Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[N35t0r]

Finish president and PM recommend the country enters NATO, and Russia replies that it is an aggressive move that destabilizes the region.

lol

Kudos to whoever managed to say that with a straight face.

[Elok]

It destabilizes Putin, who is a significant feature of eastern Europe.

[dannubis]

Maybe the Russian soldiers should shoot some more unarmed civilians in the back to show they mean business…

[Uncle Sparky]

It makes it easier to loot if you shoot witnesses.

[The Mad Monk]

There are soooo many witnesses...

[Serb]

Only if you are driving on Siberian roads. We have asphalt here.

Do you want me to shoot a video for you how I drive 200kmph on a road to my job on a Siberian asphalt?

[Serb]

When I'll do, do you promise to stfu once and forever?

[BeBMan]

Surprisingly, with all the time he's had to reboot his "special operation" messaging, Putin's Victory Day address was a complete nothingburger.

There was an interesting article in the Guardian detailing that Putin has probs to get more troops into Ukraine, as his brilliant move to label it a "special military operation" instead of declaring it a war means that soldiers can refuse to be deployed there.

They may face dismissal (aka can get fired) but unless it's officially a war they cannot be court-martialled or jailed etc.:

‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine

Troops are saying no to officers, knowing that punishment is light while Russia is not technically at war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[Proteus_MST]

It would actually be great if the USA would send some Patriot launchers and ammunition as well as, especially in the eastern parts of Ukraine, the ukrainian vulnerability against high altitude bombers seems to be a factor

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[N35t0r]

It would actually be great if the USA would send some Patriot launchers and ammunition as well as, especially in the eastern parts of Ukraine, the ukrainian vulnerability against high altitude bombers seems to be a factor

Patriots are very training and logistics heavy, is not as easy as just sending a launcher and some missiles. You need several batteries, with centralized fire control.

[BeBMan]

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV


Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan. But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".

Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted: "The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.

"The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation.

"The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited."

The other guests in the studio were silent. Even the host, Olga Skabeyeva, normally fierce and vocal in her defence of the Kremlin, appeared oddly subdued.

In many ways, it's a case of "I told you so" from Mr Khodarenok. Writing in Russia's Independent Military Review back in February, before Moscow attacked Ukraine, the defence analyst had criticised "enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos" for claiming that Russia would easily win a war against Ukraine.

His conclusion back then: "An armed conflict with Ukraine is not in Russia's national interests."

Criticism in print is one thing. But on TV - to an audience of millions - that is another level completely. The Kremlin has gone out of its way to control the informational landscape here: shutting down independent Russian news sources and ensuring that television - the principal tool in Russia for shaping public opinion - is on message.

It is rare to hear such realistic analysis of events on Russian TV.

Rare. But not unique. In recent weeks, critical views have appeared on television here. In March, on another popular TV talk show, a Russian filmmaker told the presenter: "The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society."

So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?

Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?

It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222

[Donegeal]

By March 25th, Russia's official casualties were announced as 1,351. Anyone know if they've put out an updated "official" number?

[Geronimo]

BBC News - Mariupol's Azovstal fighters: What next for Ukraine's captured soldiers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61493182

Given that Ukraine was willing to arrange for the defenders to be imprisoned in Russia rather than leave them sick and starving/thirsting to death defending avostal it now seems obvious that predictions of successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the south were wrong and Ukraine judges such counterattacks as futile in the short term. They must also understand that vacating azovstal will allow Russia to dig in there making long term prospects futile as well.

I think Ukraine is becoming very pessimistic indeed in the south.

[N35t0r]

I hadn't heard of any plans to counterattack in the south. It's also pretty clear they can only afford to perform offensive operations on one place at a time, and understandably that place right now is Kharkiv.
Perhaps when all the new equipment and training on it is done this will change a bit, but there is also less incompetence on the Russian side (or, rather, the competent units are still fighting, the incompetent ones were Darwined out of the picture).

[Edit:]
Regarding your last point:

Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city