Are You Ready for Some Football

[reismark]

Martyball lives

Good. They would have been doing both Marty and themselves a great disservice if they'd fired him after that highly unfortunate turn of events.

Anyway, seems to be that the Colts have the edge in talent and home field, but bettin' against the Pats is always dangerous. Works for me. I don't bet.

Works for me too. I bet on the Patriots.

[Darsnan]

Vick likely busted for Pot

Originally posted by reismark
Works for me too. I bet on the Patriots.

Yeah, I'm thinking all the Pats have to do is review the Indy/ Pittsburgh game from last years playoffs and see what the Steelers did to Manning then.

And on a different note, Vick's probably gonna be busted for Mayjane:

ATLANTA (AP) -- Michael Vick reluctantly surrendered a water bottle to security at Miami International Airport that contained a residue "closely associated with marijuana," police said Wednesday.

The Atlanta Falcons' quarterback entered a concourse Wednesday morning at the airport with the 20-ounce bottle. He eventually handed it over and boarded his flight to Atlanta. But his initial reluctance to turn over the bottle aroused suspicion among airport security screeners, a police report said.
The bottle was found to have a hidden compartment that contained "a small amount of dark particulate and a pungent aroma closely associated with marijuana," the report said. The compartment was hidden by the bottle's label so that it appeared to be a full bottle of water when held upright, police said.

No charges have been filed, but police said the bottle would be sent to a lab for analysis.

Vick did not immediately return a phone call early Thursday.

"We plan to look into the matter and discuss it with Michael Vick before having any further comment," Falcons spokesman Reggie Roberts said.

Link

D

[rah]

Sucks to be famous.

I was going through airport security a while ago with a buddy, and he set off the metal detector. He kind of hemmed and hawed when they asked him to empty his pockets. After a bit he did and pulled out a metal pipe used for smoking the evil weed. The security guards started laughing and said well it aint' explosives or a weapon but sorry to say we'll have to confiscate it.
And they let him board the plane and never even wrote down his name.

Of course it's probably not that he's famous but because he's black.

[Sava]

This site: http://actasports.com/sows.php did an analysis of 12 statistical categories that they've used as predictors the past 16 Super Bowls. It has predicted the past 14 Super Bowl winners.

In the Bears/Saints matchup, the Bears lead in 11 of the 12 categories.

Points Scored
Points Allowed
Point Differential
Fewer Net Passing Yards
Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards / Attempt
Opponent Net Passing Yards
Opponent Rushing Yards
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt
Opponent Total Yards / Game
Turnover Differential
Regular Season Record



Opponent Net Passing Yards is the only category where the Saints held an advantage over the Bears. Also, no dome team in the history of the NFL (since the merger) has come to a northern city and won a conference championship in an outdoor stadium.

The only team to lead in all categories was the '72 Dolphins. Four other teams have lead 11-1, and they all won the Super Bowl. The last was the '85 Bears.



I'm not saying... but I'm just sayin....


go Bears

[Arrian]

rah,

Your buddy must've been high to think he could take a metal pipe through airport security. Wow.

Ditto Vick.

Repeat after me: you don't take MJ on the plane. You don't take MJ on the plane. You don't take MJ on the plane...

-Arrian

[Arrian]

From Sava's link wrt to the AFC game:

Points Scored Colts
Points Allowed Patriots
Point Differential Patriots
Fewer Net Passing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards / Attempt Colts
Opponent Net Passing Yards Colts
Opponent Rushing Yards Patriots
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Patriots
Opponent Total Yards / Game Patriots
Turnover Differential Patriots
Regular Season Record Tie

Patriots take eight categories and the Colts only three. The AFC #4 seeded Patriots look to be in the Super Bowl yet again (third time in four years!) with a road win against the #3 seeded Colts.

This sounds kinda like the "secret sauce" analysis done by baseball stat-heads going into the '06 playoffs. They decided that teams with high-strikeout pitching staffs and HR power were good bets to win. The Tigers fit that profile to a T (though the Cards less so).

The one that strikes me as obviously key in football is turnover differential.

