Sony resurgent?

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
I'm still not convinced the Wii will have that much staying power in the upcoming years, as more and more folks purchase High Definition TVs...

Yeah, I agree. I'll still probably get a Wii though when some of the new top tier games are released. I think it will complement my Xbox 360 quite well.

[Spaced Cowboy]

Just came back from the local best buy and they have:

0 Wiis
3 Xbox360's
A whole pallet of ps3's probably close to 60.

[snoopy369]

Wii

I will happily buy one one of these days. Like the good doctor says, it's a good complement to more traditional gaming platforms, even if it doesn't have HD graphics.

If the HD graphics became a problem, I wonder how difficult it would be for Nintendo to release a new Wii that had HD capability (alongside SD)? A better processor and a better GPU i imagine, but other than that how hard would it be?

Substantially easier than releasing a whole new console, yes? And a lot of Wii owners would buy it (again), I'd think...

/me starts to see their evil plan grow

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
I'm still not convinced the Wii will have that much staying power in the upcoming years, as more and more folks purchase High Definition TVs... and as the 360 and PS3 fall in price. Wii is a good cheap alternative with an interesting control system, but I think if the other consoles were at the same price point, the Wii wouldn't be outselling them.

The interesting questions:

1. Is Nintendo making more profit per console than the other two? I suspect yes (as the other two are both probably losing money, or close to it, yes?).

2. Once you get beyond the cost and price of the console (1.), does pure numbers equate to market penetration for developers? Probably not... but are the (substantially) larger Wii numbers good enough to equate to it anyway?

2a. (sort of 2. reworded) Do Wii owners buy enough games per capita (er, per console) compared to XBox360 owners to outweigh them for total games sold [particularly in the future]? That will be one of the interesting questions..

3. When will Microsoft come out with a Wii style controller (and Sony)?

[Agathon]

Nintendo is winning because they have an innovative product.

If you'd asked anyone in 2001 what the next generation gaming consoles would be like, they would have given you a description that fitted the 360 and PS3. Both consoles were completely predictable. The online features are poorly thought out, with the possible exception of PSHome, and the controllers could be better.

Why couldn't someone do something different?

Oh wait...

What's worse is that, even though the 360 is outselling the PS3, it is not outselling the old Xbox to any great degree at the same distance for release. If it stays like that, they will take another financial bath.

That suggests to me that there just isn't a great appetite for next gen consoles.

[Nostromo]

Originally posted by Agathon
Nintendo is winning because they have an innovative product.

In part, yes. But I'm sure that the fact that its dirt cheap helps a lot. Also, the controller is innovative, but the games aren't really innovative, IMO. Its all the same old Mario crap. People seem to think that innovative control scheme = innovative gameplay. Its plainly false, IMO. Also, how long can people go on without new games? Nintendo didn't announce anything new at E3.

The online features are poorly thought out, with the possible exception of PSHome, and the controllers could be better.

I don't understand why you're saying this. Xbox Live is considered pretty innovative in the console world and most people love it. Microsoft is clearly the leader here. PSHome? Come on! Give me a break!

What's worse is that, even though the 360 is outselling the PS3, it is not outselling the old Xbox to any great degree at the same distance for release. If it stays like that, they will take another financial bath.

How is that even possible? The Xbox is not even on sale anymore.

[Colon™]

Get over it. People love Nintendo. They don't love MS and Sony. Even if Nintendo releases half baked stuff, they'll buy it over fully baked MS and Sony. They don't give a **** about what nerds thinks over E3 presentations. Nintendo won. Over and out.

[Kuciwalker]

How is that even possible? The Xbox is not even on sale anymore.

He's comparing sales relative to release date.

[Nostromo]

Originally posted by Colon™
Get over it. Kiddies love Nintendo. They don't love MS and Sony. Even if Nintendo releases half baked stuff, they'll buy it over fully baked MS and Sony. They don't give a **** about what nerds thinks over E3 presentations. Nintendo won. Over and out.

Corrected. I don't see the 15-35 male population (which is the majority) massively adopting the Wii.

[Kuciwalker]

Wait for SSBB.

[Nostromo]

And what the hell is that?

[Kloreep]

Originally posted by Agathon
If you'd asked anyone in 2001 what the next generation gaming consoles would be like, they would have given you a description that fitted the 360 and PS3. Both consoles were completely predictable.

Indeed. The 360 and PS3 aren't much more than an evolution of the old consoles - more powerful, with improved & wireless controllers. Otherwise, it's PS2 and XBox all over again. (I suppose the PS3 has better on-line than its predecessor? Haven't heard too much about it.)

