Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier, what a target

[kentonio]

Except that the US have a load more of them, and if anyone kills 6000 Americans in a sneak attack, you can assume the payback is going to be horrific.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

Except that the US have a load more of them, and if anyone kills 6000 Americans in a sneak attack, you can assume the payback is going to be horrific.

with Obama... maybe. he would probably want to talk for 6 months and the final deal would also include 10 cruise missiles to whoever did it. as long as they promise never to do it again, or at least 10 years.

[kentonio]

O....k....

[PLATO]

Why ? China invades taiwan claiming that it's an internal Chinese matter and US should stay away. US starts interfering with or without war decl. - China legally sinks a couple of US carriers because US is the agressor.

I have seen some scenarios where China launches a lightening invasion while launching its anti-ship ballistic missiles on the Carriers in the area and missile attacks against the Okinawa air bases. The thought is that they can occupy Taiwan before the U.S. could respond with the carriers and air bases out of commission. Then they would sue for a cease fire at the UN.

Not sure if it would be plausible or not, but there is that line of thought out there.

[kentonio]

Chances of the US agreeing to a ceasefire (and not vetoing any such proposal at the security council) if China had just killed tens of thousands of Americans? Does that even sound vaguely plausible?

[My Wife Hates CIV]

Chances of the US agreeing to a ceasefire (and not vetoing any such proposal at the security council) if China had just killed tens of thousands of Americans? Does that even sound vaguely plausible?

one almost has to agree with you - I do... but I think Obama would do everything any anything to end it right away.

[PLATO]

Chances of the US agreeing to a ceasefire (and not vetoing any such proposal at the security council) if China had just killed tens of thousands of Americans? Does that even sound vaguely plausible?

Not really, but it could lead to a short war if the U.S. gets its pound of flesh and has no real desire to mount their own invasion of Taiwan.

[Sepp Blatter]

I have my periscope up now, a rare event these days.

[dannubis]

one almost has to agree with you - I do... but I think Obama would do everything any anything to end it right away.

And from a purely logical standpoint he would be right to do so...

Besides, currently China has much more to loose from a war than it can possibly gain. As long as this is the case, they will avoid direct confrontation.

[grumbler]

The problem with Chinese "lightning invasion" scenarios is that they are implausible. China gets a great deal of benefit from having Taiwan around as an independent power, including a great deal of technology transfer. In addition, Chinese leadership is risk-averse, having seen from, the Great Leap Forward [into the grave] and the Cultural Revolution, how quickly risky ventures can have serious and unforeseen consequences. They have done very well with the status quo (probably better than anyone in the world bar Korea), and to suddenly upset that with a "lightning invasion" of Taiwan wouldn't serve their interests nor their inclinations.

A slow buildup of tensions might eventually yield a war, depending on the other pressures the tensions create, but then the US and Taiwan are much better-prepared.

Regarding ASW, I am aware of the US resurrection of ASW as a major warfare area, but was just noting that, right now, the USN's capability is much more limited (versus current threat) than it was 20 years ago. MFTA deployment is more advanced than I had thought, though, so it isn't as bad as I had earlier contended.

[BlackCat]

Just to clarify, I meant "china invades taiwan" as a "What If" that would end up in sinking US carriers - not one that is very realistic for the moment.

A way more hot thing is this - could end with Vietnam and USA becoming allies .

[Dinner]

I have seen some scenarios where China launches a lightening invasion while launching its anti-ship ballistic missiles on the Carriers in the area and missile attacks against the Okinawa air bases. The thought is that they can occupy Taiwan before the U.S. could respond with the carriers and air bases out of commission. Then they would sue for a cease fire at the UN.

Not sure if it would be plausible or not, but there is that line of thought out there.

Sats would see the force build up before it happens. You put one carrier group north of taiwan, one south of taiwan, then put a bunch of nuclear attack subs in the straights. Combined with the taiwanese defense forces and any land based craft we want to fly over... Well, China wouldn't be able to cross in sufficient numbers to take the island.

[Egbert]

Why ? China invades taiwan claiming that it's an internal Chinese matter and US should stay away. US starts interfering with or without war decl. - China legally sinks a couple of US carriers because US is the agressor.

I reckon there is no chance of hell of anyone, in the USA, worrying about legal technicalities if somebody sank a US carrier.

Whoever did such a thing should expect an almighty clobbering.

[Egbert]

I have seen some scenarios where China launches a lightening invasion while launching its anti-ship ballistic missiles on the Carriers in the area and missile attacks against the Okinawa air bases. The thought is that they can occupy Taiwan before the U.S. could respond with the carriers and air bases out of commission. Then they would sue for a cease fire at the UN.

Not sure if it would be plausible or not, but there is that line of thought out there.

The USA could ignore the UN if it needed to. Nobody would/could do much about it.

Indeed, if vital US interests were at stake there would, no doubt, be support and acquiesence from numerous friends and allies. And the US does have plenty of friends and allies.

[Egbert]

And from a purely logical standpoint he would be right to do so...

Besides, currently China has much more to loose from a war than it can possibly gain. As long as this is the case, they will avoid direct confrontation.

I agree.

However if the Chinese Communist Party found itself losing support to the extent that its hold on power was jeopardised it may try some "adventurism" to gain the support of the masses. A "re-unification of the motherland" might be a way to stoke nationalist sentiment to garner support.

IIRC General Galtieri and his Junta tried to take the Falklands when their power was slipping. (That that did not work out well for them because they lost the war. Had they kept the falklands........ who knows.