Originally posted by wrylachlan


It could be argued that the physical damage to the infrastructure was not as damaging as the "Declaration of war". The stock Market was already in the process of tanking, and there is no way to proove that 9-11 made that worse. As for the jobs lost in NYC. The job loss caused by 9-11 was negligable in relation to the citywide job market, and essentially non-existant in relation to the Civ wide job market.

Should have read this post first.

They actually have already measured the job loss due to 9-11...I have to see if I dig up the report at work. If I remember correctly, it was a wash. Job loss was offset by increased security/military/rebuilding spending that would not have occurred if 9-11 did not happen.

It can be argued that some of these offsetting expenditures was really government deficit spending...but that's not even allowed in Civ.

[wrylachlan]

Originally posted by MrBaggins
Yes... the stock market is in civ, abeit as abstracted trade arrows.

Claiming that there is no correlation between the 9/11 attacks and the depth of the recession is thin indeed. The speed and depth of market liquidation rivalled Black Tuesday, and it was due to a fear reaction.

The economic realities of this spread beyond New York, as companies across the US had a lot of their value wiped out, from this effect.

Its naive in the extreme to suggest that the effect was

a) inconsequential

and

b) limited to NY

If the post 9-11 market selloff was caused by the terrorist attacks, what caused Black Tuesday? The fact that that a Black Tuesday is possible without a terrorist attack is a clear example of the fact that the market is capable of making extremely large moves very quickly. Correllation is not causation. Because I happened to kiss Megan Kelly the night before Black Tuesday does that mean I caused it???

And companies across the US did not loose any value in the stock market crash. Their stock lost value, which is a very different thing. None of their ability to produce goods was effected. The demand side of the economy was slowed down, but consumer spending came back within a couple of months and remained strong throughout the recession.

What do you think happened to all those companies as a direct result of 9-11? And don't believe everything that Fox News tells you.

[Shogun Gunner]

Originally posted by wrylachlan
None of their ability to produce goods was effected.

Correct. My "market capitalization" point earlier. Sure, it probably caused a change of plans for many companies that wanted to expand or diversify their businesses. With a reduction of stock value, you can't sell more shares or use your stock as colloratal to expand the business....it's a recession anyway - wrong time for that.

Originally posted by wrylachlan
Because I happened to kiss Megan Kelly the night before Black Tuesday does that mean I caused it???

Did you kiss her?

[lajzar]

One proposal I made elsewhere was that any land unit that wants to enter a sea tile will automatically have a civilian transport built (ie impounded for the war effort from the merchant fleet).

Such ships will be slightly slower than player-built transports, but I think this is a necessary rule to enable Roman-empire style civs to flourish. With this rule, the sea transport for spies is sorted.

Regarding air travel for spies. Within your cities, you have free air travel anyway. That idea of the Palestine civ sending a spy to America has one flaw. Airport security should detect any spy that even tries. Imagine teh height of the cold war. If USSR wanted to send a spy to America, don't you think anyone whose flight history showed him as coming from Moscow might not be subject to a little more airport security scrutiny?

Generally, I am in favour of many types of non-combat units, some with the flagless option, some without.

[Lord_Davinator]

face life face humanity face cheating and face deciet

[Shogun Gunner]

That's a suggestion???

[Paddy]

for such a bump, it was a short statement indeed

[JamesJKirk]

Well while it's still sorta bumped, I'll throw in my 2 cents. Espionage was more fun in Civ 2 than 3. That being said, I still would prefer it abstracted than subject myself to the tedity of moving spy units around. I like the idea of setting up the "revolutionary agent" or whatever in a city. The set up of a cell could work always or almost always, and the success could depend on how much money you have dedicated to it, and how the other civ acts. If there's disorder, the likelihood of revolt would increase, as it would if there's WW or if they're in a more repressive government, and especially if the city had foreign citizens (particularly your own). So as the desire for revolution builds up, it's more likely the city'll flip to you, or even declare independence or go to a third party.

[lajzar]

In civ terms, 9-11 was a spy destroying the stock exchange city improvement, and getting captured in the process.

[Enigma_Nova]

>_<'' it's a 9-11 thread.
Reported, asking it to be sent off-topic.

[patcon]

I liked spies in civ2. I liked them as units, which could grow in experience/skill and had a limitation on how much they could do in one turn.
That being said, I like the idea of the different types of spy-units, with different capabilties - intel gatherers, population agitators, "military" actions.

As far as insertion/movement of units
In peacetime handle them initially like trade goods, then as units once they land.
1. "Spy" units can enter a country at any trade port of entry (airport, harbor, road/RR square at border), ending their turn, as they have to clear customs.
2. Can use roads and RRs for movement at same cost as natives. Can move from airport to airport or harbor to harbor.
3. Can occupy same tile as another civ without incident, unless detected.
In wartime spies must be airdropped, inserted by submarine, or walked in. Possibly inserted via a third civ which is neutral (taking an extra turn an increased exposure to detection).

Detection-of-spy probability based on
1. general security level of entered civ (set by that civ, higher levels causing a happiness hit, as citizens are more fearful)
2. government of entered civ
3. attitude of entered civ toward spy's civ
4. spy civ's reputation
5. national improvements such as "Intelligence Agency", "National Bureau of Investigation", "Coast Guard"
6. city improvements such as "police station", "harbor patrol"
7. other units in spy's tile (more eyes up to a point, then diminishing as the spy gets lost in the background)
8. presence of spy's nationality in city
9. spy unit's activity, from low- to high-detectability
a. sleeper cell (no activity)
b. moving in open country
c. moving on roads/RRs
d. moving through harbors and airports
e. observing/reporting units
f. entering via road/RR
g. entering via harbor or airport
h. other spy activities with various levels of risk of exposure

Detected spies could be expelled, returned home for ransom, or executed. Another possibilty (if certain activities required more than one spy unit) would be to have that spy become visible to you so you could tail it in hopes of being led to other spies.

Tongue in cheek (sort of) - I loved the idea of a"lawyer" unit you could send into another civ's territory. Would need a "law school" city improvement to build. The "supreme court" small wonder would be like the Statue of Zeus, producing lawyers every 5 turns. Would cause unhappiness, corruption, loss of tax revenue, and dimished production in the city to which it was sent. Would be a double-edged sword however, for every lawyer unit you build, you get 2, one of which must stay in your own civ. Could be countered by "Shakespeare's Theater" ("First, we kill all the lawyers.")