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  • #31
    1) Who said anything about you taking a QB?
    2) Why would you care if someone did in fact say something?
    3) Yes, Imran would still likely be a slut.
    Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
    "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
    He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

    Comment


    • #32


      Jaguar, did you just interview yourself? What the ****?
      "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
      "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

      Comment


      • #33
        Q and A format is automatically hilarious. Mostly, I wanted to give an exposition on why my scoring system is awesome, and actually appropriately rewards high-achieving QBs and WRs.
        "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

        Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

        Comment


        • #34
          Q: What are your thoughts on Jaguar's analysis?
          A: I don't like it. For one, he kind of is screwing with my strategy. I don't want to see a run on QB's now because people read what Jaguar posted I felt with the 6th overall pick I was in a tough spot without any of the top RB's left on the table, too high of a pick to consider Andre Johnson, and a waste to go for Drew Brees when, under normal circumstances, one of the top QB's, possibly a Philip Rivers or Brett Favre, would still be around for my 2nd or maybe even 3rd pick. Jaguar is clearly trying to manipulate posters' opinions to affect established draft strategy that many of us are counting on

          Q: But what about Jaguar's analysis? Is it accurate?
          A: He makes a good point but I don't see the logic in comparing Peyton Manning to Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan will probably not be drafted as a weekly starter in this or any league, even with 14 teams. Not to mention that his comparison is misleading because Ryan missed two games.

          Here's some better comparisons to guys who fall just outside of the top tier (so no Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub; any of those guys you might possibly miss by taking one or even two skill position players before a QB):

          Peyton Manning: 517 points (not 516; Jaguar missed a point somewhere)
          Brett Favre: 487 points
          Phillip Rivers: 447 points
          Ben Roethlisberger: 424 points
          Eli Manning: 384 points (Eli lost 8 fumbles last year! That killed him)
          Kyle Orton: 368 points
          Donovan McNabb: 351 points (Missed two games)
          Hell, for ****s and giggles:
          Vince Young: 207 points over only 10 games which assuming his averages remained constant, over a 16 game season would've been 332 points

          Clearly, while there is a drop off between Peyton Manning and a Matt Ryan or Vince Young, you're not going to be drafting those guys as starters (and if you are, you've probably drafted a team that's stacked at RB and WR to be picking a QB so late so who cares?).

          Also, his comparison to Steven Jackson is misleading as well. A better comparison would be to Frank Gore who the next poster (myself) picked. Let's see how he stacks up with the kind of guys you'd normally be forced to settle for by snatching a QB early and waiting til the 2nd and 3rd rounds to get your RB:
          Frank Gore: 251 points
          Marion Barber: 182 points
          Fred Jackson: 178 points
          Pierre Thomas: 174 points
          Knowshon Moreno: 172 points
          Cadillac Williams: 160 points
          Brandon Jacobs: 144 points

          Now the raw numbers only tell half the story. You have to consider what sort of drop-off happens by waiting til your 2nd or 3rd pick to grab a QB or your RB's.

          Now let's compare. What is the % difference in points between P. Manning and your later QB's and F. Gore and your later RB's:

          QB's
          Brett Favre: -6%
          Phillip Rivers: -13%
          Ben Roethlisberger: -18%
          Eli Manning: -26%
          Kyle Orton: -29%
          Donovan McNabb: -32% (missed two games)

          RB's
          Marion Barber: -27%
          Fred Jackson: -29%
          Pierre Thomas: -31%
          Knowshon Moreno: -31%
          Cadillac Williams: -36%
          Brandon Jacobs: -43%

          Clearly, the drop off with RB's is significant, especially with the prevalence of RB by committee. Each of those 6 RB's are representative of the type you'd have to settle for in the 2nd or 3rd round and each of the 6 share carries.

          Q: So what's your recommendation?
          A: Despite what Jaguar says, our league's scoring isn't different enough from an average Fantasy Football league to warrant a complete change in strategy.
          "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
          "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

          Comment


          • #35
            Well played, AS. You are aware that I want other people to draft QBs ASAP, given my choosing one.

            However, on the other hand, you know I genuinely believe my strategy; I followed it.

            A few points to make, though, in cases where I think your arguments are faulty:

            Percentage basis is irrelevant. In theory, if there was a position that scored billions and billions of points, with slight variation from player to player, you'd want to draft the best players at that position first.

            Obviously, our league isn't that imbalanced. I've been picking out league settings for a long time, and I've been trying to get the QB/RB balance just right for years.

            For the record, I have Peyton Manning slated for about 503 points next year, with a baseline of about 330, putting him 173 over baseline. (Joe Flacco is the QB closest to my "baseline" number.) Drew Brees is slated for 499 points, or 169 over baseline. 124 points (my rating for Reggie Bush) is the baseline for RBs, and I have Chris Johnson about 175 above baseline at 299.

            Q: Why, Jaguar, do you have Chris Johnson regressing far more points than Peyton?
            A: Glad you asked! It is far, far more typical for a top fantasy RB to suddenly regress spectacularly (Priest Holmes, LT, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson) than it is for Peyton Manning or Drew Brees to suddenly regress.

