"NFL Football is Back!" 2011 Season Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

Like practically doing away with the FB position?

BECAUSE, (before a certain person starts arguing for the hell of it) it either adds another WR stretching the field or there are two TE's. One stays in to block and the other one slips out into a pattern.

Often TE's can also play FB. "Full House" formations with 3 RB/FB/TE's in the backfield are difficult to defend against.

[Al B. Sure!]

Or perhaps it has more to do with all the changes to officiating making defenses more cautious in how they play.

This is an explanation for what?

[OzzyKP]

For the crazy year of passing we've had. The big years for tight ends is part of that.

[Al B. Sure!]

For the crazy year of passing we've had. The big years for tight ends is part of that.

Nah I explored it. Brees and Brady hit high yards per attempt numbers but they hit those numbers or exceeded them in previous years before the rule changes. The reason Brees and Brady had such big yardage totals was a combination of the high Y/A and the fact that they were throwing 600+ times.

Brees' Y/A was 8.3 this year off 657 attempts. Brady: 8.6 off 611 attempts. Stafford: 7.6 off 663.

Those are really high though Stafford's yardage seems to be more because of his sheer attempts (663 attempts since he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt which is in that 7-8 range that good QB's are usually in). Still, Brees and Brady's Y/A went up possibly because his WR's were able to get more yards after the catch because tacklers had to be more careful.

Though I should note that hitting 8+ yards per attempt is not uncharted territory for those two QB's. Brady hit 8.3 in 2007. Brees hit 8.0 in 2006, 8.0 in 2008, and an even higher 8.5 in 2009.

So that makes me think no, the rule changes didn't matter because Brees and Brady were hitting these numbers in previous years.

Brees and Brady are just elite throwing 600+ times to scrappy west coast WR's who can get big yardage after the catch regardless of rules changes. That's why they broke Marino's record.

For the general increase in yardage (so many 4000 yard passers), I think that just happened because all the best QB's played on teams with terrible terrible defenses.

[Al B. Sure!]

Let's look at if there's been a change in yards per attempt:

In 2011, 1 QB averaged 9+ yards per attempt. 6 averaged 8+ yards per attempt. 11 averaged between 7 and 8.

In 2010, 4 QB's averaged 8+ yards per attempt. Another 13 QB's averaged between 7 and 8.

In 2009, 7 QB's averaged 8+ yards per attempt. Another 10 between 7 and 8.


As you can see, the 2009 season looked a lot like 2011 in this area.

The difference was that no QB threw more than 583 passes in 2009 so no QB hit 5000. Schaub's 4770 led the league and only Peyton Manning was the other QB to hit 4500.


So no, the passes aren't going longer than they did in 2009. The difference is 2011 QB's threw more.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

And why, do you suppose, would QBs have thrown more often? Bad defense, maybe, but for which side?

[Al B. Sure!]

And why, do you suppose, would QBs have thrown more often? Bad defense, maybe, but for which side?

Their own side. I said,

I think that just happened because all the best QB's played on teams with terrible terrible defenses.

I don't think it's an accident that the most prolific QB's this season all play for the worst defenses.

Check the consistency:

Brees... 24th ranked D
Brady... 31st ranked D
Stafford... 23rd ranked D
Eli.... 27th ranked D
Rodgers... 32nd ranked D

[-Jrabbit]

Don't forget, Peyton was out all year. Another great QB on a team with a bad defense.

[Al B. Sure!]

Don't forget, Peyton was out all year. Another great QB on a team with a bad defense.

Yes. A QB who threw it an insane 679 times last year, 2nd highest in league history, with the 20th ranked defense.


I'm sure pundits are saying the rules changes caused 2011's boost in QB yardage but I really think the coincidence of top QB's playing on teams with really bad D's is what did it. Watch us not have any 5000 yard passers next year (assuming that these teams improve their D's).

[Donegeal]

Perhaps their defenses are so bad because opposing offenses get so much during gargabe time and playing catch-up because their offense is so good.

NE: Overall-31, Pass-31, Rush-17
GB: Overall-32, Pass-32, Rush-14
NO: Overall-24, Pass-30, Rush-12
Det: Overall-23, Pass-22, Rush-23
NYG: Overall-27, Pass-29, Rush-19

[Al B. Sure!]

You're smoking crack if you think those teams have good defenses. The Patriots D especially is almost un-NFL worthy. They have converted WR's playing safety.

And the Giants and Lions were comeback kings (especially the Giants). They weren't leading in too many games.

[Donegeal]

No, I don't think they are good defenses. I'm saying how bad they are is exagerated because their offense is so good.

It's possible that these defenses would/could be anywhere between 12-25 overall if their offense wasn't so productive.

[Al B. Sure!]

Let's use the Packers as an example. Here's their halftime scores from every game this season:

1: 28-17 GB
2: 13-7 CAR
3: 17-10 GB
4: 28-17 GB
5: 14-6 ATL
6: 24-3 GB (no more scores)
7: 17-13 MIN
8: 28-17 GB
9: 17-0 GB
10: 21-10 GB
11: 7-0 GB
12: 21-17 GB
13: 31-0 GB
14: 6-0 KC
15: 14-3 GB
16: 24-19 GB

Not many blow-outs there, at least not as of half-time.

4 times the Packers were down at the half. Only three times were they up by 3 scores (ie- 15 or more).

[Al B. Sure!]

Okay I checked on Pro Football Reference which doesn't have Week 17 games on it for some reason. Still, for 15 games: The Packers and Patriots gave up slightly more touchdowns in the 4th than in other quarters. The Saints were pretty balanced each quarter but gave up the most TDs in the second quarter (12 second quarter TDs allowed). The Lions got absolutely raped in their second quarters (18 TDs allowed).

Bizarrely, the G-men allowed 17 4th quarter TDs far more than what they allowed in other quarters (1st: 8, 2nd: 13, 3rd: 8). But we know the Giants were comeback kings and it wasn't often that they had big leads on opponents in the 4th. Those were hardly garbage time scores.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

NE has given up 35% of its points against in the 4th quarter. In the first three quarters they have outscored their opponents 404 to 221. I think there's a decent argument to be made there for garbage time.

Edit: hm, that doesn't seem right. I think those stats might be for a different year...will look.

Edit2: no, that was right, never mind.