Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

Yes, of course....a BBC interview of one guy should definitely make us overlook the constitutional action of the elected Ukrainian Parliament.


Yes, of course...the armed troops in the street and the threats to quell the protest should be totally ignored. It is okay to repress your democratic population with the military!



The 2 actions that provoked the war are Democracy and Megalomania. Ukraine's Democracy and Putin's Megalomania.

The constitutionality of the removal of Viktor from office is disputable. They chose not to impeach him (required 75% vote to convict), instead unanimously voting (with only about 73% of parliament present to cast a vote) to enact a special binding resolution to remove him from office citing a loophole in the constitution where there was no formal process to otherwise remove a president who "abandoned" his duties. That's a constitutional crisis rather than a coup or a constitutional action, imho. That's also part of the reason I usually stress the fairness of subsequent elections such as that for Zelensky rather than the parliamentary removal of Viktor to defend the legitimacy of the current Kyiv regime.

As to deployment of armed troops by Viktor. He only used law enforcement throughout Euromaidan rather than "troops". The law enforcement were deployed against protestor camps which were not only associated with huge peaceful protests but also the large riots and forced public building occupations by protestors/rioters that accompanied them. I think it is clear that Viktor's actions were at least as restrained as the subsequent actions against Separatists in the Donbas by his successors.

The war was provoked by deep divisions in Ukraine, by the arming of the opposing sides by Russia and various Western governments, especially through crowdfunding sites that the succeeding Ukrainian government setup to raise new militias with "to restore order' and was especially provoked by Russia deploying the regular Russian military into to Ukraine along with large covert Russian operations that typically became overt actions later on. There's mountains of corroborating evidence of all of that Russian intervention. The only evidence of armed US or even "Western" armed intervention is an interview with this guy which some people say proves the US paid snipers to kill a hundred street level people on both sides of the conflict during Euromaidan.

Ukrainians started the rioting, the US and Russia fanned those flames, and Russia started the civil war and the war while the US settled into sometimes sending money to Ukraine to help and sometimes talking about doing so and then stopping because of the bad optics associated with early Azov which was banned by act of US congress from receiving any US aid whatsoever for nearly all of 2015 to 2022.

If the US had sat on its hands and done nothing whatsoever, there surely would still have been a huge Euromaidan protest/riots and an enormous political division/constitutional crisis. The $5 billion the US sent to 'support' democracy prior to the rioting would have been nowhere near enough to remove Viktor from office and in any case the vast majority of the US money was already accounted for in transactions utterly useless for removing a president (or even for spreading unrest) that took place several years before Viktor was elected. Viktor himself would have had access to block or audit anything left over for the US to work with after that.

[PLATO]

The BBC interviewed one of the snipers, that was a coup.

Yes, of course....a BBC interview of one guy should definitely make us overlook the constitutional action of the elected Ukrainian Parliament.

They murdered over 100 people and blamed it on the president to drive him from office.

Yes, of course...the armed troops in the street and the threats to quell the protest should be totally ignored. It is okay to repress your democratic population with the military!

The guy in the video didn't mention that or how Azov attacked protesters in the east before the Russian army intervened. He just blithely skips right on by the 2 actions that provoked this war.

The 2 actions that provoked the war are Democracy and Megalomania. Ukraine's Democracy and Putin's Megalomania.

[Egbert]

I would like to see a status quo ante bellum peace and Zelensky gone.

[Berzerker]

The BBC interviewed one of the snipers, that was a coup. They murdered over 100 people and blamed it on the president to drive him from office. The guy in the video didn't mention that or how Azov attacked protesters in the east before the Russian army intervened. He just blithely skips right on by the 2 actions that provoked this war.

[Dinner]

Are you still lying about mythical "coup" which followed the constitutional process to the letter?

[Berzerker]

He did a video on what provoked the war and didn't mention the 2014 coup to overthrow the democratically elected president popular in the east or the right wing violence against protesters and ethnic Russians. Dont you think that omission is conspicuous? We backed a massacre and unleashed fanatics on Ukraine to bleed Russia with a proxy war on their border. I wonder what that guy would say if Russia did that to our neighbor.

