Should the US have cut oil supplies to Japan?

[Dinner]

As Giblet said the oil embargo was a result of Japan illegally seizing French Indochina.

[Lancer]

Every history I've seen has it because of Japan's war in China. Even prominent games have the US demanding Japan leave China.

[Lancer]

Idk if they wouldn't have still attacked. But if we could have avoided war it would have been good.

That's right, think of the US lives lost! The citizenry didn't want to get involved in endless European wars, Roosevelt and Churchill were overjoyed when Germany followed up the Japan attack on Pearl with a declaration of war on the US.

[Aeson]

Japan knew what they were doing, it was only a matter of time. If your scenario has them locked in a long term war, they end up with nukes. Late 40s or early 50s.

[Lancer]

That's an interesting wild ass guess. My wild ass guess is the 70s. The Germans were playing with hard water, the Japanese had a mathematician playing with #s, nobody was building The Manhattan Project in any of their cities.

[Aeson]

Whether that was in the late 40s to 70s, doesn't change much about how horrific the results would be in a multi-decadal war between major powers armed with chemical weapons.

And once it happened ... Imperial Japan with nukes is not a timeline to be in.

[Lancer]

'90 then. Anyway we're in this timeline and Xi and that guy in NK both have nukes. So, you pick who you want to nuke you.

[Aeson]

China and NK are demonstrably less expansionist than Imperial Japan was. Both have nukes and have so far refrained from using them. You're worried China might invade Taiwan.

Meanwhile Imperial Japan had invaded or attacked by 1945:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...Imperial_Japan

They had used banned chemical weapons hundreds of times. They would almost surely have used nukes, especially in your scenario of endless war with China. Their culture may not have fit into a stable MAD.

So yah, Im happy I can sit on my balcony and enjoy the beauty of the Philippines, as family laughs and plays. There's a 100% chance I am currently doing so in this timeline. The odds of doing that in a nuclear armed Imperial Japan are much lower.

[Lancer]

A lot of assumptions. Watch a piece on the Manhattan Project. Its a monster. Takes more shields than the Pyramids. Let that sink in. The notion that you couldn't be doing what you are doing if the US didn't embargo Japan is a huge reach. Consider, a lot of folks from the US went to fight Japan. A lot died, lost to their family, their kids. Or they never had kids who could have kids that could move to the Philippines and sit on their balcony and enjoy. Its better to avoid war when possible.

[Kidlicious]

The danger of China is that they corrupt your society, mostly the elites. If they invade Taiwan and we don't declare war on them they will be more powerful than us, because they will then have much more power over the entire East.

[Lancer]

Today? Yes, it would be a real mess. No nation of the Pacific would trust the US again. That means all the free world in these parts would be Finlandized. They would be at the beck and call of communist China. Including the Philippines...Taiwan isn't all that far from Luzon...

In the other timeline, no Japanese invasion of the Philippines, and all the hell unleashed. I've chatted with Filipinos, the older ones who are mostly gone now, speak of Japanese walking up to people and killing them with their swords. A lot of Filipinos died in defending their country from Japan, and during the occupation, Americans too. I think sometimes it would be a good way to go, fighting beside the Filipino for the Philippines. If China takes Taiwan maybe I'll raise a company of friends, teach them 1970s infantry tactics, get ready.

Aeson here thinks China under Xi is less expansionist, hope he's right. Have my doubts.

[Kidlicious]

It doesn't matter if they aren't as expansionist. They take you over, in effect. They have control over your country and your media tells you that you are free.

[Lancer]

Yeah, I kinda think China jumped the gun on that. The coronavirus and the election caused them to do it. I too see their hand in things. Industry, the tech giants, doesn't want to lose their factories in China so they back the media. Of course China has been in the colleges, but Portland etc wasn't all that impressive. Now they are being outed. Trump reelected or not, I think people are aware now at the grass roots. Think Trump will be elected, and they will be tossed out, or at least engaged.

[Kidlicious]

Yeah, we'll have to see. We'll definitely be a divided society for a long time. That's just reality so we shouldn't worry about lectures about divisiveness.

[Lancer]

See what happens, try to be optimistic.

[Kidlicious]

I think optimism got us into this mess. I'm a realist.