MLB 2013!!

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Braves sign B.J. Upton from the Rays for 5 years at $75 million. This, obviously, means they aren't going to try to sign Michael Bourn. I think, while Upton is a good player, it was a mistake to chose him over Bourn (yes, Bourn is pricier, but it isn't like the Nationals are getting worse).

[snoopy369]

I like Upton better than Bourn. Bourn's a better defender (by a lot), but I think Upton's hitting skills are still improving. Bourn is never going to have much power, and Upton for $15MM/year is a pretty good deal, I think. Bourn is going to be more like $18MM or more.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I actually did a WAR comparison on another site and the last 4 years, Bourn has been roughly a 5 WAR per year player while Upton has been closer to a 3 WAR per year player. That means $15 mil for Upton is on the mark (considering $5mil per WAR). However, that means Bourn is worth around $25 mil a year, but will be paid $18 mil a year - that's a great deal.

And yeah, a lot of that is tied to defense - but ask Braves pitchers in the 90s what difference an amazing defensive CF can have.

[snoopy369]

Oh, sure. My problem is more that Bourn's value is tied to his speed far more than Upton's; and unless your name is Rickey Henderson, that speed (and agility) is going to decline with age. Bourn will be worth $20MM or more this year, but if he gets a 5 or 6 year contract? That takes him to 34 or 35, which is definitely past the point where a speed-first player is nearly as useful. Bourn's Batting runs are negative most years; only his baserunning and fielding runs make up for that.

Look at Kenny Lofton, for example; a better batter and almost as good fielder. 6-7 WAR/year during his 20s due to combination of all factors (well above average in batting runs, fielding, and baserunning). He turns 32,33,34, and drops off - 5.4 at 32, 3.2 at 33, 1.8 at 34, and the consistently below 2 after that. While some of that is due to injury, injuries are a specific risk to speedsters - power guys or average guys don't have much risk from serious injury derailing their specific skills, while a speedster with a torn meniscus might drop a significant amount of speed. And Lofton is one of the better speed-first players...

I'm not saying I'd not like to have Michael Bourn on my team, but I'm not sure I want to pay quite that much money when it could end up being a $100MM disaster very easily.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think that Bourn will continue his speed until 35 at any rate. Now if he was older, sure I'd be a bit wary, but with modern training techniques players are keeping their "young player skills" much longer than in the past. Also Bourn tends not to get injured (*knock on wood ) while Upton picks up niggling injuries here and there.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Nationals decide they can do the Braves better:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/nationals-steal-denard-span-from-twins/

Span, who will likely will give them similar value as Upton (but in different areas), for only $21mil for 3 years.

[snoopy369]

Denard Span similar value to BJ Upton? No, sorry... he had a good season last year and had nearly the same WAR, but his WAR is lower over time (more like 2-3 range while Upton is 3-4 range). Span's upside is basically what he is, while Upton has a bit more potential to show I think - the change of scenery will show, or not.

Some of this, perhaps, is in believing BJ Upton is a better player than he's shown recently due to small injuries and attitude (he's been overshadowed on the Rays by nearly everyone else, rather than being the upcoming star, for years now). I'll freely admit this is just speculation; but I'd rather have Upton than Span. (Although, not at $15m vs $7m, of course - Span is clearly the better bargain.)

That said, it does indicate the Nationals are good at CF, which gives them a lot more flexibility to re-sign LaRoche and/or another SP/RP. Certainly a good move by them, I think, and a much better choice than giving Bourn a ton of cash.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Hey, its not my opinion that Span is similar value of a player. That's what the columnist for Fangraphs (and Dave Cameron is no dummy) said and he works with baseball stats for a living, so I'll give him a wide latitude of faith, esp since Span's WAR was similar last season.

And Upton has been touted as the "upcoming star" on the Rays for 4 years now. He's just drastically under-performed those expectations.

[snoopy369]

The White Sox signed their third baseman of the present yesterday... Jeff Keppinger, super-utility man formerly of the Rays (btw, I think it is impressive how quickly people got used to calling them the Rays - Devil Rays now sounds wrong to me, who still says "Comiskey" and "Sears Tower" years later). Lots of contact, few strike outs, perhaps played above his ability last year but $12MM/3 years is pretty reasonable.

Basically a non-white sox signing... perhaps the Rick Hahn era is starting off on a good note?

[-Jrabbit]

Yeah, the signing seems a little Theo-esque. But at least we know it won't be Brett Morel at 3B in '13...

Oh, and $4MM/year? Gotta say, the price of mediocrity has certainly risen the past few years.

[snoopy369]

1 WAR = $5MM or so. Keppinger is worth around two thirds of a WAR to 1 WAR in a normal year playing everyday, and hit 2.4 WAR last year alone (who knows if that's a sign of improvement or just a random up year). Either way, he's an improvement over all sox 3Bs from the last 3 years, even with a 'bad' year mixed in for him.

[-Jrabbit]

Agreed. Not complaining about the signing.
This year should determine if he's an improving player, or if he just had a good year and will now regress to his mean performance level.

[snoopy369]

I'd happily take that mean performance level, given the low K rates. We need a few of those guys up top. Keppinger can bat #2 as long as his OBP is at least .315 or so, which it probably will be (it's been around there every year but the one obviously down year with SFO in 2011).

De Aza
Keppinger
Dunn
Konerko
Rios (I'd put Rios #3, but I know Ventura won't, so I will leave him here)
Viciedo
Alexei
Flowers
Beckham

I'd take that (and move Flowers up if his high ABs improve his hitting).

[-Jrabbit]

So is it just considered a done deal that this is all we'll ever get out of Beckham?
He seemed to have good fundamentals; I had high hopes for stepwise improvement. But it just hasn't happened. Head case?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Did we really have like a 6 post (or so) discussion on the Keppinger signing?!

You realize the Red Sox decided to overspend on Napoli (well not a huge overspend on Naps) and Victorino during the same time? And the Yankees are threatening to sign Youklis (which would be fun just to see how Red Sox Nation reacts). And, speaking of the Rays, they signed Yunel Escobar on a very cheap deal.