MLB - 2009 Regular Season Thread!!

[reismark]

No we didn't. Back when Bonds was breaking Aaron's record, there were people all over the place saying they hope A-Rod takes it back from Bonds so a non-roided player has the record again.

True enough.

Doesn't change my point at all, though.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Regardless, it is still important in one aspect that maybe some of these sanctimonious HOF voters will put players like McGwire in (nah... who am I kidding).

Or it allows people to realize it was a more widespread problem than "a couple of bad apples".

[Stuie]

Ryan Howard's payday has arrived. Honestly, I'm wondering how his numbers will hold up over the long term. More than any other deal, I think new GM Amaro may end up getting reviled for this one. Ibanez may end up looking like a bargain.

http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20090208_Howard_signs_for_three_years___54_million.html

[Imran Siddiqui]

Jeez, $18 Mil a year for 3 years in this market?!

[snoopy369]

Less than Manny's asking for, for similar production ...

[Imran Siddiqui]

You must have a very different definition of "similar"

Just taking OPS+

Howard:

2005: 133
2006: 167
2007: 144
2008: 124

Manny:

2005: 153
2006: 165
2007: 126
2008: 164

Howard is 29 compared to Ramirez's 36 (37 on May 30), but it is looking more and more like that 2006 season was the outlier.

[reismark]

MLB - Non A-Rod Discussion

Here's a thread for MLB discussion for those of you who are as sick of the A-Rod story now as I was the day the story first broke.

And we'll start with something that has my eyes rolling clear back into my skull:

Red Sox owner renews call for salary cap

"The Yankees have spent like the U.S. Congress."

"[A salary cap is] as inevitable as tomorrow."

"I think we all agree that competitive balance is an issue and if there was a way to put together an enlightened form of a salary cap, I think everybody among the ownership parties would support it. I think it's quite possible to put together a partnership between the players and owners going forward. I think it's something that should be at least explored."

"[We need] to deal with a team that has gone so insanely far beyond the resources of all the other teams."

And blah blah blah, whine whine, b!tch b!tch moan. C'mon, guys. You know and we know and the rest of the world knows that if you had the Yankees' money, you'd spend to kingdom come too. Your disingenuous nature on this issue is a big part of the reason why the Red Sox are the real Evil Empire.

[Arrian]

PECOTA projected standings are out...

AL East projections have the Sox with 98 wins, the Yanks with 96, the Rays with 91, Jays with 81 and Orioles with 74.

I think it's pretty obvious that the Sox and Yanks are more susceptible to age-related decline and injury (at least wrt position players) than the Rays, who could see some of their hitters take a step forward this year. I think most people are expecting some regression in their pitching, though. They got a ridiculous number of starts from their rotation last year and their pen was insanely good. The O's are starting to put together something resembling a real baseball team with upside. I wouldn't be surprised if they escaped the cellar.

In other divisions... once again PECOTA forecasts a "meh" showing for the Angels (84 wins) and I think that, once again, the Angels will somehow do better. The AL Central is projected to be crazy close, with all the teams right around .500. In the NL East, the Mets are projected to win (92 wins) with the Phillies and Braves duking it out for 2nd (87 wins each). The Cubs run away with the NL Central (95) with the Brewers in 2nd (86). The D-Backs are projected to win the NL West (92 wins) ahead of the Dodgers (84 wins).

I dunno if the Mets win 92 with that rotation. Nice pullen upgrade, Omar, but who pitches innings 1-6?

I assume the Dodgers pick up a few wins if they resign Manny. The wrapup:

All in all, last year's expected standings were off by an average of about 8.5 games (simple average). While I certainly hope we can do better than that this year, some of the errors are the result of injuries, trades, and signings that haven't happened yet.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Rays are somewhat interesting, because you will have a full season of Price and let's see how that goes. That may blunt any of the regression. Kazmir may also have a healthy season. Burrell's offense should also help.

[snoopy369]

Kazmir may also have a healthy season.

Pigs also might fly ...

or should that be, The Cubs might win the world series also ...

[Imran Siddiqui]

So what exactly was your opinion of the 2007 season when the pigs were all over the skys?

[snoopy369]

I'll believe it when I see it, is all I'm saying. I'd be more than happy for him to go the full year healthy. But I'd also be more than happy to see Jim Thome hit his 600th in 2010, and I'm not putting any money on the proposition in Vegas...

[Imran Siddiqui]

All I'm saying is that you DID see it. It was called 2007.

You know, the year when Kazmir was #1 in starts?

[snoopy369]

A broken clock is right once in a while... Mark Prior had 200+ innings one year as well... look how well that turned out for him...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Kazmir's rookie year, he had 32 starts and 186 innings pitched.

So... right 2 out of his 4 years?