will putin go out with a bang or a whimper?

[Berzerker]

How do you know what eastern Ukraine wants at this point?

If Russia were holding back to avoid civilian deaths why permanently destroy civilian energy infrastructure in the winter? Other than not using WMD, is there anything whatsoever Russia has done to avoid civilian deaths?

Because I know what eastern Ukraine wanted after the 2014 coup, over 80% voted for greater autonomy or independence in 2015. How do you know what they want? I figure that number is even higher now. How many civilian deaths? The numbers offered by google say around 8,000 civilian deaths so far. Thats about twice the death toll during the first 2 years of the Donbas war in 2014-15. How many dead Ukrainian soldiers? 100k, 200k, 300k?

[Geronimo]

Win what? Russia's mistake was assuming/hoping negotiations would end the war. That was the rationale for sending a force to Kiev, to convince Ukraine to deal. When it became obvious that wouldn't happen they withdrew and focused on the east. The west wanted to restrain Ukraine to avoid escalation with attacks into Russia. Putin wont be attacking Nato, all that nonsense about Hitler and taking Europe was western propaganda. The neocons would love an attack on a Nato country, but short of that driving a wedge between Russia and Europe is a temporary win for the USA. China wants land routes thru Asia to Europe because the USA/Nato controls sea trade routes. We dont want Europe buying Asian resources, that weakens US hegemony.

Listen to yourself. If Russia assumed/hoped negotiations would end a war...it wouldn't have started a war, much less launched a 3 sided vast invasion that included a decapitation strike against Kiev using elite paratroops and other valuable assets on one-way deployments. It also would have responded to Kiev's constant early pleas for negotiation. What would you have thought of someone in 2003 who claimed that Bush didn't want regime change in Iraq but just wanted to force Saddam to the negotiating table?

I'll give you credit for making bold predictions though. I'm not ready to do that. Let's see if Russia launches a vast unstoppable offensive as Spring arrives. It could also be that the reason we didn't see T55s or T54s mustered out of mothballs before now however wasn't because Putin wanted to avoid extra deaths but was instead because Russian commanders know any tank that can be destroyed by modern cheap RPGs, let alone fancy Javelins, will just be a waste of a crew that can't escape from the exploded steel tomb and are only mustering them now because the leadership is desperate enough to force them to.

[Geronimo]

Because I know what eastern Ukraine wanted after the 2014 coup, over 80% voted for greater autonomy or independence in 2015. How do you know what they want? I figure that number is even higher now. How many civilian deaths? The numbers offered by google say around 8,000 civilian deaths so far. Thats about twice the death toll during the first 2 years of the Donbas war in 2014-15. How many dead Ukrainian soldiers? 100k, 200k, 300k?

I could easily envision 80% of Quebecers voting for greater autonomy or independence. If later, the United states invaded Canada and shelled the Canadians there, I daresay it would be unsubstantiated, to say the least, to assume that 80% would still favor independence or even greater autonomy at that point, let alone union with the US.

I could similarly imagine 80% of Scots could have voted for greater autonomy or independence. Likewise, if another country were to invade them it would be a bit absurd to assume the earlier poll responses still had meaning.

How do I know what Eastern Ukrainians want? I really don't care what they want. I know Donbas independence, like the independence of Kosovo, has no legal basis. We can assume they all want peace, but they might not want Putin's occupation at all at this point. In fact they may have found Putin's occupation to be quite an astonishing wake up call indeed.

[Berzerker]

Listen to yourself. If Russia assumed/hoped negotiations would end a war...it wouldn't have started a war, much less launched a 3 sided vast invasion that included a decapitation strike against Kiev using elite paratroops and other valuable assets on one-way deployments. It also would have responded to Kiev's constant early pleas for negotiation. What would you have thought of someone in 2003 who claimed that Bush didn't want regime change in Iraq but just wanted to force Saddam to the negotiating table?

I'll give you credit for making bold predictions though. I'm not ready to do that. Let's see if Russia launches a vast unstoppable offensive as Spring arrives. It could also be that the reason we didn't see T55s or T54s mustered out of mothballs before now however wasn't because Putin wanted to avoid extra deaths but was instead because Russian commanders know any tank that can be destroyed by modern cheap RPGs, let alone fancy Javelins, will just be a waste of a crew that can't escape from the exploded steel tomb and are only mustering them now because the leadership is desperate enough to force them to.

The war started back in 2014, this expansion of that war was meant to make sure Ukraine comes to the table. If a deal is made at this point and the west can find Ukrainians willing to die in the future and continue arming them Russia will invade again and probably take half the country if not more. My predictions are based on experts like Douglas McGregor, Russia had a mass mobilization over the winter preparing for the offensive once the ground will support armor.

