Fantasy Hockey - Less Fantasy, More Hockey

[Asher]

http://bitterleaf.blogspot.com/

I vented earlier about the Leafs man games lost to injury meme and sure enough in the very first post-elimination story to hit the wire (filed by Pierre Le Brun for CP) there it was: the most man games lost to injury.

Boo hoo.

Yeah, the Leafs did miss 353 man games, but before we use that little meme as a crutch let's have a look at how that total is generated:

Injuries
Player Games Missed
Wozniewski 59
Peca 47
Wellwood 34
Colaiacovo 34
Antropov 24
Tucker 26
Kubina 20
Ponikarovsky 11
Kaberle 8
Sundin 7
Misc. Scrubs 79


Knock of Woz and the day to day injuries suffered by the likes of Newbury and suddenly 130+ of those games disappear.

Antropov is good to miss a quarter of the season every year, so let's not let JFJ's tear ducts go into overdrive just yet. Add in Cola's trips to the IR and that total of 353 is down to 150 or so, which is likely low for for most NHL clubs.

Did injuries hurt the Leafs? Yes, but is the league-leading stat really all that revealing or is it a red herring? Unless Woz is the missing link for the Leafs, this shouldn't provide any sort of excuse for JFJ not to be jettisoned.

Calgary's man-games lost to injury this year was 235.
The Oilers have lost 257.

Depth is key...

As for Raycroft being "average"

Raycroft's stats (based on goalies who played 18+ games):
42nd best Save Percentage
37th best Goals Against Average
58th in Goals Against (Dead Last - no goalie gave up more goals this year)

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Tingkai
Raycroft proved average overall but he did get 37 wins and logged lots of minutes.

And this is a perfect example of why comparing wins now to wins pre-lockout is meaningless. Raycroft set a club record for wins, yet seven goaltenders posted more wins than him this year and another one tied him. On top of which, of those seven that had more wins, four did it in fewer games.

Oh, and BTW: Among starting goaltenders, only four had a worse GAA and three had a worse save percentage than Raycroft - and I'm including both Denis and Holmquist on that list.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Kontiki
And this is a perfect example of why comparing wins now to wins pre-lockout is meaningless. Raycroft set a club record for wins, yet seven goaltenders posted more wins than him this year and another one tied him. On top of which, of those seven that had more wins, four did it in fewer games.

Oh, and BTW: Among starting goaltenders, only four had a worse GAA and three had a worse save percentage than Raycroft - and I'm including both Denis and Holmquist on that list.

But but but!

If you played hockey you'd realize that Raycroft is average! If the Leafs weren't injured they'd have won the cup! If you played hockey -- I PLAY HOCKEY -- you would know this!!!

[Ninot]

Leave the poor guy be. It's not like his team has won for him anytime in his lifetime.

[notyoueither]

You have a little less than 24 hours to post your picks for the 1st round along with the Conf. and SC Champs.

1st puck drops at 7pm ET Wed.

[mrboo123]

I was away from when the fantasy season ends, so now I guess I can brag about being the best of the worst

[cinch]

Explaining my picks from the other thread:
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Detroit vs Calgary: Detroit 4-2

It's not I think Detroit is necessarily invincible. I think, given the right circumstances, they could be knocked off by a good team. And Calgary is a very good team, don't get me wrong--but the way they played down the stretch seemed to indicate something was going rotten there. Add in the 'road factor,' and I really can't see them upsetting a solid Detroit team (unless maybe Zetterberg's back goes out for good--then all bets are off).


Anaheim vs Minnesota: Anaheim 4-3

Minnesota could easily win this series. At the end of the day, though, I just have to go with Pronger and Niedermayer on the back end. I mean, how can you bet against that? Both teams have good forwards and goalies, but Anaheim has the edge on defense, as well as with overall defense. Still, if Minny sticks to a team game, and Gaborik/Demitra get hot, things could go differently.


Vancouver vs Dallas : Vancouver 4-2

Vancouver is another team that could easily be eliminated, but I just don't think Dallas is the team to do it. Turco might show up, but I'm not sure if I buy their depth: Lindros? Ribeiro? Eh. Morrow, Modano, Lehtinen, and some of the veteran d-men are good, but this is Luongo's year, and I think they'll need a bit more to overcome the Roberto factor.


Nashville vs San Jose: San Jose 4-3

This one's just uncallable. Either team could make it to the conference finals, really. Still, only one can make it out of the first round, and I just have a feeling about San Jose. Oddly enough, I think Nashville's deeper on defense, has more experience up front, and has Vokoun, who, on his good days, is better than Nabokov or Toskala. Still, if San Jose's young guns (Michalek, Bernier, Clowe, etc.) catch fire and provide secondary scoring behind Big Joe, Cheechoo, Marleau, Guerin, & Co., they could pull this one out. But if Forsberg shows up and tosses in 3A/night, I'll be out in the cold.


Buffalo vs NY Islanders: Buffalo 4-1

I'll give the Isles one game on pure heart. After that, it's over. Maxim Afinogenov plays on Buffalos' THIRD LINE... It's just unfair how good the Sabres are. Their only 'weak link' might, MIGHT be their defense, which doesn't have that much shut-down power. It'll be more than enough to handle the Isles, however.


