Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

1994 - Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward? The nukes weren't operable, Russia had the keys.
Maidan was not narrowly popular and was more unpopular in E Ukraine. The coup and Crimea were in 2014. Separatists protested the coup and took control of govt buildings in the Donbas.

"A national survey held in March-April 2014 found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine.^[52]"

Nope, all the eye witnesses say that never happened. It is funny that the known liar Putin doesn't even invent that lie until around 2002. Yet no one who was actually present says any such words were ever mentioned nor was it ever listed in the exhaustive paperwork documenting everything. It is just a lie invented by the liar Putin and it is sad you buy into his lies.

From the beginning NATO has always said any country which meets the membership criteria and who willingly wants to join can. So the lies Putin is telling would directly contradict the NATO charter and its entire history.

[PLATO]

Also, even Gorbachev says it didn't happen.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

[pchang]

But, but.......

Berz KNOWS it is TRUE!!!!

[Berzerker]

"Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward?"

Was a question, not a statement of fact

[Dinner]

Also, even Gorbachev says it didn't happen.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

That is what I am saying. EVERYONE who was there said it was a lie made up by Putin a decade after the fact. It is just nonsense propaganda out of Putin made up to try to justify his wars of conquest.

[Berzerker]

"In 1990, few gave the possibility of a broader NATO enlargement to the east any serious thought."

Because the deal wouldn't even allow expansion into E Germany

“The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” To be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

[PLATO]

So...basically you agree then that no promise of no NATO expansion was made.

[Berzerker]

Even if I grant you all of these quoted points, how in the hell does that get you to Ukraine being a nazi state controlled by a washington neocon cabal that forced a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine to occur?

My take, with or without your points here is that Ukraine is a deeply divided society. Russia pushed, pulled and manipulated Ukraine to stay closer to and more dependent on Russia while the US and the EU pushed and pulled Ukraine towards the EU and NATO. When a president pissed off one side of the divide it led to huge protests which Russia and the West tried to take advantage of to push and pull their interests. When the dust settled the Ukrainian government swung west, Russia made a grab for Crimea and instigated and assisted the Donbas rebellion as a strategic buffer/insurance for its new conquest. When it was clear that Ukraine was never going to relinquish its claim to Crimea Putin began to look for a convenient time to grab the rest and neutralize NATO credibility. Putin noted France, Germany and other NATO heavy weights were quite happy to expand business with Russia. Putin noted that NATO had given almost no military support to Ukraine and the Budapest memoradum Ukrainian security guarantee obligations of the US and of the UK were essentially ignored. Putin recognized the global post covid chaos, signals of support of Russia from the PRC and the post Afganistan Western meltdown as a unique opportunity to enact the masterplan. Everyone who reported to Putin had learned over the years that the best way to advance and stay out of trouble was to feed Putin information he wanted to believe so everybody who had his ear told him that conditions for an operation against Ukraine were extremely favorable. Putin moved his enormous force into place. Putin couldn't hide something that big and NATO panicked and negotiated to avoid it. NATO was terrified that conceding to Putin control of internal NATO decisions like membership accession mechanisms would fatally undermine NATO viability. Putin calculated that a successful Ukrainian operation would break NATO confidence and dissolve NATO future viability anyway so he felt no pressure to settle. He was confident Western divisions were profound and leadership was totally absent. He attacked.

What if NATO had not expanded? He would have attacked earlier.

How in the hell do you figure Washington Neocons made all of this happen?

How did Russia take advantage of protests? The power comes from the US and Ukrainian right wing, both wanted war. Zelensky beat Poroshenko in a landslide because Ukrainians wanted to end the war. Russia did not instigate Donbas, the people living there rejected the coup. Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine so your source's mindreading contradicts reality but claiming Nato negotiated a peace deal is absurd, when there was an early attempt after the war started Boris flew over to nix the deal.

How did neocons make this happen? They toppled the Ukrainian govt and armed Azov to attack Ukrainians who didn't bend the knee leading to a proxy war on Russia's border.

[PLATO]

How did Russia take advantage of protests? The power comes from the US and Ukrainian right wing, both wanted war. Zelensky beat Poroshenko in a landslide because Ukrainians wanted to end the war. Russia did not instigate Donbas, the people living there rejected the coup. Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine so your source's mindreading contradicts reality but claiming Nato negotiated a peace deal is absurd, when there was an early attempt after the war started Boris flew over to nix the deal.

