MLB - 2008 All Star Break and Beyond!

[Arrian]

I like that Burrell deal for the Rays. They're smart and stuff (damnit). I'm still wondering what the hell the Phillies did... you ditch Burrell in favor of Ibanez, for more money and years? Wow.

The Yanks got the big 2 I wanted (CC & Tex) and royally pissed me off by getting Burnett too (5 years? FIVE? WTF!?!!!). Their payroll will end up basically unchanged from last year (~$200 million, give or take a few).

As for salary cap... nah. Just stick another team or two in the NYC area. That's the real issue. A salary cap doesn't solve other problems (like "small market" owners refusing to really invest in their teams, the fact that not all of a MLB team's expenditures are on the MLB roster, the messed-up draft system, etc.). I'm all for attempting to reform MLB to seek greater fairness, but a salary cap alone doesn't get it done (and ****s over the players in favor of the owners... but not the fans).

-Arrian

p.s. And it should be noted that, for all the whining about financial disparity, baseball is a variable enough sport that "poor" teams have done pretty damn well (though not generally as well as rich ones) in the recent past. Besides, admit it, ya'll LOVE hating the Yankees. That has real value for MLB.

[Arrian]

Any chance the Twinkies start spending more?

Only if the apple falls from the tree and then rolls a bit...

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Burrell deal starts having ramifications:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3813273

The deal would pay Giambi, who started his major league career in Oakland, $4 million in 2009 with a $6.5 million base salary for the option year in 2010. The second year would also provide for a $1.25 million buyout.

Lest we forget, Giambi had a 128 OPS+ last season and would likely play DH for the A's. Great deal.

[Arrian]

He did, in fact, have a good OPS+. His health and defense, however...

If they could full-time DH him and keep him healthy, it's a fantastic deal. They probably can't do either, let alone both, so I think it falls more into the "good" deal category. But that's a quibble.

Man, the guys left on the market must be starting to feel like they're in the worse game of musical chairs EVER.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

He's going to be a DH. And what's this health thing? He played 145 games last year. In 2006 he played 139 games and 2005 he played 139 games. In 2007, yes, he was injured, but his last four years don't look too shabby in terms of health.

[Arrian]

Don't the As have Cust? I read somewhere that the plan would be to DH Cust and play Giambi at 1B. If that's not true, ok.

As for health, it goes beyond games played. He's always got a nagging this and a "barking" that and you see it in the performance (granted, that is then figured in to a 128 OPS+). There will be stretches wherein he's utterly useless. Taking his PAs, yes, but not doing much with them because his knee hurts or whatever.

And 145 games is less than a season (162). Add in age (39), and I doubt that number goes up - even if he exclusively DHs.

Anyway, I'm not hating on Giambi or the deal. I actually wish the big lug luck. It's just that I've watched him play for my team since 2002, and we've crunched the numbers on him too on various blogs. He's good, but he's got drawbacks. Again, if the As truely keep him the hell away from a glove, then that should work well.

-Arrian

[-Jrabbit]

The Milton Bradley talk in Chicago is hilarious. People don't like his injury history, don't like his unstable personality, love his power/OB... really don't know what to make of it. Expcept everyone seems fine with Jason Marquis being gone.

The overriding sentiment seems to be: Nothing else has worked in the past 100 years, so why not?

[Arrian]

That's a reasonable assessment, IMO.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

To put it in perspective, 145 games is only 3 less than Cust played last year. And Cust is able to play RF (and has in the past). It's also the same number of games Kevin Youklis played in last season. It's a pretty decent amount for any field player.

Milton Bradley is a great pickup for the Cubs. Though yes, he is definitely a guy with a big injury history. Though can really hit it.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Tribe decide to take a flyer on Pavano:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3813706

$1.5 mil + incentives.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Fangraph's take on the Giambi signing:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/as-take-giambi-back/

Since the season ended, most people have assumed that Jason Giambi was going to end up back in Oakland. They needed some power in their line-up, even after the Matt Holiday acquisition, and Giambi enjoyed his greatest success as a player during his first stint in the Bay Area. The steroids stuff from a few years ago made him something of a pariah among many teams and fans, and his near replacement level performance in 2007 didn’t help his image at all. There just weren’t many teams interested in Giambi, so the presumption was that he’d have to take pretty much whatever Billy Beane offered him.

After seeing Buster Olney’s report of the terms of the deal that seems to be pretty much what happened. Here’s how the deal would break down in terms of valuing Giambi as a player if the rumored terms are true.

$5.25 million base salary in 2009, $1.25 million buyout of 2010 option or $4 million base salary in 2010.

Based on a $4.5 million per win estimate of the going rate for free agents, that would value Giambi as a 1.45 win player for 2009. However, the low salary base (with incentives, surely) for 2010 makes the buyout pretty unlikely to be exercised unless Giambi pulls an Andruw Jones. In reality, the deal is probably more like $11 million over two years, with an out clause for the A’s if Giambi is just unbelievably awful. That values Giambi at something closer to a 1.2 win player.

Giambi’s actual win values, by year, the last three years:

2006: 3.4
2007: 0.5
2008: 2.6

That’s a weighted average of 2.1 wins per year, and he missed half of the ‘07 season. His new deal values him at nearly half of his three year weighted average win value. Even factoring in age related decline and a move to DH, that’s some pretty serious discounting. There’s almost no downside to this deal for the A’s - they picked up a +1.5 to +2 win player for 75 cents on the dollar, and if he bombs, it has no long term repercussions.

With Holliday and Giambi joining the organization, the A’s have significantly improved their offense for 2009. The question will be sorting out all the at-bats for the various 1B/DH types, but the depth makes it much more likely that Oakland has an offense that can score some runs next year. The A.L. West continues to tighten.

[Arrian]

Good deal for the As, no doubt.

I think that breaks down his value vs. salary quite well. Obviously, we Yankee fans were evaluating a vastly different salary...

-Arrian

[-Jrabbit]

Maybe Cust can now hit 7th or 8th, where he belongs.

[Imran Siddiqui]

With Cust's OBP (by far the best on the A's last season) there is no way he's a 7th or 8th hitter. He'll likely bat 5th, where he belongs (or 6th may be fine depending on the lineup). Cust had a 132 OPS+ (which is higher than Giambi's as well), that's better than Vlad Guerrero's season last year (which was a down year). In addition, Cust had 2.55 Win Probability Added (WPA). Giambi had 1.96 WPA.

[Imran Siddiqui]

News coming out from Boston. They are about to sign John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli. Not really Teixiera type moves, but at least they are doing something (though $5 mil to Smoltz is a bit... well, high... for someone who is 42 and just came off a season ending massive injury)