He also argues Zelensky is a sufficient rebuttal to Azov's influence. It was Azov that led the attack on the east in 2014, Zelensky told people he'd end the war so they elected him in 2019 but he had no effect on policy. Obviously. Do you believe Joe Biden wanted this war?

And then he dismisses talk of Nazis by pointing out Russia knows about them too so that makes it propaganda. So did western media after that coup you didn't mention. I'm sure if Latvia hosts Nato missiles aimed at Moscow Russia will feel threatened, look at what we did in Cuba.

[Dinner]

For Berz,

https://youtu.be/Rh4QU7hxKVg

[Geronimo]

Speaking of distractions, apparently there was an incursion into Russian territory in the vicinity of Belgorad, by something called "The Freedom of Russia Legion". "Territory was captured".

Apparently they had at least one tank

[The Mad Monk]

Speaking of distractions, apparently there was an incursion into Russian territory in the vicinity of Belgorad, by something called "The Freedom of Russia Legion". "Territory was captured".

[The Mad Monk]

Prigozhin(sp) announced that Wagner had taken Bahkmut, and in the same video, stated that they will stay there until the 25th and then pull out entirely, leaving the defense to the Russian MOD.

So, if anything, it's the Russian army that's getting encircled.

[Dinner]

Wagner may have put themselves into an encirclement.

I am skeptical Ukraine can pull that off given the geography. I think Bakhmut is more of a distraction and they really need to be making a breakthrough in the south.

[BeBMan]

Wagner may have put themselves into an encirclement.

Taking out Wagner would be a step towards denazification.

[pchang]

Wagner may have put themselves into an encirclement.

[Geronimo]

Oh, a part landed. Anyway, you seem to miss some weights here - what is 600 kg compared to a damaged missile ?

About the same. Kinzhal weiths over 500 kg, iirc.
And missile is damaged not by the whole body of SAM, but by it's shards after the explosion nearby the target.

You don't know a ****!, that is simple!
You are an idiot, farting to the pond.

Period.

I think Serb is either simply trolling and doesn't care if the trolling will be deeply unflattering for his intellect or else he is not reading and comprehending our posts explaining this to him and just ​regurgitates the most superficially related propaganda that he has been shown on his media shows which have an "opposing" western Simplicio stooge put in their place by the totally untainted by dishonest propaganda Russian state endorsed expert's irrefutable logic and knowledge.

Trying to reason with him on this issue may indeed be about as effective and worthwhile as farting in a pond.

Synopsis: hypersonic speeds create an an enormous amount of drag at all altitudes below ~90km. Enormous drag can be managed by carefully engineering surfaces to minimize the drag and to control and manage the enormous stresses that such drag can place on an airframe. If the surfaces are damaged, enormous local stresses caused by the now poorly managed drag forces at the point(s) of damage cause near immediate structural failures at the point of damage spreading the damage until the airframe breaks to pieces. The pieces, which have a massively increased overall surface area, expend massive kinetic energy in hypervelocity atmospheric interactions and slow to subsonic speeds in seconds and to terminal velocity several seconds after that. If the hypersonic object was more than several seconds freefall from the ground at the start of the damage the pieces will impact the ground at each piece's individual terminal velocity.

If the above amounts to farting in a pond, that is Serb's fault.

[Geronimo]

Serb, you are soo funny - the Chelyabinsk meteor​ in total weighted 10.000 tons and you are showing a video of rescuing 600 kilo ? Les just make it a bit funnier - these 10 kton traveled at a speed of 69 kkm - more or less 7 times the speed of your "indestructable" rockets.

Thank you BackCat for your exemplary efforts to explain the basic problems with Serb's continued assertions that a Kinzhal has to create a crater larger than 1.5 meters if it is intercepted at any point on its trajectory.