About that blind research prediction tool!

[binTravkin]

Hi!

I read some time ago there was a tool to predict blind research results and non-blind research possible tech choices.

It was a Excel Worksheet IIRC.

I had it, but lost on the old PC..

Does anyone has a link or the actual file?

thanks,
binTravkin

[Illuminatus]

Might I suggest looking in your office next time, o Lord of Progress?

[binTravkin]

Yeah, it's really messy there, you know - creative people are rarely tidy..

Anyways, thanks for the help!

[Ka Plewy]

I'd appreciate some insight as to how this works...
I can see how it will be useful in a directed research game, but in blind research (semi-directed, if you insist), how does it help predict what tech you're going to get?

[binTravkin]

Well, I a bit messed this up, to predict the blind research results, you must first know what results/choices are possible (which this tool does) and then take in count an advanced formula which calculates how much Explore/Conquer/Discover/Build value each tech has. If you set to one particular from them, the game will always choose that whose value is the highest.

The basic and most important portion (IIRC) of this formula is the values listed for each tech in the Alpha(x).txt file.

Knowing and comparing those you can predict with approx 75% efficency.

[Ka Plewy]

Care to share the advanced formula?
I know about the 4 values in the alpha.txt file, but don't know about an advanced formular that helps.

[Dis]

doesn't that take the fun out of blind research?

[GeoModder]

Well, finally someone popping the question.

[Ka Plewy]

Originally posted by Dissident
doesn't that take the fun out of blind research?

I agree, it does. However, if blind research is being used in an MP game, and one party knows a trick it could be an unfair advantage. IF there's an advanced formula, the formula should be publicized.

[binTravkin]

Care to share the advanced formula?
I know about the 4 values in the alpha.txt file, but don't know about an advanced formular that helps.

I remember Kody and the other big figures here talking about that advanced formula, but as I understood it was never fully formulated, there were just sightings and guessings..

One thing is for sure:
First it takes the values of each tech (if you have chosen 3 choices eg Explore + Build + Discover it sums and divides by 3 to make the average), then it takes the values of techs they're the prereq for and so on.

Each step has less importance.

By my sightings it's something like
75% for 1st level
20% for 2nd
and 5% for the next ones (dunno how much of them, but it's #$%@ing hard to calculate such).

[freshman]

I dont want to play a MP game with blind research. Why should I have to do calculations I'd rather not do or play with folks who enjoy such calculations? There's already plenty of more interesting things to think about. The fact that there's folks out there interested in aquiring this formula or researching the formula suggests that they're starting to run out of stuff to think about - which amazes me. The correct answer (for me) is simply not to play blind research in a MP game.

[Chaos Theory]

Curiosity is sad? Life must be bland for you.

[freshman]

I edited my response - I turned my put-down into an amazement, but still makes my point (just without looking down on others )

And life is filled with wonderous curiosity for me

[Ka Plewy]

We're just trying to squeeze very joule out of every ec we get.

[binTravkin]

I dont want to play a MP game with blind research. Why should I have to do calculations I'd rather not do or play with folks who enjoy such calculations? There's already plenty of more interesting things to think about. The fact that there's folks out there interested in aquiring this formula or researching the formula suggests that they're starting to run out of stuff to think about - which amazes me. The correct answer (for me) is simply not to play blind research in a MP game.

Well, many players here think that one of the most important components of a good game is realism.
And blind research gives a simplified realistic representation to how research paths are chosen in RL.

The simple example is that Einstein never knew he'd research The Theory Of Relativity if he knew The Mechanics Of Newton and The Components Of Atom (forgive me if Im wrong in theories which served as prerequsities for Einsteins discovery, it has been a long time since I last read about him), but in game you know that if you have both IE and PN there's ~66% chance you can research IA next..

In RL you can predict what results can be of one discovery or another (read: for which techs it's a prereq), but you'll rarely succeed in predicting what discovery will be th next on the research path you've chosen.