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Thread: 2012 Election Map Prediction Thread

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    Jaguar
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    2012 Election Map Prediction Thread

    "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

    Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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    The Mad Monk
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    Romney doesn't take Massachusetts?
    "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.

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    Kuciwalker
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    OK guys, predictions for how many EVs Ben will predict for Romney? I say 400.

  4. #4
    Jaguar
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    I predict that BK will predict 444 EVs for Romney.
    "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

    Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

  5. #5
    The Mad Monk
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    444 electron volts isn't near enough.
    "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.

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    Hauldren Collider
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    I just want to know whether ben hands DC to Romney or not.

    Also I agree with Jaguar's map, except I would also give Iowa to Romney. Tough call though, a bunch of Evangelicals might stay home. I think in a Romney-victory map, New Hampshire would also go likely red.

    Anyway here's my map. New Hampshire I'm kind of on the fence about.

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=kAg
    Last edited by Hauldren Collider; May 8, 2012 at 18:45. Reason: typo; revised map to include NH
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

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    gribbler
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    Well, here:
    303
    235
    Attached Images Attached Images

  8. #8
    Hauldren Collider
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    I think the case for a blue Virginia is vastly overstated. It relies on a lot of coal-miner democrats (IE de fact West Virginians) voting for him and good minority turnout.
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

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    The Mad Monk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaguar View Post
    You're also bucking history -- Ohio always goes to the winner.
    "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...After eight years of this Administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" — Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Treasury secretary, 1941.

  10. #10
    Tupac Shakur
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    Too lazy to post the map image. Mine's the same as Jaguar's except for New Hampshire going for Romney. Romney 270 - 268 Obama.

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=kAa

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    DaShi
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    “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
    "Capitalism ho!"

  12. #12
    Hauldren Collider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tupac Shakur View Post
    Why do you think NH is more likely to go red than iowa? I'd like to hear your reasoning.
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

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    Tupac Shakur
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    New Hampshire is Romney's de facto home state and he's generally well-liked there.

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    Hauldren Collider
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    Fair enough, that makes sense. If it were say, Rick Perry or some more southern or religious republican, I would guess that Iowa would flip red before NH though.

    In that case I'd revise my map to have both Iowa and NH.
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

  15. #15
    EPW
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    "

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    Lorizael
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Mad Monk View Post
    444 electron volts isn't near enough.
    With Tevatron shut down, the US doesn't produce many electron volts anymore.

  17. #17
    regexcellent
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    I strongly doubt Virginia is going to go for Obama again, considering Bob McDonnell.

    edit: here's my map

    romney-obama-map.png
    Last edited by regexcellent; May 8, 2012 at 20:54. Reason: typo
    I come from the land of the ice and snow
    From the rust belt where industry won't go

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    gribbler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
    I think the case for a blue Virginia is vastly overstated. It relies on a lot of coal-miner democrats (IE de fact West Virginians) voting for him and good minority turnout.
    No, it relies on good turnout among younger voters.

  19. #19
    Ben Kenobi
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    493-43
    Last edited by Ben Kenobi; May 8, 2012 at 22:13.
    Scouse Git (2) LaFayette Adam Smith and Solomwi you will be missed
    "They'd rather their children all died then ever pay a penny more in taxes." Oerdin on OK.

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    Ben Kenobi
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    OK guys, predictions for how many EVs Ben will predict for Romney? I say 400.
    And Kuci is the winner, as he was the closest.
    Scouse Git (2) LaFayette Adam Smith and Solomwi you will be missed
    "They'd rather their children all died then ever pay a penny more in taxes." Oerdin on OK.

  21. #21
    regexcellent
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    Please explain to me your logic in deciding that Obama can win Mississippi Alabama, and South Carolina.

    Unless you colored Romney blue and Obama red, in which case, how does Obama get Utah, and how does Romney get Hawaii?
    I come from the land of the ice and snow
    From the rust belt where industry won't go

  22. #22
    regexcellent
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    Quote Originally Posted by gribbler View Post
    No, it relies on good turnout among younger voters.
    It would also depend on very good turnout among blacks in the corridor between Richmond and Hampton Roads, which is unlikely to meet the 2008 levels. Minority voter registration has declined from 2008 and Virginia and North Carolina are states where this is going to be very significant.
    I come from the land of the ice and snow
    From the rust belt where industry won't go

  23. #23
    Hauldren Collider
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    Quote Originally Posted by gribbler View Post
    No, it relies on good turnout among younger voters.
    What, you think Virginia has enough college students to elect Obama? That wasn't what won him Virginia last time, gribbler.
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

  24. #24
    Ben Kenobi
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    Please explain to me your logic in deciding that Obama can win Mississippi Alabama, and South Carolina.
    Mitt 'Cheezy grits' Romney is really weak in the south.
    Scouse Git (2) LaFayette Adam Smith and Solomwi you will be missed
    "They'd rather their children all died then ever pay a penny more in taxes." Oerdin on OK.

  25. #25
    Hauldren Collider
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    Quote Originally Posted by regexcellent View Post
    Please explain to me your logic in deciding that Obama can win Mississippi Alabama, and South Carolina.

    Unless you colored Romney blue and Obama red, in which case, how does Obama get Utah, and how does Romney get Hawaii?
    More importantly, how does Obama win Texas?
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

  26. #26
    Hauldren Collider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
    Mitt 'Cheezy grits' Romney is really weak in the south.
    LOL
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

  27. #27
    Ben Kenobi
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    God I ****in hate Romney.

    More importantly, how does Obama win Texas?
    Virgil Goode polls > 5 percent. They did a poll with Goode in VA and it showed Romney down 12 in Virginia. My map assumes that Goode runs and does well, splitting the vote.
    Scouse Git (2) LaFayette Adam Smith and Solomwi you will be missed
    "They'd rather their children all died then ever pay a penny more in taxes." Oerdin on OK.

  28. #28
    gribbler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
    What, you think Virginia has enough college students to elect Obama? That wasn't what won him Virginia last time, gribbler.
    By "younger voters" I don't specifically mean people aged 18-22. His support was far stronger among voters under 30. If you think stupid rednecks (you call them West Virginians) are what won him Virginia I don't believe you. His performance was lousy among whites with no college.

  29. #29
    DaShi
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    Good Christians will never tolerate a Mormon in the White House.
    “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
    "Capitalism ho!"

  30. #30
    Hauldren Collider
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    Quote Originally Posted by gribbler View Post
    By "younger voters" I don't specifically mean people aged 18-22. His support was far stronger among voters under 30. If you think stupid rednecks (you call them West Virginians) are what won him Virginia I don't believe you. His performance was lousy among whites with no college.
    I think it was mainly high turnout among blacks in the southeastern area of Virginia and the growing population of the Northern Virginia region. But the main regions, iirc, of democratic support in VA are the coal mining rednecks in the southwest, blacks and other minorities in the southeast, and Northern Virginia.
    If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
    :(){ :|:& };:

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