Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

Republicans have also been happy to fight wars.

The war in Ukraine however, whether in the Donbss or in any place touched by the special military operation was not started by Democrats or Republicans at all berz. Not even if you call the Maidan change in power a coup. All of the fighting was started by Russia everywhere in Ukraine. All of it.

That said, we both see the pattern everywhere is clearly demonstrated as the people who want to start the wars never want to fight the wars. Kudos for recognizing that.

[PLATO]

So Andriivka, about 8 miles south of Bakhmut seems to be liberated. The village is literally tiny but looks to increase the chances of encirclement of Russian troops in Bakhmut. The activity around Bakhmut seemed to be a fixing operation but has begun to take on a more strategic significance as Ukrainian troops continue to make progress. Here is an aerial of Andriivka:

[Dauphin]

Nice to know the hiking trail is still open.

[BeBMan]

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has confirmed that Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov is in critical condition due to serious illness, SBU Spokesperson Andriy Yusov told the Ukrainian news outlet Obozrevatel on Sept. 15.

"Yes, indeed, there is information that war criminal Kadyrov is in serious condition — his existing diseases have worsened and caused such a serious condition," Yusov said.

Obozrevatel had earlier reported claims from sources in Chechnya that Kadyrov had fallen into a coma. While Yusov did not provide details on Kadyrov's medical issues, he confirmed that the problem was not an injury and that his health was worsening.

"He has been ill for a long time, and it is about systemic health problems. But he has been in serious condition for the last few days," Yusov said.

Yusov said that the information about Kadyrov's health has been confirmed by multiple medical and political sources.

Would need confirmation still from independent sources other than Ukraine, me thinks.

https://news.yahoo.com/military-intelligence-chechen-warlord-kadyrov-215737896.html

[pchang]

Who knew syphilis would still be so debilitating. Must be that Russian health care he’s been getting.

[Berzerker]

Republicans have also been happy to fight wars.

The war in Ukraine however, whether in the Donbss or in any place touched by the special military operation was not started by Democrats or Republicans at all berz. Not even if you call the Maidan change in power a coup. All of the fighting was started by Russia everywhere in Ukraine. All of it.

That said, we both see the pattern everywhere is clearly demonstrated as the people who want to start the wars never want to fight the wars. Kudos for recognizing that.

We wake up one day to a talking head on TV yapping about people half way around the world disagreeing about their govt and our immediate reaction is to identify the Nazis and send them weapons

[Berzerker]

Nato secy gen Jens Stoltenberg has admitted Russia invaded to prevent Nato expansion... all it took to prevent the war was Nato staying out of Ukraine

[Geronimo]

We wake up one day to a talking head on TV yapping about people half way around the world disagreeing about their govt and our immediate reaction is to identify the Nazis and send them weapons

Bullcrap. Not one red cent was sent for weapons until Russia moved it's military into Ukrainian bases on Crimea and armed separatists started occupying public buildings in the Donbas with ample evidence of Russian weapons and "volunteers" in active service in the Russian military rushing across the border.

[BeBMan]

Looks like there is a new vid of Kadyrov, dunno if it confirms he's alive and well. We'll find out one way or the other. Would be a pity if we'd lose such a great humanitarian

In other news Belarus' pres Lukashenko Berz-admitted he wants to have a ménage à trois with Kim and Putin. It's true because there is a vid, too!

[N35t0r]

Nato secy gen Jens Stoltenberg has admitted Russia invaded to prevent Nato expansion... all it took to prevent the war was Nato staying out of Ukraine

The only downside to Russia for Ukraine being in NATO is that Russia wouldn't be able to invade Ukraine and avoid being declared war upon by the rest of NATO. So we might have prevented this war, only to have Putin invade next year.

[Donegeal]

Nato secy gen Jens Stoltenberg has admitted Russia invaded to prevent Nato expansion... all it took to prevent the war was Nato staying out of Ukraine

What right does Russia have to decide what groups or organizations an internationally recognized and independent country can join?

Make-em a better deal, not blow'em to bits then try to annex their land.

[PLATO]

But that is not the Russian way. Russia is a brute and only understands the politics of force and coercion. Peaceful co-existence can only be forced upon them by organizations like NATO.

[Berzerker]

Bullcrap. Not one red cent was sent for weapons until Russia moved it's military into Ukrainian bases on Crimea and armed separatists started occupying public buildings in the Donbas with ample evidence of Russian weapons and "volunteers" in active service in the Russian military rushing across the border.

