Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

Because the people will actively fight against it. Which makes it untenable to take it unless you are willing to pretty much kill every single one of them.

We'll see if they really do first.

[Berzerker]

I’m not so sure that Crimea can be returned to Ukraine. It would appear that close to half the people living there want to be part of Russia.

They voted on independence over 2 decades ago when the USSR fell apart, over 90% wanted independence from Ukraine. About the same as the Donbas.

[pchang]

That hasn't ever stopped Russia from taking land where more than half of the people there didn't want to live in Russia and for which there was zero legal basis for Russia to do so. So why should that stop Ukraine when it has the legal basis at least?

Because the people will actively fight against it. Which makes it untenable to take it unless you are willing to pretty much kill every single one of them.

[Dinner]

So since Polytubbies seemed to have missed it, pro-Russian demonstrations have been taking place in Moldova (that bit between Ukraine and Romania). Moldova used to have Black Sea ports, and after being rejected by Romania and Ukraine as 'partners' (Moldava is a basket case), seems to see this as a chance to ingratiate itself by opening some sort of western front, and maybe capturing a port or two.

Of course, Romania would probably be pulled in if a conflict occures.And this would give Putin the excuse he needs..

The "protests" were in the Russian created break away mini-region of Transneistria. Russia originally targeted Moldova last year for annexation, we saw plans Lukashenko stupidly showed on state t.v. accidentally in Belarus near the beginning of the invasion. This caused Moldova to elect a pro-western government which Putin absolutely hates. He has since organized these protests and we have video of protesters admitting on tape at the protests that they are not from Moldova but are from Russia. Putin paid them to go to Moldova to protest supposed "crimes" against ethnic Russians.

This is exactly what Putin did in 2013 before his 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

[Geronimo]

I’m not so sure that Crimea can be returned to Ukraine. It would appear that close to half the people living there want to be part of Russia.

That hasn't ever stopped Russia from taking land where more than half of the people there didn't want to live in Russia and for which there was zero legal basis for Russia to do so. So why should that stop Ukraine when it has the legal basis at least?

[pchang]

I’m not so sure that Crimea can be returned to Ukraine. It would appear that close to half the people living there want to be part of Russia.

[PLATO]

the real and only end result of russias complete failure with ukriane is that china will never try the same with tiawan.

Hard to say that I think given the literally billions that China has spent and continues to spend to get ready for that. Still, I think they know the West is on to them and from what I can tell we are making some pretty strong moves to get ready ourselves. Maybe after Xi is gone (assuming they haven't attacked by the time he eventually is out of power) maybe someone a little less ambitious on that issue will arise. Hard to tell at this point....

[My Wife Hates CIV]

the real and only end result of russias complete failure with ukriane is that china will never try the same with tiawan.

[PLATO]

So since Polytubbies seemed to have missed it, pro-Russian demonstrations have been taking place in Moldova (that bit between Ukraine and Romania). Moldova used to have Black Sea ports, and after being rejected by Romania and Ukraine as 'partners' (Moldava is a basket case), seems to see this as a chance to ingratiate itself by opening some sort of western front, and maybe capturing a port or two.

Of course, Romania would probably be pulled in if a conflict occures.And this would give Putin the excuse he needs..

Transnistria has been "hot" before and is a pro-Russian separatist region. 1500 Russian troops are deployed there as "peacekeepers". Most of Moldova is pro Europe. Unless the Russian troops engage, I think it is unlikely that the separatist have the means to try and seize ports. They would certainly be engaged by the regular Moldovan armed forces if they chose to attack anywhere. Likely this will remain a frozen conflict unless Russia is able to link up with its forces in Transnistria by seizing the Black Sea Coast...an event that is looking more and more unlikely.

[Uncle Sparky]

So since Polytubbies seemed to have missed it, pro-Russian demonstrations have been taking place in Moldova (that bit between Ukraine and Romania). Moldova used to have Black Sea ports, and after being rejected by Romania and Ukraine as 'partners' (Moldava is a basket case), seems to see this as a chance to ingratiate itself by opening some sort of western front, and maybe capturing a port or two.

Of course, Romania would probably be pulled in if a conflict occures.And this would give Putin the excuse he needs..

[Dinner]

No concessions can be given to Putin for his war of aggression and conquest. Also, Putin must be defeated soundly or else he will proceed on to Moldova, Poland, and the Baltic states. THAT conflict will be nuclear. No question about it. The reason is the Russians feel they have to do this for their very survival but they also now know their regular military is no match for NATO so, of course, Putin will go nuclear. It is his only option.

If we want to avoid that then our ONLY option is to make sure the Russian army dies in Ukraine so that Putin cannot move on to the next steps in his plan. Period.

[Geronimo]

Ukraine gave its enormous thermonuclear arsenal and triad of delivery systems to its neighbor Russia, a country which had territorial claims on Ukraine, in exchange for Russia dropping those claims forever. When Ukraine then found itself invaded, occupied and partially annexed by Russia less than 10 years later by the same Russian leader who would invade and occupy and annex Ukrainian territory again less than 10 years after that...I think all talk of peace agreements between Russia and any other country became literally meaningless.

Peace with Russia is wonderful but Putin has destroyed any basis for codifying peace with Russia in any civilized way. The only way forward is to decisively defeat them on their chosen battlefield.

[PLATO]

Well said Jrabbit.

[PLATO]

Interesting that the general feeling here seems to be that some type of concession must be made to Putin to end the war. I think that this is self defeating. Aggression should have NO reward unless it is impossible to prevent. If Ukraine can restore its boarders and hold them against Russian counter attacks, then it is time for them to ascend to NATO membership. A peace treaty is not needed immediately...only an armistice. Once those three things happen, then years can be spent, if need be, on political pressure for a peace treaty. If Putin uses nuclear weapons, it will lead to the ultimate destruction of the Russian Federation.

The West must hold strong...it must give Ukraine what it needs to eject the Russians, and it must be there as a treaty ally once the guns fall silent. Anything less and aggression is rewarded. That would be the path to a larger war in the future.

[-Jrabbit]

Thank you both for your replies. Geronimo, your dogged pursuit of this conversation with Berz is admirable and appreciated. No way would I have the patience for it. FWIW, it's my position that nearly all political discourse these days suffers greatly from overgeneralization (like this "neocon" catch-all), as if there are precious few possible points of view, any and all of which require their opponents to be monolithic for their arguments to hold any water.