CanPol: Race to the Finish

[notyoueither]

Continued from: http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showt...hreadid=145550

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/05/elxn-poll-ekos.html

New poll shows Tories in the lead
Last Updated Thu, 05 Jan 2006 15:33:05 EST
CBC News
The Conservatives had the momentum going their way as they entered the federal election campaign's second half, suggests a new poll.

The EKOS poll, done for the Toronto Star and La Presse and published on Thursday, shows the Conservatives with a lead of nearly six percentage points over the Liberals.

It's the first time since the beginning of the campaign a poll has indicated the Tories in a clear lead across the country.

The Conservatives had the support of 36.2 per cent of the people surveyed, while 30.4 per cent said they would vote Liberal.

That lead is larger than the poll's margin of error – 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 – indicating a clear lead.

The results are based on a sample of 1,386 respondents who were questioned Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another poll released Wednesday, by SES Research, showed the two parties in a statistical tie.

Other recent polls have shown the Conservatives gaining on the Liberals, who went into the campaign with the lead.

The latest EKOS poll showed the NDP had the support of 17.9 per cent, and the Bloc Québécois had 10.4 per cent of support nationally.

EKOS also showed that Liberal support had slipped in Ontario, where the Conservatives have to make significant gains.

The Tories were also in a statistical tie with the Liberals in Quebec. That rise apparently came at the expense of the Bloc, suggesting that the Conservatives' strategy of presenting themselves as an alternative for Quebec federalists angry with the Liberals has worked.

Just one poll, but... that swing in Quebec is massive. What consequence would it have in Ontario if Harper is being accepted by federalists in Quebec?

[joncha]

That poll seems a bit out there with its numbers. All the other polling has been showing a dead heat, but there is a bit of a swell building for Harper. He's run a strong campaign while Martin's been inept, and it's starting to be reflected.

[notyoueither]

The swing could be largely due to a large shift in perception of Harper between Ottawa and Montreal. Also, is the income trust issue digging in?

18 days to go.

[Flinx]

Seat Prediction

Originally posted by Flinx 2005/12/20
Here are my seat predictions based (solely) on polling data collected by The Strategic Counsel between Dec 14 and Dec 19 (n=2750)

Canada .....124 89 28 67  0
BC ..........19  9  8  0  0
AB............0 28  0  0  0
SK MB.........4 15  9  0  0
ON...........68 30  8  0  0
QC............8  0  0 67  0
NB NS PE NL..22  7  3  0  0

Here are my seat predictions based (solely) on polling data collected by The Strategic Counsel between Dec 30 and Jan 4 (n=2000)

Canada .....106 109 27 66  0
BC ..........10 16 10  0  0
AB............2 26  0  0  0
SK MB.........4 20  4  0  0
ON...........56 39 11  0  0
QC............8  1  0 66  0
NB NS PE NL..23  7  2  0  0

Feel free to all you like

[Ninot]

Heres what i think of Martin's secondary education promise.

Not much.

He won't keep it.

Don't vote Liberal please

[Flinx]

Originally posted by notyoueither

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/05/elxn-poll-ekos.html

Just one poll, but... that swing in Quebec is massive. What consequence would it have in Ontario if Harper is being accepted by federalists in Quebec?

Originally posted by joncha
That poll seems a bit out there with its numbers. All the other polling has been showing a dead heat, but there is a bit of a swell building for Harper. He's run a strong campaign while Martin's been inept, and it's starting to be reflected.

You can read the poll numbers from the EKOS site. They have the conservatives at 20% in Quebec whereas the latest SES and Strategic Counsel polls have them at 12%. This would suggest the EKOS numbers are a little off...

[Richelieu]

Chretien must be pissing his pants! The old crook is getting away with adscam AND Martin is getting the shaft on top of it!

[Richelieu]

As for Harper, we've seen him a lot in Quebec recently. And most of the comments on him from the talking heads on political shows have been positive lately.

[Flinx]

Re: The EKOS Poll

Using the Quebec numbers in that EKOS poll would give the following seat predictions using my model:

QC............8  6  1 60  0

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Flinx


You can read the poll numbers from the EKOS site. They have the conservatives at 20% in Quebec whereas the latest SES and Strategic Counsel polls have them at 12%. This would suggest the EKOS numbers are a little off...

Or something is rapidly changing?

I am not a huge fan of over-reliance on polls, but I am exceedingly pleased with the prospect that we could have two truely national federal parties again, soon.

[Flinx]

Another RCMP Probe into the Liberals?

From The Globe and Mail:

Mounties eye another referendum handout

By JANE TABER AND DANIEL LEBLANC

Thursday, January 5, 2006 Posted at 7:07 PM EST

Globe and Mail Update

Ottawa — The RCMP is looking into a controversial $4.8-million grant that was awarded to a pro-Canada group at the time of the 1995 referendum on Quebec sovereignty, officials have told The Globe and Mail.