In December 2017, Max Abrahms of the Council on Foreign Relations and John Glaser of the Cato Institute observed in the Los Angeles Times that "[ISIL] imploded right after external support for the 'moderate' rebels dried up,"

Imagine that, ISIL collapsed when Trump stopped arming Obama's moderate rebels. We were running guns in and out of Ukraine before Russia reacted to the coup. I can tell what the people in these regions wanted just by looking at the direction they pointed their guns. They were shooting at the Nazi army Washington and Kiev sent to attack them, the Russian army didn't defend them until later in 2014 and that led to the Minsk Accords.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore

There were millions of people in the Donbas who rejected the coup and we armed Nazis to kill them. Marcia Marcia Marcia doesn't even enter the picture.

[Ming]

And still no blame for Putin, even though he is the one that invaded, killing and raping all those people you claim he was defending.

[Geronimo]

In December 2017, Max Abrahms of the Council on Foreign Relations and John Glaser of the Cato Institute observed in the Los Angeles Times that "[ISIL] imploded right after external support for the 'moderate' rebels dried up,"

Imagine that, ISIL collapsed when Trump stopped arming Obama's moderate rebels. We were running guns in and out of Ukraine before Russia reacted to the coup. I can tell what the people in these regions wanted just by looking at the direction they pointed their guns. They were shooting at the Nazi army Washington and Kiev sent to attack them, the Russian army didn't defend them until later in 2014 and that led to the Minsk Accords.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore

There were millions of people in the Donbas who rejected the coup and we armed Nazis to kill them. Marcia Marcia Marcia doesn't even enter the picture.

why would anyone continue to arm the enemies of ISIL with more weapons after the destruction of ISIL was written on the wall? It makes zero sense that ISIL would be unable to exist in the absence of a continued supply of US arms.

[Berzerker]

The destruction of ISIS was always meant to be, they were our proxy force. Their purpose was to destroy Syria enough for the Assad regime to throw in the towel. Trump shut off the arms and they imploded. Can you rephrase those questions?

[Geronimo]

"Yanukovych fled the country on February 22, 2014 after losing the support of his own party and security forces."

I think he fled the evening of the 21st the day after he was framed for the massacre. That was the coup. You keep arguing it wasn't a coup because parliament - in the immediate aftermath of a massacre by the Ukrainian right wing to frame the leader - removed him because he fled the country. Nazis are slaughtering people, we'll call it democracy. Bing AI now? Who programs that? Might as well just stick with wikipedia.

Don't be too hard on Bing for following his evil neocon masters. I also had the following revealing conversation with Bing that suggests among the programmers might be a kindred spirit or two for you Berz!

Russia's stated objective in the special military operation was first to demilitarize Ukraine and secondarily to "denazify" Ukraine. at the rate established since the beginning of the special military operation in February 2022 how much longer will the operation need to continue to complete demilitarization of Ukraine?

Bing's Response

According to the information from the web search results, Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and has since advanced rapidly into Ukrainian territory. As of April 6, 2022, Russian forces have captured the cities of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Mariupol, and Odessa, and are closing in on Kyiv. ¹²³

The exact number of Russian troops involved in the operation is unknown, but estimates range from 100,000 to 200,000. ⁴⁵ Ukraine's military is much smaller and weaker, with about 150,000 troops and outdated equipment. ⁶⁷⁸ Ukraine has also received some military assistance from NATO and other countries, such as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, drones, and radars. ⁷⁹

To estimate how much longer the operation will need to continue to complete demilitarization of Ukraine, we need to make some assumptions and simplifications. We will assume that:

- Demilitarization means that Ukraine's armed forces are completely destroyed or surrendered, and that no significant resistance remains.
- The rate of advance of Russian forces is constant and proportional to the ratio of their strength to Ukraine's strength.
- The strength of each side is measured by the number of troops and the quality of their equipment.
- The terrain, weather, logistics, morale, and other factors do not affect the outcome.

Using these assumptions, we can use a simple mathematical model to calculate the time needed for Russia to demilitarize Ukraine. We will use the following formula:

$$T = \frac{L}{R}$$

where:

- $T$ is the time in days
- $L$ is the length of the front line in kilometers
- $R$ is the rate of advance of Russian forces in kilometers per day

To find $L$, we can use a map of Ukraine and measure the approximate distance between the current positions of Russian forces and the borders of Ukraine. We will ignore the Crimean Peninsula, which is already under Russian control. We will also ignore the western regions of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi, which are far from the main front line and have not been attacked by Russia yet. Using a ruler tool on Google Maps[^10^], we get:

$$L \approx 1{,}200 \text{ km}$$

To find $R$, we need to estimate the strength ratio between Russia and Ukraine. We will use a simple index that multiplies the number of troops by a factor that reflects the quality of their equipment. We will assign a factor of 1 to Ukraine and a factor of 2 to Russia, based on the difference in their defense spending and modernization efforts. Using the estimates from the web search results⁴⁵⁶, we get:

$$S_R = N_R \times F_R = (100{,}000 + 200{,}000) / 2 \times 2 = 300{,}000$$
$$S_U = N_U \times F_U = 150{,}000 \times 1 = 150{,}000$$

where:

