[civil] "Greece moves closer to eurozone exit after delaying €300m repayment to IMF "

[C0ckney]

please look up the term primary surplus and then we may continue.

[pchang]

It's not clear the primary surplus still exists. Things have gone downhill quite a bit since last January.

[Elok]

You know those shows where the male lead and his female coworker have simmering romantic tension for like five straight seasons? And they hint and hint and have spats and almost kiss, but you know nothing will happen until they hit a slump and need to shake things up for the audience? That's what's going on here. All this threatening about austerity and bailouts and leaving the EU, it's been going on FOREVER. One of these days, somebody's going to stroll casually into a room and see Tsipras making out with Merkel.

Then, I assume, he'll throw up.

[No really I am Mobius]

I'd help them but I only have ten pounds in change myself

[Dauphin]

it's a result of the policies followed of course. but the point is that those policies have had other, more serious, effects, such as causing the economy to shrink by a quarter; and they have not resolved the fundamental solvency problem.



it's hard to say and it would very much depend on the alternative policies that would have been followed. had greece done what i believe it should have done right at the start of the crisis, that is, defaulted and left the euro, it would be better off now and the main problem it faced, its insolvency, would have been resolved. but as i said, it's difficult to prove a counterfactual.

On the first point, I think economic contraction would have been a consequence of any corrective action.

On point 2, agree they should have defaulted and left by 2012 (or better never joined) for economic reasons. Damn politics got in the way.

[Dinner]

It's not clear the primary surplus still exists. Things have gone downhill quite a bit since last January.

Not to mention the whole idea is kind of dumb. "If we ignore the 10% of the budget that is payments and interest on the debt then everything is fine!" Except, you know, you can't ignore that 10% of the budget.

And then there is the problem you brought up, how they no longer actually have a primary surplus because the government has once again stopped collecting taxes while the banks are closed due to the government being incompetent thus further crashing the economy.

[pchang]

Actually, ignoring that 10% of the budget is the definition of default.

In any case, the bailout program had 2 parts: spending and structural reform. While Greece made the spending changes, they did not make any structural reforms.

[Dinner]

Yep, a point which we have repeatedly brought up and which the anti-folks always ignore.

[C0ckney]

ah yes, the old 'the programme was good, the only problem was the implementation' chestnut. i don't think anyone's buying that.

[C0ckney]

On the first point, I think economic contraction would have been a consequence of any corrective action.

On point 2, agree they should have defaulted and left by 2012 (or better never joined) for economic reasons. Damn politics got in the way.

naturally with a 2009 default, or a later one for that matter, there would have been a sharp correction. however, the central problem would have been resolved and greece could have started to move forward. this is in sharp contrast to the 'road to nowhere', 'death by a thousand cuts', [insert your own metaphor here] approach that we've seen.

[Dauphin]

2009 would be a bit brazen. Bail at the first sign?

[Dinner]

ah yes, the old 'the programme was good, the only problem was the implementation' chestnut. i don't think anyone's buying that.

Cockney, it is a fact that the EU has urged a very specific program of economic liberalization and privitization, designed to get the economy moving and pay down debt, that the Greeks have completely ignored and/failed to do.

[pchang]

Bread and circuses with a no vote.

World bank competitiveness rankings: Greece = 61/189

Limit it to just the OECD high income countries and Greece = 31/31.

[Main_Brain]

I fear Greece is rapidly going towards a failed state in the next few weeks :-[

[Dinner]

Yep. They said no to the rules of the currency union so the ECB has to cut them off. If they don't the other PIIGS will try to do the same and then the Euro really will fall apart. Greece isn't going to want to go but they won't follow the rules so they simply must go. The ECB needs to stop backing Greek banks, let them go bust, and stop delivering currency. Eventually the lack of currency will force the stupid Greeks to issue new drackmas.

They are going to have sky high inflation, 40% unemployment, and shortages of all imported goods but in the long run they will be better off with the new drackma.