Should the US have cut oil supplies to Japan?

[Lancer]

Japan was doing the nasty in China, the US cut oil supplies to Japan leading Japan to attack the US. This led to defeat of Japan and their leaving China which led to the growth of the CCP, and the problems with them that we, and the world, have now. Had we not cut the oil Japan would have not attacked their #1 source of the stuff needed to sustain their war, and instead kept trying to defeat and overcome China, an almost impossible task for a nation 10 times their population. Both nations would have likely remained locked in contention, Japanese expansionism checked, and Chinese expansionism never to arise.

Discuss

[Ming]

You paint a pretty rosy picture of what "might" have happened.
"Both nations would have likely remained locked in contention, Japanese expansionism checked, and Chinese expansionism never to arise."
Japan would have eventually been defeated by China given time, and maybe China would have grown even faster with everybody afraid of them even earlier

[Aeson]

It would likely have lead to catastrophe. If we don't enter the war, at the very least a lot more people die and live under Fascism, Imperialism, and Communism for decades or possibly centuries. Opens the possibility that Germany, Japan, or USSR gets nukes first as we might not prioritize it as heavily. Makes it almost guaranteed that one of them gets and uses nukes before the war ends. Either way may end in world conquest or annihilation of civilization by genocidal maniacs with nukes.

[EPW]

Maybe the US can act faster in the European theater if they don't have to deal with Japan? Maybe take all of Germany before the Russians have time to get there and end the holocaust sooner.

[Aeson]

Even if we enter the war with Germany and don't enter against Japan, USSR ends up occupying Japan ... we don't use nukes against Japan. The horror of nukes isn't on display. Might increase the odds of US or USSR trying a first strike later and the resulting nuclear holocaust.

[EPW]

Japan still attacks Pearl Harbor because they were some crazy mofos.

[Lancer]

Japan diverted huge forces for the war against the Allies. Efforts in Burma, the Philippines, and many small islands diverted forces from their war effort in China. Even with this the Japanese embarked on Operation To-Go in '44 and captured huge swaths of Chinese territory. Had the diverted troops been there, and the air force units which went into places like the Marianas and never emerged, Japan would have likely won the war against China in '44. Of course such a victory would never really be total, and Japan would have been tied down holding the place. Regarding catastrophic loss of life, many lives were lost in Burma, the Philippines, and the Allied nations. Also, China under the CCP's words are now backed by NUCLEAR WEAPONS, and they are expansionist. Their forces are building opposite Taiwan... Btw, how many lives were lost for the years the Nationalists and CCP battled for the control of the mainland? ...and an invasion of Taiwan may only be waiting for a Biden administration. So, assuming paid off Biden stays out, and China launches its invasion, our allies, Japan, India, and Australia will likely come to Taiwan's aid, and quite possibly be defeated at sea. Without the US involved, China could conceivably use nukes. While this is speculative, China will eventually attempt to regain and subjugate Taiwan, as they have HK. It is their doctrine. How much of a catastrophe there?

No, I suggest the cost of US interfering with an oil embargo is far from paid.

[EPW]

Sigh. Why go there dude? You had a good thread going.

[Lancer]

The cost isn't past. Lets say Trump gets elected, and China launches before the new arms sales arrive? Now you have a potential nuclear war, and a terrible battle for Taiwan, with ships on both sides going to the bottom. Either way, eventually China will invade.All can be tied to the oil embargo.

[giblets]

Actually, the oil embargo started after Japan occupied French Indochina.

[Lancer]

Consider Princep? (sp) shooting the Arch Duke. That resulted in a century of warfare. WW1 leads to WW2. Well, the embargo and the defeat of Japan is the same. Everything flows from that decision.

[Lancer]

Actually, the oil embargo started after Japan occupied French Indochina.

Sure, but 'French' Indochina was colonial possession. Japan had as much right to it as France, none. France was occupied by Germany. Are you suggesting that the US embargoed Japan because of French Indochina?

[Lancer]

Another SCN. Biden gets elected and China invades Taiwan. Biden commits US forces to the fight, carriers etc to begin with. The allies together manage to hold part of Taiwan and then begin throwing back Chinese forces. China uses nukes... Had China and Japan been at it for "centuries" no nuke war. In fact, with US forces focusing on Germany exclusively, there might have been victory in '44. So, Manhattan Project is canceled, and no nukes at all. Long shot, but hey. Or, without Pearl, the Germans never declare on the US. No nukes again.

[EPW]

Maybe someone else should come up with the scenarios.

[Aeson]

Someone(s) (likely multiple) would have developed nukes by now. It's just not that hard. It's hard to imagine any other realistic scenario with it going as well as it did with just 2 used in war so far.

China would exist as a state by now. No way Japan could occupy it for 80 years. Likely never would have held it all. Japan would have done better vs China without the US, but eventually lost to USSR and China. Japan, SK, and Taiwan would have been part of USSR or China for most of the last 80 years. Much of the S Pacific too. Far worse outcome than maybe possibly Taiwan being invaded at some point in the future.

[Lancer]

Someone might have come up with nukes, there's no guarantee though. The US spent a ton of money and brain power to do it. Its easy now maybe...but then it was all theory. From the US it went to the Soviets because the Rosenburgs gave it to them, and from the Sovs to China. US helped the UK and France. Everything stemmed from the Manhattan project.

[Kidlicious]

Idk if they wouldn't have still attacked. But if we could have avoided war it would have been good.