Apolyton Fantasy Football D/ST League Draft

[MRT144]

I'll say this is defense of my RB corps; Spiller may very well be the best rookie RB out there and if he performs top 20 then I have very little concerns.

[snoopy369]

On the specifics, Imran and Sloww are definitely way too low in your rankings; even a negative view of Sloww's gambles would put him in the playoffs, and probably worst case scenario is fifth. Imran's also definitely in the playoffs. You said you liked everything except his backup QB and yet ranked him eighth?

I'd say, without using the rankings, that the playoff six are going to be six of these seven (in no particular order)
(Jaguar, Imran, Slowwhand, Snoopy369, Berzerker, Ozzykp, Guynemer)
with Flash9286 and Al B as the next out, and possibly competing for the last spot if they hit a gold mine or two of the top seven get a big injury.

[snoopy369]

I'll say this is defense of my RB corps; Spiller may very well be the best rookie RB out there and if he performs top 20 then I have very little concerns.

Umm, I disagree. You need two or three starting RBs in the top 30 to have a shot (remember, ALL of us should have 2 in the top 30), and just having Spiller finish in the top 20 (which is unlikely) isn't nearly enough. The rest of your RBs would have to massively outperform to have a decent chance, despite your higher quality WR/QB.

[MRT144]

Hightower and Sproles will outperform based on PPR alone.

[MRT144]

Imran's WR should be above average but I can see him losing games because they just don't get the rock enough. And if SJax doesnt get TDs per last year and Hightower is a PPR and TD vulture on Beanie, then his team will suffer.

[snoopy369]

Neither Hightower nor Sproles are expected to be top 30, PPR or not; both certainly could hit the top 30 if something dramatic happens (Beanie gets fumblitis, Matthews sucks) but they just don't have the frequency of use to hit top 30 status. And even hitting top 30, again, EVERY team should have a pair of top 30 backs. To actually win you need more than that.

[OzzyKP]

I ranked everyone 1-14 based on QB, RB, WR, and DEF, both taking into account strength of starter (2/3 weight) and strength of bench (1/3 weight), and then weighted them 2:3:2:1 based on how important the positions are (and numerous) to the success of a team. Then I added the totals up, and lowest total = first, to highest total=last. (TE and K are both less significant, and harder to predict, than the four primary positions, so I left them off.)

My predicted order of finish (not taking into account matchups, which is a huge determiner of finish of course):

Slowwhand
Snoopy369
Imran
OzzyKP
Jaguar
Berzerker
Joncha
Flash9286
MRT
Al B
Guynemer
Spaced Cowboy
Duke o'York
Jonny


The team that seems most underrated by this metric: Guynemer, who is primarily affected by the WR ranking and by the fact that he doesn't have one single 'high' category like most of the other good teams.

Cool to be ranked 4th without TE being considered. With a fairly elite TE I'm rather pleased with how I may fare.

I realize much hinges on VJ for me. High risk, high reward.

On the other hand, there is usually at least one WR who comes out of nowhere to have a great season; if I can identify and claim him early, I may be alright.

That was my thought with Victor Cruz. I should have waited another round or two though.

[MRT144]

Neither Hightower nor Sproles are expected to be top 30, PPR or not; both certainly could hit the top 30 if something dramatic happens (Beanie gets fumblitis, Matthews sucks) but they just don't have the frequency of use to hit top 30 status. And even hitting top 30, again, EVERY team should have a pair of top 30 backs. To actually win you need more than that.

Harrison could be top 30. Also, how many teams in our league have two top 30 backs? 5-6?

[Al B. Sure!]

Harrison could be top 30. Also, how many teams in our league have two top 30 backs? 5-6?

Too many teams in the NFL use platoons anyway... it's hard to even say what a top 30 back is anymore. Take with your picks, for example, Fred Jackson could get 20+ carries a game while CJ Spiller does little, vice versa, or they split carries. Same deal with Harrison versus Hardesty. There's no way to know if either back will be a top 30 back or just that the platoon will result in both of them being okay but not top 30.

Of course, some platoons are good for both players (ie- Brown/Williams, Stewart/Williams, Jacobs/Ward a little while ago, or Taylor/Jones-Drew a few years ago)

[snoopy369]

MRT, I think you may have difficult with math.

Top 30 means there are 30 backs available in the top 30. If only 6 had 2 top 30 backs (12), and you took the other 8 teams and gave each one top 30 back, you would have 10 more backs to give to the 6 teams that already have 2. So 6 of us would have 3 or 4 top 30 backs and the other 8 have only one? Unlikely. Not many managers drafted such as to have 3 top 30 backs, not to mention 4.

More likely, most teams have 2 top 30 backs. I'd guess 11 or 12 will have two top 30 backs, and you're one of the two or so who doesn't. Harrison might be top 30 - he's probably your best bet, really - but by no means assured; Hardesty might end up with half or more of the carries in CLE (not to mention Davis) and CLE won't necessarily have a lot of RB points available in the first place. More likely no back in CLE ends up in the top 30.

[Al B. Sure!]

MRT, I think you may have difficult with math.

Top 30 means there are 30 backs available in the top 30. If only 6 had 2 top 30 backs (12), and you took the other 8 teams and gave each one top 30 back, you would have 10 more backs to give to the 6 teams that already have 2. So 6 of us would have 3 or 4 top 30 backs and the other 8 have only one? Unlikely. Not many managers drafted such as to have 3 top 30 backs, not to mention 4.

More likely, most teams have 2 top 30 backs. I'd guess 11 or 12 will have two top 30 backs, and you're one of the two or so who doesn't. Harrison might be top 30 - he's probably your best bet, really - but by no means assured; Hardesty might end up with half or more of the carries in CLE (not to mention Davis) and CLE won't necessarily have a lot of RB points available in the first place. More likely no back in CLE ends up in the top 30.

MRT just had to be the follower to Jaguar and grab a QB... and then had to grab a TE so early as well... left his RB's hurting

[MRT144]

You can of course guess wildly at who will be a top 30 back but I'm at least not figuring that some of them will be locks on top 30. There's 6 teams that have locks on top 30 backs, imho.

Jonny, 1 top 30 back
Berz, 3 top 30 backs
Snoopy, 3 Top 30 backs
Flash, 1-3 Top 30 backs
Jaguar, 3-4 Top 30 backs
Al, 2 Top 30 backs
MRT, 1-2 Top 30 backs
Spaced, 2 Top 30 backs
Ozzy 1-3, Top 30 backs
Joncha 1-3, Top 30 Backs
Duke 1 Top 30 back
Imran, 2-3 Top 30 backs
Guynemer, 1-2 Top 30 Backs
Slowwhand, 1-2 Top 30 backs

[Imran Siddiqui]

Imran's WR should be above average but I can see him losing games because they just don't get the rock enough

I can see that argument. Though I think having the WR depth will allow cycling WRs to take advantage of matchups during the season.

[-Jrabbit]

Originally Posted by snoopy369
[snip]
My predicted order of finish (not taking into account matchups, which is a huge determiner of finish of course)
[snip]

Aren't you guys playing a balanced schedule?

[MRT144]

Aren't you guys playing a balanced schedule?

Yeah, but for example, unless I get my team in order, Jaguar will easily win week 10 against me.