How did neocons make this happen? They toppled the Ukrainian govt and armed Azov to attack Ukrainians who didn't bend the knee leading to a proxy war on Russia's border.

And Comedy Central has a new act!

That was very funny! Thanks for the laugh Berz!

[Berzerker]

yer shooting blanks

[PLATO]

No, my friend, there is no target to shoot at...only hot air.

[N35t0r]

How did Russia take advantage of protests? The power comes from the US and Ukrainian right wing, both wanted war. Zelensky beat Poroshenko in a landslide because Ukrainians wanted to end the war. Russia did not instigate Donbas, the people living there rejected the coup. Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine so your source's mindreading contradicts reality but claiming Nato negotiated a peace deal is absurd, when there was an early attempt after the war started Boris flew over to nix the deal.

How did neocons make this happen? They toppled the Ukrainian govt and armed Azov to attack Ukrainians who didn't bend the knee leading to a proxy war on Russia's border.

Dude, Poroshenko lost because he was turning into a right-wing loony and there was another, more respectable, pro-west candidate.

Even if Ukrainians wanted a swift end to the war, this didn't mean ceding the territory to Russia. Also watching what Russia has been doing in Belarus (where the FSB is actively helping Lukashenko's regime's repression) and Georgia makes it clear that once Russia gets in, they do not go out.

I also find it funny that you accuse Ukraine of starving Crimea. Once Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, it stops being Ukraine's responsibility to do so.

[Berzerker]

Dude, Poroshenko lost because he was turning into a right-wing loony and there was another, more respectable, pro-west candidate.

Even if Ukrainians wanted a swift end to the war, this didn't mean ceding the territory to Russia. Also watching what Russia has been doing in Belarus (where the FSB is actively helping Lukashenko's regime's repression) and Georgia makes it clear that once Russia gets in, they do not go out.

I also find it funny that you accuse Ukraine of starving Crimea. Once Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, it stops being Ukraine's responsibility to do so.

Lost to a candidate who ran on ending the war and Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine. And it was the Ukrainian right wing who wanted the west's help. Yes, if you shut off food and water to a region you're starving it. Gorbachev said Georgia caused the war.

[N35t0r]

Lost to a candidate who ran on ending the war and Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine.

And it was the Ukrainian right wing who wanted the west's help. Yes, if you shut off food and water to a region you're starving it. Gorbachev said Georgia caused the war.

The separatists were free to lay down their arms but also didn't

Heads of state are also generally required by law to preserve the territorial integrity of their countries, so I'm not sure why 'keeping the Donbas in Ukraine' is somehow bad.

A lot of Ukraine wanted the west's help, not only the far right.

The Russians were fine providing food and water to Crimea, there wasnt any famine or anything like that (unlike, say, in Ukraine when it was ruled by Moscow). Ukraine was not obliged to keep supplying cheap water to a country that invaded and annexed part of it's territory, that's dumb. Should the Czechs have also been responsible to feed all the people in the Sudetenland after the Munich conference?

[Berzerker]

Keeping the Donbas in Ukraine was the rebuttal to the claim Putin wanted to take it and Ukraine's motive for starving Crimea is irrelevant, thats what they did.

[N35t0r]

Gorbachev said Georgia caused the war.

And Putin says Ukraine caused the war, so it's good we're straight on this as well.

We can thus also put the blame of causing WW2 squarely on the Allies.

[Berzerker]

Gorby was cited as a valid source, now he isn't...

[N35t0r]

This is reductionist argumentative crap that kids grow out of in middle school.

[BeBMan]

Putin had no other choice, because Russia is encircled by countries not run by him.

[Geronimo]

"In 1990, few gave the possibility of a broader NATO enlargement to the east any serious thought."

Because the deal wouldn't even allow expansion into E Germany

“The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” To be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

Why does it matter? Countries are free to exit NATO via article 13.

Russia has sought defense treaties with all of its neighbors. Does this force any NATO member to attack/special-military-operate against any other country? Could it even possibly? Why must NATO keep non-treaty promises to anyone at all which exclude anyone else from NATO membership?

Why do you have less problem with Russia attempting to invade its neighbors to discourage NATO expansion than you do with NATO trying to respect its neighbors to discourage Russian invasions?

[Berzerker]

It matters because Russians believed Nato would not expand eastward. I have a bigger problem with my govt, they act in my name and with my $$$.

[Dinner]

There was never any promise to not expand NATO. We have gone over this. That is just a lie invented by Putin.

Putler is just mad because he can't attack countries he wants to attack. Boo hoo.

[Berzerker]

the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990