Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

Like Kherson and Kharkiv (that we have never a full control of) are the only places where the war takes place!
The width of frontline is over thousands of kilometers, but any local success of Ukrainian forces is portrayed by your media as a decisive victory. Why should I re-evaluate my beliefs, if the grand picture suits them well? It is Ukraine who had lost its territory, population, MIC and economy, despite mobilizing all she could, not Russia.

Do you believe Ukraine has taken and continues to take 10 to 1 losses vs Russia across the board and that Russia enjoys massive material and logistics advantage on every major front? Your previous posts seem to establish that you used to believe that.

Did I say we have a firepower advantage at every inch of the front?
We have committed a tactical withdrawal at Kherson, because it was necessary considering the local terrain and the disposition of forces on that exact piece of the front. Period.

Local terrain?? Russia surrendered a bridgehead and its largest captured population center which happens to be the capital of one of the four oblasts it has annexed and now leaves the center of that oblast across a large river. Local terrain actually demands the superior force remain. If Russia is overwhelmingly superior overall why in the hell did they allow a situation where they had to make that kind of sacrifice? Why wouldn't they move the requisite forces into the area? Failing to do so would be rank stupidity and incompetency...if the option to do so existed. They bailed out of Kherson and the entire western river bank because they no longer enjoy overwhelming superiority due to heavy overall Russian losses. They did it because Ukraine left them no viable way to keep it. They did it because Russia inflicting 10-1 overall casualties on Ukraine has been a fantasy and a lie. They did it because Russian Air Supremacy over Ukraine has been a fantasy and a lie. They did it because Russian overwhelming material advantage has become history and a present fantasy and a lie.

If you didn't notice, the civilian population have been evaquated from the right bank as we wll the the military forces. That was a well organized withdrawal with nearly casualties for the reasons I have mentioned above.

Not really relevant and does nothing to shore up your incessant claims that Russia has drastically outperformed Ukraine in this war and enjoys massive material advantage, total Air Supremacy, has inflicted 10 to one overall losses against Ukraine and that Russia will control and retain all officially annexed territory.

WHAT LARGE RUSSIAN RETREAT?

What large Russian retreat?? Retreating from 40% of everything Russia has gained since the start of a Russian special military operation. This occurs even when Russia is officially claiming it has set out to gain far more than that including several major population centers outside the Donbas of which it currently controls zero.

In the north, less than a year ago, Russia had an enormous retreat from the strategically vital Kiev area all the way back across the Belarus border . Much more recently a second Large retreat in the north towards Kharkiv all the way toward Luhansk oblast. Even more recently, In the south near Kherson, Russia had another enormous retreat. Three retreats, Tails conspicuously tucked between their legs each time.

Two local Ukranian sucsesses is all you got, but that was a long time ago. Today we have regrouped and meatgreanding your puppet at Bakhmut.

We are advancing now, not you!

Bakhmut?? Seriously?? Russia was gunning for Bakhmut all autumn and all winter to date. In that time Ukraine has liberated two vast regions comparable in size to the entire
Donestk oblast within which Bakhmut is just a single town.

Russia may get its **** together and even win the war. But to-date its performance has been shockingly incompetent. If Russia wins now it will be because of foreign assistance to Ukraine drying up or because Russia calls up an enormous mobilization and swarms Ukraine with a million or more fresh conscripts and every bit of kit it can scrape together.

[Geronimo]

Your wet dreams are true for Ukranian conscripts, but not for Russian professionals.

if your wet dreams were true Serb, the special military operation would be over and Russia would already have achieved its objectives.

Russia can't simultaneously be overwhelmingly more militarily powerful and more militarily competent and professional than Ukraine and somehow arrive at the operational history of the special military operation that we can look back on today.

[pchang]

Cognitive dissonance is now a survival trait in Russia.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

Someone should look through Serb's posts in February whinging about how long the Second Oil Crusade took to attack, and quote the lot that we may laugh and laugh and laugh at him.

[Dinner]

Still far to few, just 39 and all old variants from the late 1980'w to early 1990's, but a major step on the right direction. The US is sending surplus M109 Paladin self propelled howitzers to Ukraine. The importance of this is as former Soviet shells and parts get more and more difficult to provide as production in Eastern Europe can't keep up this diversifies to systems and calibres NATO does have a lot of shells and spare parts for. It also helps to transition Ukraine to NATO standard equipment.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...src=twsrc%5Etf

[Serb]

Keep sending our targets.

[Serb]

Someone should look through Serb's posts in February whinging about how long the Second Oil Crusade took to attack, and quote the lot that we may laugh and laugh and laugh at him.

You have renamed my Fedruary thread, not me.
I've started it one week before the "so-called Russian invasion"

[Serb]

if your wet dreams were true Serb, the special military operation would be over and Russia would already have achieved its objectives.

Russia can't simultaneously be overwhelmingly more militarily powerful and more militarily competent and professional than Ukraine and somehow arrive at the operational history of the special military operation that we can look back on today.

Yes we had a dizziness from success.

This time you have supplied and trained your Nazi dog quite well.
We didn't expect that.
But we will win anyway.

[Serb]

Do you believe Ukraine has taken and continues to take 10 to 1 losses vs Russia across the board and that Russia enjoys massive material and logistics advantage on every major front? Your previous posts seem to establish that you used to believe that.



