The Goose Has Landed!

[-Jrabbit]

Originally posted by snoopy369
You need to add in "Playing in Boston" there, sir.

And, "Using performance enhancers and not getting caught"...

These (and others) are all quantifiable categories that the sabermetricians should consider in coming up with a HOF Prediction statistical analysis. My list was just a few obvious examples.

Performance statistics have been done to death. But we all know they're just one of many considerations in the accumulation of HOF votes. I hereby call on the sabermetricians to make themselves useful in parsing and predicting What Actually Happens, as opposed to endless discussions of stats (like Ben and Imran have been engaged in).

I also call for pitchers and catchers to report, so we'll have something worthwhile to talk about in this thread.

Oh, also: White Sox sign Octavio Dotel, then proclaim themselves competitive at annual fan convention. Funniest moment: Reinsdorf appearing to be serious when he stated the Sox pitching to be "better than Detroit's"...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
These (and others) are all quantifiable categories that the sabermetricians should consider in coming up with a HOF Prediction statistical analysis. My list was just a few obvious examples.

Performance statistics have been done to death. But we all know they're just one of many considerations in the accumulation of HOF votes. I hereby call on the sabermetricians to make themselves useful in parsing and predicting What Actually Happens, as opposed to endless discussions of stats (like Ben and Imran have been engaged in).

While you may be half joking (imagine that ), Bill James did come up with his Black Ink Test, Grey Ink Test, HoF Standards, and HoF Monitor based on how often a player led the league in certain stats or won awards (showing how voters seemed to like looking at that, rather than actually doing analysis of players).

Here:

Black Ink Test:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#black_ink

Grey Ink Test:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#gray_ink

Hall of Fame Standards:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#hof_standards

Hall of Fame Monitor:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#hof_monitor

Every player listed on baseball-reference have these listed on their player profile.

But, besides, sabermatricians are trying to CHANGE the debate, not perpetuate it .

[-Jrabbit]

These "tests" are reliant solely on baseball statistics and awards. Worthless. Critical institutional, societal and behavioral factors are completely ignored.

[Imran Siddiqui]

That's because they ask Ben Kenobi for those things .

[-Jrabbit]

Seems to me that SABR could really prove its case by producing two annual lists:
--list of all players who "deserve" to be enshrined
--prediction of the actual HOF vote totals for all eligible players (preferably going out 5 years)

If you're really trying to change the debate, you need to show how idiotic the ongoing methods are. Show the BBWA how it is continuing to screw things up by accurately predicting which deserving players will be passed over, and which undeserving players will be elected. This would provide real grist for the mill.

[Imran Siddiqui]

you need to show how idiotic the ongoing methods are

They already do that.

It's called the non-election of Bert Blyleven.

Or the text of Bill James' "Politics of Glory".

It's kind of useless to predict who will get in and won't. All they can do is point out who should and hope the BBWAA can be swayed.

Then again, after how the BBWAA treated Rob Neyer and Keith Law, two sabermetrically inclined writers, more of the sabermetric community may be just willing to to write off the whole HoF.

[-Jrabbit]

I've always felt the best plan was to wait for all the stupid writers to die off, but they just keep replacing them with younger version while managing to ignore virtually all non-print media outlets. It's a bit inbred and sick -- much like MLB itself.

If SABR really wants to change the discussion, they need to quantify the sins of the BBWAA by showing the specific, non-baseball correlatives. This should be fairly straighforward statistically -- although they might need to employ social science types to help identify the key factors.

My point: If SABR can prove how non-baseball factors can be used to prove the past idiotic voting records of the writers -- and then kick it up a notch by predicting future idiocy -- they might actually get MLB's attention.

Arguing about Rice, Blyleven, et al. is just that -- more arguments with blowhards. Frankly, the writers like nothing better. It substantiates the power they hold over the process, and dooms SABR to failure in affecting HOF voting for the better.

I have no idea what happened with Neyer and Law (don't care much either). But if SABR decides to blow it off, then y'all can just go back to using your mad skillz to draft great fantasy teams. And nothing more.

[Imran Siddiqui]

y'all can just go back to using your mad skillz to draft great fantasy teams. And nothing more.

Err... *cough* Billy Beane? Theo Epstein?

You realize that the Hall of Fame isn't the primary aspect where sabermetrics is focusing things on, right? When they are breaking into the front offices around MLB, the Hall of Fame just becomes more of a hobby .

[-Jrabbit]

Whatever, dude. I was just trying to troll you away from the discussion with Ben.
Mission accomplished.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well, you haven't necessarily succeeded. You did your thing while Ben hasn't responded to my last post .

[-Jrabbit]

I understand that. But at least I tried -- for the good ot the subforum.
If nothing else, at least I diverted the topic for awhile.

[snoopy369]

JR
SABR

[Imran Siddiqui]

Reminds me, I have to pay my SABR dues!

[snoopy369]

You go do that...

[Arrian]

400 hrs and .300 hitting isn't something that Yaz managed to do in his long career

Yes, he has more then that 385 HRs and a .300 batting average.

Umm, Rice hit .298 with 382 home runs. You're rounding up.

With regard to my OBP comparison using your list of HoFers who you think are similar to Rice based on BA and HRs (setting aside the fact that most of them had significantly higher BAs and many hit a lot more HRs), I showed you the biggest weakness in Rice's game as compared to legit HoFers - his weak OBP relative to the league average during his time. The difference is stark. I said that "most if not all" of those HoFers had really good OBPs. Once I went and looked, I'd like to amend that to ALL. Every one of them had OBPs that are much, much better than Rice's.

You concede that Rice is clearly inferior to those guys. Ok, good. Now quit using that list of players to try and make a case for Rice.

Add in his meh defense in LF, his GIDPs and his poor performance in the playoffs (limited sample, to be sure), and I just don't see a case for Jim Rice.

I get that you like high batting averages. They're fun. But .298 is not a particularly high BA (not when we're talking HoF). Ichiro is another matter. The guy hit .372 (in one season). I generally agree with Imran about his overall value, but hitting .372 is cool. Hitting, say, .338 for a career is cool (Tony Gwynn). Of course, Tony had a .388 career OBP, which meant that not only could he hit for average, but he could also control the strike zone in a way Jim Rice couldn't.

Even if you consider Bernie worthy, you have to remember that he has only 60 percent of the home runs that Rice has.

I don't see why an induction for Rice means that Bernie would get one too.

1. Sure, Bernie didn't hit as many HRs. Then again, he had a much better batting eye. He got on base at a better clip. He also performed well overall in the post-season (though he was extremely hot & cold), in a large sample of appearances.

2. Bernie Williams was a Centerfielder. CFs don't hit usually hit like that. Bernie vs. average CFer > Rice vs. average LFer.

3. Putting Rice in the hall doesn't necessarily put Bernie in, no. But the more you put in guys like Rice, the more people will say "hey, what about this guy, then?" It's not just Bernie, it's a lot of other guys.

I loved watching Bernie play. He's one of my favorites. But I don't think he's a HoFer. I think his case is stronger than Jim Rice's case (not dramatically so). I simply used him as an example.

-Arrian