Another analogy? Bush wanted regime change in Iraq (how is that in doubt), Putin knows Zelensky isn't the problem. The west backing of the right wing is blocking peace negotiations, Kirby just told China to stay out of it. Kiev's constant pleas for negotiation? Where did you get that? Boris went to Kiev shortly after the invasion began and told Zelensky to drop it. You can guess what would have happened to Zelensky if he ignored the west, he'd be killed as a traitor and blamed on a Russian missile.

[Berzerker]

I could easily envision 80% of Quebecers voting for greater autonomy or independence. If later, the United states invaded Canada and shelled the Canadians there, I daresay it would be unsubstantiated, to say the least, to assume that 80% would still favor independence or even greater autonomy at that point, let alone union with the US.

I could similarly imagine 80% of Scots could have voted for greater autonomy or independence. Likewise, if another country were to invade them it would be a bit absurd to assume the earlier poll responses still had meaning.

How do I know what Eastern Ukrainians want? I really don't care what they want. I know Donbas independence, like the independence of Kosovo, has no legal basis. We can assume they all want peace, but they might not want Putin's occupation at all at this point. In fact they may have found Putin's occupation to be quite an astonishing wake up call indeed.

More analogies... You really dont care what they want, obviously. I do care, they were attacked by Azov for rejecting a bloody coup backed by the west to oust the man they overwhelmingly elected. So why did you insist on arguing they didn't want autonomy or independence? You cared then, but now you dont care when faced with conflicting evidence.Then you posted information showing leaders in the Donbas asking for Moscow's help a half year after they got attacked by Azov. According to you the separatists were Russian little green men.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

As long as Russia has China's economic support then I don't see Putin going anywhere until health/old age forces him out. We like to talk alot about how Russia's army is getting its butt kicked, but they still occupy 20% of Ukraine and have a huge military/industrial complex to indefinitely feed the machine.

perhaps... but without the manpower to run it... what good is it? lets not even get into proper training - which russia completely lacks.

[Geronimo]

The war started back in 2014, this expansion of that war was meant to make sure Ukraine comes to the table. If a deal is made at this point and the west can find Ukrainians willing to die in the future and continue arming them Russia will invade again and probably take half the country if not more. My predictions are based on experts like Douglas McGregor, Russia had a mass mobilization over the winter preparing for the offensive once the ground will support armor.

Douglas McGregor eh? RT has liked what he has to say but I don't know much else about his take on this. I'll try to learn more.

Berz, I've got to say though that you're crazy if you think the West could ever muster anything like the Ukrainian mobilizations and professionalism success they've shown this last year. It's glaringly obvious that the mobilization in Ukraine is indigenously motivated and Western support is ancillary at best.

Another analogy? Bush wanted regime change in Iraq (how is that in doubt), Putin knows Zelensky isn't the problem. The west backing of the right wing is blocking peace negotiations, Kirby just told China to stay out of it. Kiev's constant pleas for negotiation? Where did you get that? Boris went to Kiev shortly after the invasion began and told Zelensky to drop it. You can guess what would have happened to Zelensky if he ignored the west, he'd be killed as a traitor and blamed on a Russian missile.

I give you so many analogies because I think your assessment of Russia's innocence in the Ukraine war makes no sense at any level and analogies change the context, hopefully revealing a bit of cognitive dissonance for you.

Berz, if the West can stop Zelensky with it's Azov why wouldn't Putin be able to stop Zelensky with his Separatists?

You talk about what Boris or nuland said and did as proving who is in control but...the dogs bark and caravan moves on. There is no evidence of control by those correlations Berz.

[Geronimo]

More analogies... You really dont care what they want, obviously. I do care, they were attacked by Azov for rejecting a bloody coup backed by the west to oust the man they overwhelmingly elected. So why did you insist on arguing they didn't want autonomy or independence? You cared then, but now you dont care when faced with conflicting evidence.Then you posted information showing leaders in the Donbas asking for Moscow's help a half year after they got attacked by Azov. According to you the separatists were Russian little green men.

I don't care what the Ukrainian East wants because it can't possibly exonerate any guilty party in this war. For the record there is no conflicting evidence for me to be faced with. No polls, apart from military managed farces, indicate that the eastern Ukrainians support Russia's special operation Berz.

They also overwhelmingly voted for a Zelensky who did not allow for any possibility of donbas independence as a candidate. It seems you only care about respecting the popular mandate of duly elected Ukrainian presidents that get Moscow's endorsement. How curious.

[SlowwHand]

A bang AND a whimper would work.

[PLATO]

Best response in this thread award

[Berzerker]

Douglas McGregor eh? RT has liked what he has to say but I don't know much else about his take on this. I'll try to learn more.

Berz, I've got to say though that you're crazy if you think the West could ever muster anything like the Ukrainian mobilizations and professionalism success they've shown this last year. It's glaringly obvious that the mobilization in Ukraine is indigenously motivated and Western support is ancillary at best.

