NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Off Season

[-Jrabbit]

Albert, if you were watching the game, you would have proper context. The Bears started with first down inside the one (after a brilliant play by Lance Briggs to strip and recover the ball) and had already failed 3 times to punch it in. Plus, they had already turned the ball over 4X. There was no reason to believe the offense would be functional. AND THEY WERE LOSING. With Dallas, Green Bay and the Giants coming up next, losing to Detroit would essentially end their season. They hadn't led since the opening drive of the game.

The FG is, easily, the correct call.

Only you, Easterbrook, and Lovie Smith would tempt fate by leaving your opponents in the lead with under 10 minutes to go in an absolutely critical game.

[-Jrabbit]

koy:

Hmm... let's see the likelihood of a 99 yard touchdown drive, especially versus the chance of a 1 yard gain for a TD. Also, compare the chance of a 99 yard drive compared to a 3 and out from the 1 yard line...

then, even if they scored the 99 yard TD, you still have options... down by 1 to begin with, if the other team scores a TD, that means you're only down by 8 which is attainable in 1 possession.

EPIC FAIL
If I was the coach up by seven before the PAT, I would go for two. Now you're down by 9 -- two scores -- because you didn't kick the FG.

[Al B. Sure!]

EPIC FAIL
If I was the coach up by seven before the PAT, I would go for two. Now you're down by 9 -- two scores -- because you didn't kick the FG.

This is all assuming a 99 yard TD drive which is highly unlikely.

[-Jrabbit]

Doesn't matter. In your scenario, even if the 99-yd drive doesn't happen, I still have the lead. All I have to do is possess the ball. And if you DO kick the FG, I need a 2-pt conversion for a 7-point lead. You still have a shot.

It points out the weakness of your argument, because you've put yourself in a position where the opponents can put the game out of reach. If you kick the stupid FG, they can't.

[Al B. Sure!]

It points out the weakness of your argument, because you've put yourself in a position where the opponents can put the game out of reach. If you kick the stupid FG, they can't.

From their own 1 yard line.

I wish I could pull up statistics on this... What do you think the probability is of scoring a TD from the 1 yard line? How do you think it compares to the probability of scoring a FG or TD on a drive starting from your own 1 yard line?

I have no data but I am positive if you run the probabilities, you would be better off going for it.

[-Jrabbit]

I understand the probabilities, Albert. That's obvious. But all that gives you is the most points on the board over a sample of many games and many teams. It's a macro view.

But we're not talking about mathematical models and general strategic analysis. We are talking about Ho To Win This Game, Right Now.

The flaw in your argument is that it applies to a theoretically neutral game scenario. If you're an NFL coach, you have to judge what's going on in front of you, at this moment, in THIS game situation. And if you saw the repeated failure of Kreutz and company moving Suh and company off the ball, you would have known -- the Bears were NOT getting in the end zone, at that time, in this game. GIVEN THAT FACT, you take the FG, every time.

You're welcome.

[H Tower]

I still don't like the incompletion call against the Lions. If the NFL wants to make a clear rule, why don't they just change it to "The receiver must maintain possession of the football until a referee notifies the receiver that the play has ended and that the receiver must now hand the referee the football." That pretty much was the interpretation of the rule today anyways.

[Al B. Sure!]

Wow... The Cowboys with 4 seconds to go in the half

[SlowwHand]

Don't anyone say a word to me about the last play of the half, or anything about this game. Not one word. GOT IT?!

[Al B. Sure!]

I still don't like the incompletion call against the Lions. If the NFL wants to make a clear rule, why don't they just change it to "The receiver must maintain possession of the football until a referee notifies the receiver that the play has ended and that the receiver must now hand the referee the football." That pretty much was the interpretation of the rule today anyways.

Do all of you live in the Midwest or something? I'm surprised by how much discussion a game between two bottom dwellers is getting I know it didn't get national coverage.

[Al B. Sure!]

Don't anyone say a word to me about the last play of the half, or anything about this game. Not one word. GOT IT?!

"one of the dumbest plays I've ever seen" -Rodney Harrison

[Al B. Sure!]

Hmm... 4 seconds to go from your own 36 yard line... pass rush so no, can't chuck it to the endzone... I know! Toss a lateral to Tashard Choice because he can run to the endzone!

[SlowwHand]

I just saw the play being discussed previously. It was a catch, I don't care what they use as an excuse.

[H Tower]

Do all of you live in the Midwest or something? I'm surprised by how much discussion a game between two bottom dwellers is getting I know it didn't get national coverage.

Your join date says 1999, but your question says you haven't been here very long.

[Al B. Sure!]

Sloww,

ALEX BARRON. ALEX "THIS IS NOT MY FIRST RODEO" BARRON.

That is all.