Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

I too started to think that this may be a way for the West to weaken Russia; but what would the long (and short) term result be of a weakened Russia? The answer is starting to happen. Stronger Sino-Russian relations. Since the West (for the most part) stopped buying all those Russian resources, China could buy them cheap. We're driving huge amounts of cheap resources to our greatest competitor.

Once Russia decided it wanted territory more than good relations with the West any trade with Russia just became a vulnerability for Russia to exploit anyway.

[pchang]

When I told Serb that Russia would soon be China's lapdog I was trolling. But, I was also serious and it appears, quite accurate.

[Geronimo]

I don't think PRC and Russia will ever trust each other the way Ukraine's allies do however. That has implications for the nuclear game theory conclusions. When either Russia or PRC envision an apocalyptic exchange scenario I wouldn't be at all surprised if they both make assumptions that their planning assumptions might require destroying the other to avoid a post exchange existential threat from the other.

[Berzerker]

The fact that Euromaiden was an illegal coup became irrelevant to the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government following future fair elections. It never became entirely irrelevant as a lesson and as an injustice. If trump used a Nazi army to overthrow Biden in a coup I would totally reject the legitimacy of the government but after the next fair elections I would accept the government of the legitimate winner of the fair elections. So yes, after new elections I would tell the people opposing the new legitimately elected US government to just accept it.

How did they have fair elections when the Nazis were murdering people and shelling eastern Ukrainians? In my hypothetical the state(s) rejecting Trump's coup dont get to vote in any 'fair election', they're under assault by Trump's army. Do you really believe the CIA and Ukrainian right wing allowed fair elections after murdering a bunch of people to overthrow the elected leader? The people of the Donbas dont share your opinion, they consistently voted for independence for decades before the man they elected was forced out. My God Jimmy Dore is right, the USA is the world's biggest terrorist.

[Geronimo]

How did they have fair elections when the Nazis were murdering people and shelling eastern Ukrainians? In my hypothetical the state(s) rejecting Trump's coup dont get to vote in any 'fair election', they're under assault by Trump's army. Do you really believe the CIA and Ukrainian right wing allowed fair elections after murdering a bunch of people to overthrow the elected leader? The people of the Donbas dont share your opinion, they consistently voted for independence for decades before the man they elected was forced out. My God Jimmy Dore is right, the USA is the world's biggest terrorist.

What are your sources? If you don't trust the Central Election Commission (Ukraine) why do you trust your sources and their claims about election results?

[Egbert]

The worse problem with nukes is their actual use. You are thinking that the key to avoiding that is to recognize and submit to the strongest demands and presumed desires of those who have nukes, especially lots of nukes, so that they are no longer angry or threatened enough to use them. Policies arising from that attitude will surely make nuclear war far more likely, possibly even inevitable. If any country can ever be shown to obtain geopolitical advantage, including dodging geopolitical disadvantage, owing to their nukes, then as a matter of course every other country will understand that possessing nukes will confers advantage.

Being angry, or facing unacceptable losses doesn't make using nukes more desirable or even more palatable. Being better off after using them or because of threatening to use them makes using them more likely or threatening to use them more likely.
.
Putin knows that Putin will probably be dead personally if he uses nukes. If he is insane, all bets are off. It won't pay to try plan for all possible psychotic behavior since it is irrational and there's no reason to believe caving will lead to better behavior rather than expanded psychotic behavior.

If West restrains Ukraine in hopes of staving off nuclear war, everyone will realize that is why they did it and there will be an enormous nuclear arms race and someone in the near future, probably Putin himself, will see how much more they can get with an even more "credible" nuclear threat. There's no way humanity lasts long after that.

I am thinking, not of appeasement, but what happens when a nuclear power is facing humiliation. Losing the Crimea would be a humiliation for Putin and a decisive defeat for Russia.

My thinking is "how would Putin react if Ukraine captured Crimea and demanded it in a peace treaty". Could Putin stay in power if he accepted this? Would Russia feel so humiliated that they would actually use a nuclear weapon?