-Arrian

[rah]

Originally posted by Arrian
rah,

Your buddy must've been high to think he could take a metal pipe through airport security. Wow.

-Arrian

He was high, which is why he forgot to leave it in the car when he parked it.

In the old day jays in your cigarrete pack was an easy way. Needless to say I haven't tried that in quite a few years.

Heck there's a cig lighter ban but i have yet to be caught bringing one with me on every flight. My last trip across the pond, in the smoking section of heathrow, in the international terminal, 9 out of 10 smokers had them, so it's not an uncommon thing.

[Arrian]

I knew it.

I have a buddy who likes to go over to Amsterdam for his birthday. One time he got over there, threw on a pair of shorts and went for a walk. At one point, he stuck his hand in one of the pockets and, much to his shock & chagrin, pulled out a bowl. He had forgotten it was there, packed it up and flown to Amsterdam with it. I never did think to ask him if he was high when he was packing

He laid it to rest in a canal.

-Arrian

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian


The one that strikes me as obviously key in football is turnover differential.

The Bears led the league in takeaways with 44. New Orleans only had 19 and they were -4 in the differential. The Bears were +8, so even though they had so many, they gave up a lot. Grossman threw 20 or 21 interceptions IIRC.

Another key stat is regarding the Saints rushing offense. It's not as good as people think. For the year, they average 3.7 yards per carry. The great Reggie Bush only had a 3.6 yard per carry average. And that average was much worse when they played outdoors on natural grass.

Also, it's going to snow on Sunday. The Saint's offense is predicated on timing. They have been practicing indoors all week. The weather is surely going to mess up their passing game. And since they have had trouble running the ball, it's going to be difficult for them to establish much of a ground game in lieu of passing the ball.

Another thing going against the Saints is their run defense, which has been bad. They give up over 128 yards per game. The one-two punch of Jones and Benson is going to give their D some problems.

The Saints also lost 5 of their 6 games to teams under .500.

I simply don't understand why everyone thinks the Saints are going to walk into Chicago and win this game. It just boggles my mind.

[Arrian]

Grossman needs time in the pocket. When he's hurried, he's just awful. That was abundantly clear against the Seahawks.

As for the weather, I've heard the counter argument that the Saints passing game is mostly short, quick passes rather than deep vertical throws and, as such, it's less likely to be hindered by weather. Personally, it seems like dome teams stuggle in bad weather, so I'm inclined to agree with you.

-Arrian

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian


As for the weather, I've heard the counter argument that the Saints passing game is mostly short, quick passes rather than deep vertical throws and, as such, it's less likely to be hindered by weather.

Short, quick passes are more dependent upon timing than deep throws and just as vulnerable to the elements, if not more so because of the potential for disruption of that timing.

Deep throws can be affected by weather as it pertains to the flight of the ball, but a receiver can adjust his route to compensate... not so on timed routes... slants, quick outs, especially if they are based upon 3 or 5 step drops.

Also, short passes aren't going to beat the Bears because the Saints don't have any receivers who could potentially break away. The Bears are too quick on defense. The only way Colston could be a threat is in the medium range passing game because he could use his jumping ability to pull down so balls throw to the outside. It will be interesting to see who covers Colston. I think Tillman would probably have a better time than Vasher because he's more physical.

The only way the Saints passing game could conceivable exploit a weakness in the Bears passing defense is by dumping the ball off to Reggie Bush. It will be interesting to see if the screen is effective in the weather and how Urlacher and Briggs match up against Bush.

Looking at the individual matchups between the Bears D and the Saints offense, I think the Bears match up extremely well. Brees is a great quarterback, but a lot of his weapons don't match up well. The key for the Saints will be protection from their offensive line. If he gets enough time to make a play, he could very well pick apart the defense when they get into their cover 2, which is probably about 35-40% of the time.

[Drake Tungsten]

Bears and Patriots in the Super Bowl

[Dis]

Colts and Saints in the superbowl.

[Jonny]

Agreed.

NO
Indy

[Darsnan]

NO
Indy


If NO does make it I wonder if the NFL will make them the home team - sorta make up for that "home game" they got to open the '05 season....

D