New Jersey vsTampa Bay: New Jersey 4-1

A suprising number of people are picking the Bolts to upset, but I just don't see it. Yes, Vinny Lecavalier has probably been the best player in the league recently, and yes, he has a decent enough supporting cast, but the Lightning d-corps just isn't deep enough, and their goaltending is... nonexistent. Even if this becomes a Tampa-style shootout, I still like New Jersey's chances to pump Holmqvist or Denis for 5 goals per night. Just 'cause the Devils are defense-first, doesn't mean that they have an abysmal offence.

Atlanta vs NY Rangers: NY Rangers 4-2

I don't buy the Thrashers at all. Hossa & Kozlov will probably show up. Kovalchuk... maybe? Who knows. Tkachuk's hardly clutch, and guys like Holik and Mellanby are good pieces to the puzzle, but won't be able to win the series for the rest of the lacklustre squad. Trading away a promising young blueliner for Alexei Zhitnik won't really help, either. They only stand a chance if Lehtonen shows up big-time. Now, I wouldn't pick the Rangers to go far, but I think the combo of a more seasoned Lundqvist, some chippiness and grind-power up front (Avery & the rest of the plugs), and having Shanny in there to support Jagr should put them over the top in this series. And hey, let's remember that one of the main reasons they folded so quickly last year was that Jagr went down to injury. If he stays healthy, he's a top-tier playoff performer.


Ottawa vs Pittsburgh: Ottawa 4-3

This is another one that could go either way. If Croz & the kids catch fire right off the bat, the Pens could pull it out. If they stumble, I think the Sens will take a quick lead and then hold them off for the rest of the series. Despite the 'choker' status, Ottawa's just a more well-rounded team. They have decent secondary scoring (Comrie, Saprykin, Fisher) that might rise to the occasion if the Big Three stumble. They also have one of the best defensive squads in the league, compared to Pittsburgh's offensively-okay-but-hardly-shutdown defense. And finally, I think Emery's a top-quality goalie, while Fleury could be shaky.


Western Conference: San Jose

Who knows? I kinda regret this already. Nashville could win the series easily. Whoever wins the Minny/Anaheim series also stands a good chance of heading to the finals. I just have a feeling that Thornton will finally step up and own a series or two or three, and that a lot of the role players (Grier, Pavelski, Clowe, Bernier) will add to the mix. Adding Rivet at the deadline also makes the Sharks' defense more legitimate. If Nabby or Toskala get hot, watch out.

Whatever happens, though, I'm pretty sure Detroit and Vancouver will go out in the second round.


Eastern Conference: Buffalo

As I said before, there's just too much talent here. 3 deadly forward lines--and that's not even counting rising star Drew Stafford; an offensively-talented and defensively-competent back-end; and an all-star goalie. It almost seems too good to be true--and it probably will be, and this will blow up in my face in the second round or so. But hey, if there was ever a team that looked like an absolute favourite, this is it.

Their achilles heel? Conks, of course. Anybody who watched Game 1 of the Finals last year knows that!

Stanley Cup: Buffalo

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[Tingkai]

Asher, you're just proving the old adage about types of lies.

Your blogger decides not to count some of the injured Leafs players, but you count all of the Oilers and Flames injuries.

The blogger discounts injuries of younger Leafs player, while ignoring the effect of injuries to veteran players.

The simple fact is that the Leafs had a whackload of injuries, more than many teams, and that affected their ability to win games.

Only you would say that injuries don't matter, or that a team "with depth" would not notice 353 man-games lost to injuries. And that's cause you don't play hockey.

As for Raycroft, when I said average, I was obviously making a general comment, not talking about exact statistical mean averages. Even if he had statistical averages, my point is that his biggest problem was his lack of performance in clutch games. He's no Cujo or Eddie.

And if you're going to cite end of season stats, including goalies who have played 18 games is not only odd (why in the world did you pick 18), but also pointless. You can't compare these guys to the regulars.

Also, goals against is not a valid measure of a goalie. It should be obvious that goalies who play a lot of games will have high goals against numbers.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Tingkai
As for Raycroft, when I said average, I was obviously making a general comment, not talking about exact statistical mean averages. Even if he had statistical averages, my point is that his biggest problem was his lack of performance in clutch games. He's no Cujo or Eddie.

No matter HOW you slice it, Raycroft was terrible. Not even "below average", let alone "average".

And if you're going to cite end of season stats, including goalies who have played 18 games is not only odd (why in the world did you pick 18), but also pointless. You can't compare these guys to the regulars.

Because it excludes the vast majority of backup goaltenders.

Also, goals against is not a valid measure of a goalie. It should be obvious that goalies who play a lot of games will have high goals against numbers.

Yes, that's why we have GAA numbers which Raycroft isn't adept at either. The GA number is funny because it shows he got way too much opportunity to make himself better.

"Kippersoft" faced the most amount of shots of any goaltender in the league and his numbers aren't nearly that high...

[Ming]

Could somebody direct me to the final standings of this fantasy league so I can add the winner to the records...

Thanks!

[Kontiki]

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=160751&pagenumber=2