            My actual draft board looks something like this:

            175 Chris Johnson
            174 Ray Rice
            173 Peyton Manning
            170 Maurice Jones-Drew
            169 Drew Brees

            Q: Jaguar, why not Adrian Peterson?
            A: He is poor on receptions, where the other three backs are strong, and the Vikings offense is about to suffer from a massive regression. AP will have fine rushing yardage, but falter in TDs. Nonetheless, his innate talent still places him at least 150 points over baseline, which makes him an excellent first rounder.

            Q: Jaguar, you are aware that the Q and A format is douchey, right?
            A: Of course, but I kind of like being douchey.
            "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

            Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

            Comment


            • #36
              Q: Jaguar makes mention of it being statistically unlikely for an RB to repeat a great year. Any thoughts on this?
              A: I think that actually undermines Jaguar's point! Yes, of course, it's less likely for an RB to consistently be among the top fantasy scorers over several years (meaning they are top in yardage AND TD's, TD's being a very variable and difficult thing to predict to begin with) than it is for a QB. Also, RB's are much more likely to suffer from injuries, particularly injuries that limit them from playing, than QB's.

              However, all this means is that the RB position, for fantasy purposes, is riskier than the QB position. In fact, ESPN's Matthew Berry noted that only 11 of the backs selected before last season in the top 20 among RB's actually ended the season in the top 20 among RB scorers in standard ESPN scoring formats. That means that little more than half of the top 20 RB picks actually generated top 20 value.

              That only lends credence to the idea that you should pick value right away; you want as much of a sure-thing as possible in such a volatile market. Chris Johnson or Ray Rice or Maurice Jones Drew represent a pinnacle of as sure a thing as you can get when drafting RB's.

              If you wait to draft RB's, you're exposing yourself to more risk unnecessarily given the opportunity to select an RB in the first round.

              The fact is, just as we all have a good idea of what Peyton Manning will do next year, we all also have a good idea of what Eli Manning is going to do next year. You can also say the same about Chris Johnson. Can you say the same about Fred Jackson? Are you willing to take the risk?
              "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
              "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

              Comment


              • #37
                I hate to break up the comedy routine you two have going, but was MRT pm'd?
                Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by SlowwHand View Post
                  Q: I hate to break up the comedy routine you two have going, but was MRT pm'd?
                  A: I just did, just for you Slowwy!
                  "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                  Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    A big thank-you to Spaced Cowboy, who left me a list.

                    Reasons Why Leaving a List is Awesome:
                    1. You are safe from being BAPAYed.
                    2. It moves the draft along much faster. I'm doing independent study this summer, and can basically be online all the time, so I'll get your pick (and maybe the picks of several people after you) in immediately after your turn starts.
                    3. It lets you think about your picks in advance, instead of being in a huge rush all of a sudden when it's your turn.
                    4. Slowwy won't yell at you!
                    "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                    Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      The first 3 are absolutely true. Number 4? At least there's a better chance that I won't.
                      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Sorry for being so slow. Alright...I pick...Aaron Rodgers
                        "I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
                        'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012

                          When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - Rah

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by OzzyKP View Post
                            "I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
                            'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Al B. Sure! View Post
                              Q: Jaguar makes mention of it being statistically unlikely for an RB to repeat a great year. Any thoughts on this?
                              A: I think that actually undermines Jaguar's point! Yes, of course, it's less likely for an RB to consistently be among the top fantasy scorers over several years (meaning they are top in yardage AND TD's, TD's being a very variable and difficult thing to predict to begin with) than it is for a QB. Also, RB's are much more likely to suffer from injuries, particularly injuries that limit them from playing, than QB's.

                              However, all this means is that the RB position, for fantasy purposes, is riskier than the QB position. In fact, ESPN's Matthew Berry noted that only 11 of the backs selected before last season in the top 20 among RB's actually ended the season in the top 20 among RB scorers in standard ESPN scoring formats. That means that little more than half of the top 20 RB picks actually generated top 20 value.

                              That only lends credence to the idea that you should pick value right away; you want as much of a sure-thing as possible in such a volatile market. Chris Johnson or Ray Rice or Maurice Jones Drew represent a pinnacle of as sure a thing as you can get when drafting RB's.

                              If you wait to draft RB's, you're exposing yourself to more risk unnecessarily given the opportunity to select an RB in the first round.

                              The fact is, just as we all have a good idea of what Peyton Manning will do next year, we all also have a good idea of what Eli Manning is going to do next year. You can also say the same about Chris Johnson. Can you say the same about Fred Jackson? Are you willing to take the risk?
                              I want to get some distribution graphs on PPG for QBs vs. RBs.
                              "I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
                              'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Because MRT is a homo, I'll post for him. No going back now, sucker.

                                01.01 Jonny - Chris Johnson - RB - TEN
                                01.02 Berzerker - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - JAX
                                01.03 snoopy - Ray Rice - RB - BAL
                                01.04 Flash9286 - Adrian Peterson - RB - MIN
                                01.05 Jaguar - Peyton Manning - QB - IND
                                01.06 Al B. - Frank Gore - RB - SF
                                01.07 MRT - Aaron Rodgers - QB - GB
                                01.08 Spaced Cowboy -
                                01.09 OzzyKP -
                                01.10 joncha -
                                01.11 duke o' york -
                                01.12 Imran -
                                01.13 Guynemer -
                                01.14 Sloww -
                                "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                                "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

                                Comment

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