The tilt control with the PS3 is a small step, I guess, but it doesn't sound to me like much of one. Nintendo's quite right to refer to themselves as "new gen" rather than the "next gen" title being bandied about for the PS3 and 360.

Originally posted by Agathon
That suggests to me that there just isn't a great appetite for next gen consoles.

Depends on how you define appetite, I suppose. I think they could easily increase sales, particularly as more games are released over the next year, if they could only reduce their prices to remain competitive with Nintendo.

I'd probably be ready to buy a 360 within the next year - IF it were a lot cheaper. Thing is, that's not going to happen. At most we'll see, what, a $100 price drop? That still leaves the 360 Premium at $300 for the basic package (the hard disk that comes with the Premium seems to me quite necessary, I don't know why they bother with the Core) + $50 for a second controller alone, plus probably a couple other accessories (charging station, extra batteries, wireless...) means you're talking $400 ($500 today) for a comfortable, multiplayer-capable setup before you even buy a game. And those are expensive too. It's still cheaper than a comparably games-capable PC, I'm sure, but still quite an investment.

The Wii, on the other hand, costs $250. That's $300 for a basic two-person package, I think? (IIRC controllers are about as expensive as its competitors, at least if you want the nunchuk.) If Nintendo can pull off a $100 price drop, that already goes down to $200. Now we're talking.

Question, though: I've been reading about how the 360's innards (and PS3) will undoubtedly decrease in size and cost as further R&D decreases the chip size. Given that the Wii is designed for cost and size, I'm guessing some of this has already gone on? So how much can Nintendo actually reduce their costs on it?

Originally posted by nostromo
Corrected.

Of course, the kiddy statement. I think a further correction is in order: just about anyone who is not a certain segment of that 15-35 population loves Nintendo right now. Or if they don't, they've been told by word of mouth & the general press how much everyone else does.

Originally posted by nostromo
I don't see the 15-35 male population (which is the majority) massively adopting the Wii.

I agree with you. I certainly don't think it will win as #1 for that segment, and it may well be that a lot of people are only going to buy one console.

Nintendo does seem to me to be in danger of losing what grip they had regained on the "hardcore" audience (which I suppose is indeed mainly male and younger), simply because they can't seem to release enough games for that crowd. Nintendo has some stuff coming from in-house, and Twilight Princess was ported, but otherwise... Microsoft, on the other hand, has somehow attracted a number of third-parties to produce "blockbusters" for their console.

They also do face accusations that the controller is a mere gimmick. I disagree, but as you say, innovative control doesn't equal innovative gameplay. From what I've read, it doesn't exactly sound like it's meeting expectations of enabling 1-to-1 style controls, and as long as the motions are merely used as triggers, they're simply substitutes for buttons - possibly mean poorer controls depending on how accurate it is.

Still, Metroid Prime 3 is supposed to be showing how it's done. Guess we'll see.

Also, though, the Wii's cheaper, so more people might buy it as a secondary console if what games Nintendo can offer to the hardcore are strong enough. We'll see.

[snoopy369]

Nintendo doesn't get as much cost savings from chip technology advances, because their chip is much further behind in technology. MS uses a smaller die process, they get a chip that gets less hot and is cheaper to make by a bit, and requires less extra stuff to cool it etc. Nintendo doesn't really see that savings, not nearly as much, because their chips are so old that smaller die process wouldn't really save them that much.

As posted above, I think it is going to do well if they develop a HD version that's more powerful but otherwise identical in a few years (say, mid 2009 release, if not XMas 2008). Soon enough to get the wave of popularity as it slowly dies down, but late enough that plenty of people will buy both Wii and WiiHD.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by nostromo
And what the hell is that?

Wiki is your friend.

[Kloreep]

I dunno about them developing a higher-powered Wii, at least not so soon - Christmas 2009, say, would only be 3 years after the release of the Wii. I wolud think that cause a bit of an outrage - that's an even shorter life cycle than the original XBox, isn't it? And IIRC one of the reasons Nintendo cited for the relatively modest jump in power was that development costs were skyrocketing for game developers along with computing power, and that they wanted to put their foot down and say "this is enough, more power would just make it harder to create games." I suppose that probably wasn't their #1 reason, but with the success they're having, are they really going to abandon that strategy and risk splitting their console audience in two just to try to appeal to people who want better graphics? Especially since, for the crowd that does demand HD graphics, the 360 and PS3 will be lowering in price, will be more tempting, and are more likely to have been bought by the time an "HD Wii" could come out.

The DS is supposed to be underpowered compared to the PSP, yet they are having success with it, and I haven't heard anything about them coming out with a higher-power version (even though the DS itself had a big hardware revision with the Lite).