- $S_R$ is the strength index of Russia
- $S_U$ is the strength index of Ukraine
- $N_R$ is the number of Russian troops
- $N_U$ is the number of Ukrainian troops
- $F_R$ is the equipment factor of Russia
- $F_U$ is the equipment factor of Ukraine

The rate of advance of Russian forces is proportional to the ratio of their strength index to Ukraine's strength index. We will also assume that Russia can advance at a maximum speed of 100 km per day, based on historical examples of blitzkrieg tactics. Therefore,

$$R = \min \left( \frac{S_R}{S_U}, 100 \right) = \min \left( \frac{300{,}000}{150{,}000}, 100 \right) = 100 \text{ km/day}$$

Finally, we can plug in the values of $L$ and $R$ into the formula for $T$:

$$T = \frac{L}{R} = \frac{1{,}200}{100} = 12 \text{ days}$$

Therefore, based on this model, Russia would need about **12 days** to complete demilitarization of Ukraine at the current rate of advance.

However, this is a very rough estimate that ignores many factors that could affect the outcome of the war. For example,

- The strength ratio between Russia and Ukraine could change over time due to casualties, reinforcements, defections, or desertions.
- The rate of advance of Russian forces could vary depending on the terrain, weather, logistics, morale, or resistance they encounter.
- The length of the front line could change due to encirclements, breakthroughs, or counterattacks by either side.
- The definition of demilitarization could change depending on the political and diplomatic situation, the international response, or the public opinion in both countries.

Therefore, the actual time needed for Russia to demilitarize Ukraine could be much shorter or longer than 12 days, depending on how the war unfolds.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 9/18/2023
(1) Russia had ‘no choice’ but to launch ‘special military operation’ in .... https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127881.
(2) On conducting a special military operation - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_con...tary_operation.
(3) Russian forces launch full-scale invasion of Ukraine. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ne-as-un-meets.
(4) Putin Announces Special Military Operation in Eastern Ukraine. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...HMKssPMTur01Vh.
(5) Western officials think Putin may formally declare war on Ukraine on .... https://www.businessinsider.com/puti...ficials-2022-5.
(6) How Russia and Ukraine's militaries compare | CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europ...ntl/index.html.
(7) Infographic: Military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ne-interactive.
(8) Armed Forces of Ukraine - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine.
(9) How Long Could Ukraine Hold Out Against A New Russian Invasion?. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukrai.../31614428.html.
(10) 2023 Ukraine Military Strength - Global Firepower. https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...id=ukraine.

of course I don't think Bing was being facetious. No, must've been prescient! We'' see, in 10 days. Yep.

[BeBMan]

So Andriivka, about 8 miles south of Bakhmut seems to be liberated.

They liked it so much that they promptly took another one:

Ukraine 'breaks through Russian defense line' near Bakhmut – commander


Ukrainian troops have broken through a Russian defensive line south of Bakhmut, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Monday.

"Fierce fighting continues in the area of Bakhmut," he said. "As a result of the successful actions of our troops, the enemy's defense line which runs [south] from Bakhmut to Gorlivka was broken."

After Ukrainian forces retook the small villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka over the weekend, the localized breakthrough represents a third small success south of Bakhmut ahead of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's United Nations address in New York this week.

General Syrskyi claimed that the Russian army's 72nd, 31st and 83rd brigades had been "destroyed and have completely lost their capacity to fight." He cautioned however that "the general situation on the eastern front remains complicated."

Speaking to DW, French political expert and former NATO director of policy planning Fabrice Pothier commented on the retaking of Andriivka and Klishchiivka, suggesting that they may be more important symbolically than tactically.

"Being on higher ground, this could give the Ukrainian forces the upper hand in putting pressure on the Russians in Bakhmut to the point where they will possibly have to withdraw from the city," he said.

"Clearly, the Ukrainians have chosen Bakhmut as a place to pin down Russian forces, and a potential retaking of Bakhmut could have a huge psychological effect, even on the Russian leadership, who themselves have made Bakhmut into the 'mother of all battles,' he continued.

"So, the symbolic value should not be understated. As for the tactical value, I'd prefer to leave that to the Ukrainians. That will be up for debate come the end of the war."

Overall these are small gain still. But maybe we still see some good Russian running, like last year.

https://p.dw.com/p/4WUAE