Originally posted by Provost Harrison
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This situation may in fact be even more dangerous for the rest of the free world than it is for the US as a state. China and a down but totally undefeated Russia both have strong reasons to consider striking in various ways to end the cohesion of the rest of the free world while the opportunity to do so remains. China almost certainly could so entirely absent any military means at all purely by wealth, economic footprint and divide and conquer. Russia simply by calling NATO's bluff as the non-US NATO starts acting to punish and exclude the US as a potential threat. Russia has drastically weakened itself in Ukraine but it also has maintained much higher mobilization. Russia's nuclear bluff was called because China made clear it would not stand for it and because MAD still applied to the US and Russia. Will Britain's nuclear deterrent on US SLBMs be considered credible? Will the French nuclear deterrent be enough?
At this stage I think it's terribly dangerous to be planning on how to counter the US. Acting against the US in a generally hostile way will probably only increase the danger. Even relatively informal rebuffs could be counterproductive such as turning to China for almost anything at all supplied by the US but especially defense material. Instead, the focus should be on demonstrating unity of the rest of the free world to oppose the betrayal directly but leave room for some kind of reproachment. It has to be clear that the existing betrayals and any further betrayals will not pay off but also clear that the US is not generally viewed as a new enemy and that there's a path to be some kind of friend again. Even Germany and Japan only had to wait outside the alliance for a relative few years.
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