At what point would nuclear weapons be used?

[Berzerker]

Russia's not going to lose anything other than blood and treasure, the real offensive is coming and Ukraine will collapse. They fought bravely but its over, they cant fill the ranks of the dead with children and old people try as they may.

[Berzerker]

What are your sources? If you don't trust the Central Election Commission (Ukraine) why do you trust your sources and their claims about election results?

Would that be a commission appointed by the coup govt we backed? My source is simple: the Ukrainian right wing attacked people objecting to their coup. There was no fair election. Millions of voters who supported the man they ousted were fleeing for their lives or silenced and cowered into submission. If you're so impressed by their fair elections, why did Zelensky campaign on ending the war only to be pushed aside and threatened? Democracy or Nazis and the CIA?

[Berzerker]

Evil people who commit a massacre at a protest are not interested in fair elections

[BeBMan]

When I told Serb that Russia would soon be China's lapdog I was trolling. But, I was also serious and it appears, quite accurate.

Yeah, basically Putin ceded influence over former Soviet countries in Asia to China and made Russia dependent on China economically and technologically.

[Berzerker]

moved......

[BeBMan]

I too started to think that this may be a way for the West to weaken Russia; but what would the long (and short) term result be of a weakened Russia? The answer is starting to happen. Stronger Sino-Russian relations. Since the West (for the most part) stopped buying all those Russian resources, China could buy them cheap. We're driving huge amounts of cheap resources to our greatest competitor.

CNN sez that US gas prices are below pre-war levels now

(Of course they were higher for some time last year, which the piece is discussing).

As for Europe, things are somewhat different, but after a year it's safe to say that so far Putin's "Energy War" is a failure - one of several of his miscalculations.

However, I do agree that Western reaction brings China/Russia closer, and it has an impact resource-wise and in other fields. But to continue to buy Russia's resources as before would basically reward the aggressor, and still fund his war-machine, so I don't think there's much of an alternative.

In general I would not even have a problem to buy Russian resources again (in much lower quantities though) if the situation changes. After all, basically everyone on Earth does business with all kinds of other countries, and we/whoever do not have the luxury to choose their governments.

But IMO that would certainly require peace and significant easing of the tensions we have now.

[pchang]

Please keep in mind that China and India are buying Russian natural resources at significant discounts.

[Geronimo]

I am thinking, not of appeasement, but what happens when a nuclear power is facing humiliation. Losing the Crimea would be a humiliation for Putin and a decisive defeat for Russia.

My thinking is "how would Putin react if Ukraine captured Crimea and demanded it in a peace treaty". Could Putin stay in power if he accepted this? Would Russia feel so humiliated that they would actually use a nuclear weapon?

At what point would nuclear weapons be used?

It's simple if Putin is a rational actor at no point will nuclear weapons be used. If Putin is *not* a rational actor, then all bets are off and we cannot hope to predict his behavior. Probably the safest description of Putin is that he is a rational actor who wants us to doubt that he is a rational actor so we will cave in to his nuclear threats.

[Geronimo]

I do think Ukraine should be pressured hard behind the scenes to offer Putin face saving concessions that do zero to weaken Ukraine strategically. One of the easiest to offer (preferably with a great show of how offensive and normally unacceptable it is to offer it) would be "De-nazification".

Ukraine could enact a treaty that would protect the freedom to use Russian. The treaty would systematically rename all public places and monuments. Every instance of "Bandera" could be officially replaced with "Zelensky" or "Rurik" or "Yoda" or whatever. The treaty could replace every swastika in any public image with Rurik's trident, a smiley face, a banana or whatever. The treaty could require every public official to swear they are not a nazi.

In exchange for all that irrelevant pile of nonsense Russia would withdraw all troops and China and new Zealand or something could place some observers in the liberated areas of Ukraine.

Bottom line, Putin must only be given empty vacuous concessions that he can promote as victory to try to keep his job instead of acting like a cornered rat.