Are you moving to Canada when Trump and/or Clinton is elected President?

[Giancarlo]

The way she is acting? And what way is that exactly? She has been pretty direct and gave specifics. And that is what people want to hear. They don't want to hear "I will makes everyone more safe". They want actual specifics. This is where Trump will fall apart entirely in the 11th hour.

Plus she already has a major coalition of voters backing her... And the framework left in place from Obama.

Seriously get a grip and read my posts. For once. You didn't even address anything about changing demographics. Latinos and women will send Trump to defeat.

Besides... Trump doesn't want to win. He wants to start his own entertainment network. More money in that. You are deluding yourself, elok.

[Giancarlo]

BTW, national polling is meaningless in the bigger picture. She leads in just about every swing state and makes some republican states competitive. Must be that appeal in the South she has. Georgia for example.

[Elok]

Follow the state-by-state tabs in that link I just posted. She's comfortably ahead in MI and VA. FL, NH, NC, PA, and OH much the same as national. In most cases introducing third-party candidates to the equation hurts her significantly. She is overall in the lead, but not by a very impressive margin. Speculating about how demographic groups will save you is very well and good, but the hard numbers say she's doing pretty meh at this point, against essentially the worst constitutionally eligible candidate imaginable.

I don't know how strictly one defines "eleventh hour," but it's less than four months till the GE and she's barely ahead of this d-bag. You really should be somewhat concerned.

[Giancarlo]

I am waiting for the convention and four months in a general election can feel like a long time. She is ahead comfortably in most swing states and again is coming up competitive in a couple of traditionally Republican States. I need to recheck this one, but I recently saw a poll in Texas where she was behind by just 4%.

And the third party candidate Johnson hurts Trump more than Hillary.

[Elok]

I have just said, based on a survey-aggregate site, that she is not comfortably ahead in swing states. Florida, for example, is a swing state. She leads by less than a percentage point in a two-way, and is slightly behind in a four-way. Pennsylvania: ahead 3.2 and 1.0, respectively. Ohio: 1.5/2.5 lead. New Hampshire: 2.6/tie (the latter based on a single poll). North Carolina: 2.0/2.7. In what universe is that "leading comfortably?" Even in Michigan and Virginia, her best of the swing states tracked, she is ahead by about five points.

Same site has Texas going for Trump by 8 and 2 in two rather old polls. Casual searching isn't turning up anything more recent and reliable.

[Giancarlo]

We will see what happens after the democratic convention and what type of bounce she will have. I think she will have one after she picks her VP running mate. Pence is total sh*t really. The word is Vilsack and he is one that would shore up any support in swing states.

I will stick to the statement she will win the electoral vote comfortably.

[Giancarlo]

I would have preferred Julian Castro over Vilsack... But either is fine with me.

[Elok]

I guess it depends how you define "comfortably," and it's some comfort that Trump has never at any point been actually ahead of her (except once, by less than one point, in May), but . . . ehhhhhhh. At times he's come rather too close for my tastes. The sheer amount of bounce in their ratings suggests that it will be largely a matter of chance come November. Whichever one has screwed up more recently, basically.

[Elok]

Also, did you notice that Europe is seeing terror attacks with increasing frequency lately? Somebody shot up Munich just today. Every one of those shootings is a Trump ad. This is a very good time for people who sell fear.

[ZEE]

Elok is a nerd.

[Lorizael]

Trump's is a series of posts about TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! He will make America great again, beyond great, so incredibly awesome that bald eagles will personally perch on all of our houses and paint them red white and blue with their craps of unbridled joy. Most importantly, there will be TRUUUUUUUMP!

Trump doesn't do so well with bald eagles.

[Giancarlo]

Also, did you notice that Europe is seeing terror attacks with increasing frequency lately? Somebody shot up Munich just today. Every one of those shootings is a Trump ad. This is a very good time for people who sell fear.

Don't think so. So far Trump has only managed to offend and insult more people. His reaction after the Orlando shooting was awful. People were pissed off by his idiotic reaction.

[Giancarlo]

Tim Kaine is a far better choice than Vilsack. But I still would have preferred Julian Castro. Kaine will get voters in swing States though. Solid choice.

[Elok]

Don't think so. So far Trump has only managed to offend and insult more people. His reaction after the Orlando shooting was awful. People were pissed off by his idiotic reaction.

And for how long did that depress his poll numbers? Looking at the day-by-day on RCP . . . he was already sliding substantially before that. Shortly after--less than a week--he started rising again, and is now two percentage points up from June 12 polls. You appear to be conflating your reactions, and those of people and groups you are attuned with, with those of the country as a whole.

The picture grows more chaotic when you factor in the Green/Libertarian spoilers. In general, Stein robs Clinton, while Johnson robs Trump. So you could say it's something of a two-factor election; victory depends on which has slipped up most recently, and also on which loses the most to his or her spoiler. By comparison, VP picks are a fart in the wind, as is an endorsement or non-endorsement from a sore loser bit of yesterday's news like Punchyface Cruz. Or Sanders, for that matter.

[Giancarlo]

This guy seems to know everything and is all knowing. I guess not someone I would really want a conversation with. Trumps support is low and remains low.

Your point about VP picks is nonsensical.