The money went out more than 10 years ago in three disbursements to a little-known group called Option Canada, which has since been disbanded.

On Dec. 23, 2005, the RCMP quizzed two officials at the department of Canadian Heritage about the 1995 expenditure. It remains unclear to how the entire grant was used, but a source said that there are questions surrounding the distribution of an amount, believed to be $300,000.

The RCMP review is the latest bad news for the Liberal campaign. Last week, the Mounties launched a criminal investigation into whether the government's November announcement of a tax change favourable for income trusts was leaked.

The RCMP would not confirm or deny any activity on the file.

However, an official at Canadian Heritage said the department called in the police after hearing that Option Canada was the focus of an upcoming book by Quebec investigative journalist Normand Lester.

“Various information led us to believe that there were possible irregularities in the management of federal funds and it's in that optic that we asked the RCMP to look more closely at the matter,” Heritage spokesman Jean-Guy Beaupré said.

Mr. Beaupré said the RCMP has yet to determine whether it will launch a full criminal investigation.

The Canadian Unity Council, which is a non-profit organization devoted to “strengthening Canada”, is aware of the RCMP's interest in Option Canada, a group that the CUC set up shortly before the referendum to promote federalism in Quebec. The council couldn't undertake certain political activities because of its charitable status.

“A bit before Christmas, we were told that there had been a request for the RCMP to look to see if there were grounds for an investigation,” said CUC spokesman Peter Cowan. “That's essentially what we were told. We have not heard anything that changes that to this point.”

Mr. Cowan said no one at CUC has been contacted about the investigation.

Option Canada was created on Sept. 7, 1995, and started receiving federal funds within a few weeks. It obtained a total of $4.8-million in three payments dated Sept. 24, Oct. 2 and Dec. 20.

An internal review at Canadian Heritage criticized the disbursements, saying the process “lacked the rigour and scrutiny one would expect for such large sums of money being given to an unproven client.”

Option Canada has been disbanded and its former president, Claude Dauphin, is on holiday and could not be reached for comment.

Still, Mr. Dauphin has hired a spokesman in advance of the publication of Mr. Lester's book, The Secrets of Option Canada, which is due to be released next week.

Through the spokesman, Mr. Dauphin said he is unaware of any allegations of wrongdoing, and that even though Mr. Dauphin signed the applications for funds, he did not oversee the federal money.

“He was not involved in the day-to-day management, so he does not know how the funds were distributed and to whom, other than what he read in the media,” said spokesman Jonathan Goldbloom.

Mr. Dauphin is a city councillor in Montreal and a member of the city's executive committee. Before going into municipal politics, Mr. Dauphin worked in the late 1990s as an aide to Prime Minister Paul Martin, who was minister of finance at the time.

In his report into the sponsorship scandal, Mr. Justice John Gomery said that an advertising agency called BCP Group Inc., which worked on the federalist side, received some of the Option Canada funds.

“From September 15 to October 5, 1995, shortly before the referendum, BCP invoiced Option Canada for a total of $2.6-million (including taxes) for media purchases and advertising related services,” Judge Gomery's report said.

Senior government officials have asked for a briefing note from Canadian Heritage in anticipation of the RCMP interest in Option Canada becoming public, a source said.

Heritage Minister Liza Frulla said in an interview that she is unaware of any developments on the file. Ms. Frulla said she has recused herself from the Option Canada issue because she was involved in the NO campaign in 1995 as a provincial representative.

The Bloc Québécois has always been extremely critical of the grant to Option Canada, saying it likely bypassed Quebec's electoral law.

[notyoueither]

Sponsorship, the gift that keeps on giving...

[Flubber]

On the polls -- everyone cites the accuracy level ( say 3.1%) as if it were gospel. They always forget the qualifier "19 times out of 20"

So remember on average (with properly conducted polls)1 poll in 20 will show results that vary from the actual situation by more than the state margins. That could be the case with that particular poll OR it might be a sign of things to come-- only time will tell

[Wezil]

The Conservatives are making ground in Ontario in recent days with their law and order policies. It took a young girl being shot in Toronto to do it (of course), but the issue has risen fast.

All parties are making crime & punishment announcements but the Libs have no credibility on the issue and everyone knows the NDP's heart isn't in it.

[Ben Kenobi]

You can read the poll numbers from the EKOS site. They have the conservatives at 20% in Quebec whereas the latest SES and Strategic Counsel polls have them at 12%. This would suggest the EKOS numbers are a little off...

Perhaps, but the margin of error should show the conservatives at least at 15% in Quebec, which is a huge gain.

I think I posted your link in the other thread, I was stunned to see those numbers. The trouble is, even at 20 percent, it leaves the BQ at 65 due to the splitting of federalist sentiment. At 25 percent, you start seeing more seats for the Conservatives.

So plenty of work still to do.