So you're gonna Joe McCarthy him. Where would Ukraine be without western arms and funding? Yes I know Azov is not motivated by what the USA wants, they're motivated by a right wing nationalistic desire to culturally cleanse society of people they dont like and we helped.

I give you so many analogies because I think your assessment of Russia's innocence in the Ukraine war makes no sense at any level and analogies change the context, hopefully revealing a bit of cognitive dissonance for you.

Berz, if the West can stop Zelensky with it's Azov why wouldn't Putin be able to stop Zelensky with his Separatists?

You talk about what Boris or nuland said and did as proving who is in control but...the dogs bark and caravan moves on. There is no evidence of control by those correlations Berz.

Yeah, analogies change the context... Exactly, apples and oranges. Zelensky doesn't need to be stopped, he tried to end the war when he got elected and Azov told him to gtfo. Did we back him up? No, our senators from both parties were running over there promising more weapons and more war, to hell with 'democracy'. You just posted requests from the Donbas asking Moscow for help months after they were attacked by Azov. They weren't attacking Kiev, Russia was limited in their response. They intervened militarily twice during the Donbas war when the separatists were getting beaten and asked for help. If you were in charge of Russia what would you do as your people were pissed off by Azov attacking their kin across the border?

[PLATO]

It is completely ludicrous and totally irresponsible to see anything other than blatant aggression coupled with serious war crimes that have caused the deaths of tens of thousands of people as ANYTHING other than Russia's responsibility at this point.

TENS of THOUSANDS dead and probably HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS DEAD. This would not be the case if the Russian military had not invaded. This was not caused by anything other than a megalomaniacs desire of Empire. He has basically said as much himself.

[Berzerker]

And Saddam had WMD. Why didn't Putin invade when Trump was Prez? Why did it take Joe Biden's election to trigger this war?

[Dinner]

Eastern Ukraine doesn't want to be ruled by Kiev, they want autonomy, independence or joining Russia at this point. The reason why the war has taken this long is because Putin has been holding back to avoid civilian deaths. Ukraine is finished, they dont have the soldiers to replace their losses. Soon as the ground hardens the armor and artillery will roll in en masse. Just end the war and negotiate new borders, we're probably beyond Minsk now but the longer this goes on more people will die and Russia will take more territory. If you think Putin cant escalate short of nukes just wait 2-3 months.

I doubt that is true. Even eastern Ukraine voted for independence from the USSR and no public opinion polls are possible in occupied areas. Also only a fool would believe Putler has been holding back to avoid civilian deaths because all he does is target civilians because that is all his pathetic military is capable of doing. They aim at unmovable apartment blocks because everything else they will miss.

[Berzerker]

How many civilian deaths? I'm seeing 8,000 for the estimate. The battle for Mariupol was against Azov who took up defensive positions in apartment towers. There were opinion polls and referendum held after the 2014 coup, over 80% wanted greater autonomy or independence. The Donbas couldn't vote in presidential elections after the war started but they could express opinions and they supported Minsk. Are you arguing eastern Ukrainians support Kiev?

[PLATO]

How many civilian deaths? I'm seeing 8,000 for the estimate.

8,000 is NOT an ESTIMATE. It is the "Confirmed" number. Here is the actual quote from OHCHR:

"According to latest UN human rights office (OHCHR) data, at least 8,000 non-combatants have been confirmed killed – with nearly 13,300 injured - since the Russian invasion on 24 February last year. The true number is likely to be substantially higher, OHCHR staff have repeated on many occasions."

Notice they say the TRUE number is likely SUBSTANTIALLY higher and they have said that many times. How do you keep missing the truth in the details? The Russian leadership are pigs. They have no regard for human life and have demonstrated that hugely in this war...they don't even give a crap about their own troops.

How could anyone in their right mind think they give a crap about the people of Donbas? They round them up regularly and send them in human wave attacks with little to no training. Far from "protecting" these people, Putin is slaughtering them for nothing more than his megalomaniacal land grab. Berz...you are so missing what is really happening and falling for a KGB spymaster's set up to do nothing more than try and gain power and influence. He doesn't care who he kills...he only wants power.

[Berzerker]

8k is the estimate we have, not 'likely to be substantially higher'. The point being the low number of civilian deaths is proof Putin has not been targeting civilians and many who were killed were used as human shields if not outright cannon fodder for propaganda purposes. Ukraine soldiers move into a populated area to launch an attack and civilians are killed in the counter attack. So Russia spent years helping the people of the Donbas repel Azov but they dont care about them. How about the Russians along the border with Ukraine? They certainly have kin across the border who were attacked by Azov, no?

[BeBMan]

So Russia spent years in a low-intensity war against Ukraine in the Donbas

FTFY.