Local terrain?? Russia surrendered a bridgehead and its largest captured population center which happens to be the capital of one of the four oblasts it has annexed and now leaves the center of that oblast across a large river. Local terrain actually demands the superior force remain. If Russia is overwhelmingly superior overall why in the hell did they allow a situation where they had to make that kind of sacrifice? Why wouldn't they move the requisite forces into the area? Failing to do so would be rank stupidity and incompetency...if the option to do so existed. They bailed out of Kherson and the entire western river bank because they no longer enjoy overwhelming superiority due to heavy overall Russian losses. They did it because Ukraine left them no viable way to keep it. They did it because Russia inflicting 10-1 overall casualties on Ukraine has been a fantasy and a lie. They did it because Russian Air Supremacy over Ukraine has been a fantasy and a lie. They did it because Russian overwhelming material advantage has become history and a present fantasy and a lie.


Not really relevant and does nothing to shore up your incessant claims that Russia has drastically outperformed Ukraine in this war and enjoys massive material advantage, total Air Supremacy, has inflicted 10 to one overall losses against Ukraine and that Russia will control and retain all officially annexed territory.



What large Russian retreat?? Retreating from 40% of everything Russia has gained since the start of a Russian special military operation. This occurs even when Russia is officially claiming it has set out to gain far more than that including several major population centers outside the Donbas of which it currently controls zero.

In the north, less than a year ago, Russia had an enormous retreat from the strategically vital Kiev area all the way back across the Belarus border . Much more recently a second Large retreat in the north towards Kharkiv all the way toward Luhansk oblast. Even more recently, In the south near Kherson, Russia had another enormous retreat. Three retreats, Tails conspicuously tucked between their legs each time.


Bakhmut?? Seriously?? Russia was gunning for Bakhmut all autumn and all winter to date. In that time Ukraine has liberated two vast regions comparable in size to the entire
Donestk oblast within which Bakhmut is just a single town.

Russia may get its **** together and even win the war. But to-date its performance has been shockingly incompetent. If Russia wins now it will be because of foreign assistance to Ukraine drying up or because Russia calls up an enormous mobilization and swarms Ukraine with a million or more fresh conscripts and every bit of kit it can scrape together.

I have a neice, who in this case says - "WHAT?"

We will win this war, no matter your pumping-up of your puppet. Period.

[Serb]

And you better pray we win this war softly, because otherwise you will perish in a nuclear fire of WW4.

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust!

[Geronimo]

And you better pray we win this war softly, because otherwise you will perish in a nuclear fire of WW4.

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust!

...and this nuclear fire plan serves Russia's interests how exactly? How is a post nuclear war world - even if Russia somehow avoids a single nuclear strike anywhere in Russia going to be more livable and manageable for Russia than a world where Ukraine is a genocidal nazi puppet state exterminating ethnic Russians at a terrifying rate of 14k per 10 years (assuming every single death in Donbas has been Ukrainians genociding ethnic Russians of course) and certain states think they are special and go on self appointed world police military actions that don't involve Russia every 5 to 10 years or so?

If Russians really believe any kind of nuclear war is preferable to even otherwise worse case geopolitical bull**** (that lets Russia keep all of its post soviet territory) they are unbelievably stupid.

How will Russia ever be better off for using nukes regardless of what other powers do?

[BlackCat]

And you better pray we win this war softly, because otherwise you will perish in a nuclear fire of WW4.

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust!

Aw, already at ww4 - what happend to WW3 ? Anyway, Putin may be dumb, but he isn't stupid - he knows the concept of MAD and will not fire any nuclear missiles ever. Only RTV fanatics says this.

[BlackCat]

Oh, just some fun - it's true that RTV can't send over here, but that doesn't mean it 's banned - anyone with net access can see the stupidity of the channel

[BeBMan]

[QUOTE=BlackCat;n9449596]

Aw, already at ww4 - what happend to WW3 ?/QUOTE]

Looks like we missed it

[Dinner]

And you better pray we win this war softly, because otherwise you will perish in a nuclear fire of WW4.

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust!

Russia would itself be incinerated. The hard reality is the west knows that the Russian Army is currently incompetent; you guys had a 40 miles long convoy that stopped because it ran out of gas then three days later everyone abandoned their vehicles and walked back to Belarus because they had run out of food. So Russia stands no chance in a conventional war against NATO but Putin is demanding control over half of NATO. He did that in his speech when he launched his failed invasion.

That means in a direct fight Russia would have to go nuclear because it's conventional forces suck so badly. That is why we have to avoid a direct conflict between NATO and Russia but Putin wants to move further west after Ukraine. Thus the best course of action is to make sure the Russian army dies in Ukraine so it can never move on to try to invade NATO.

Russian no longer can win in Ukraine because every Ukrainian now knows what genocidal fascists the Russian regime is. Even if they conquer territory it will be just like Afghanistan and eventually the occupiers will be forced out. That is the unavoidable reality here.

[Geronimo]

Russian no longer can win in Ukraine because every Ukrainian now knows what genocidal fascists the Russian regime is. Even if they conquer territory it will be just like Afghanistan and eventually the occupiers will be forced out. That is the unavoidable reality here.

The problem dinner, is that NATO wasn't actually ever forced out of Afghanistan. Afghanistan was abandoned as politically irrelevant and due to absurd wishful thinking about the capabilities of the anti-taliban Afghani government.

If Russia achieves an occupation of Ukraine comparable to NATO's occupation of Afghanistan, far from ever being forced out, I am sure Putin and every autocrat who succeeds him will be happy to pay a never-ending cost of occupation comparable to what the NATO occupation was eventually costing.

Any Russian occupation of Ukraine will need to be far more difficult than Afghanistan was to ever end.