[civil] "Greece moves closer to eurozone exit after delaying €300m repayment to IMF "

[pchang]

I read that Greece agreed to transfer 50 Billion Euros worth of assets into a privatization fund. Has this figure been reduced? As for Greek property values: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Greece shows that prices are in decline.

[Bereta_Eder]

Yeah the 50 bill fund was an old joke that keeps resurfacing in every bailout. Don't know why some people like to lie between themselves but there you have it.

Property prices (houses, not islands) are still steady and very expensive in some areas, falling in others. (around 5% in athens overall the last trimester iirc)

[Bereta_Eder]

On a more analytical mode.
The list of privitizations is the same as it ever was and includes things like ports, energy companies, airports, railway companies etc.
Some were grossly mismanaged in the past (the railway company kept giving huge bonuses to the political party's affictionados and could very well benefit from a privitization seeing as the cost for all these political cronies will go down (not gone enteirely because there is an osmosis of private and political drive).

Others such as the port of piraeus has been very efficiently run and has always been profitable. It also has a very strong workers union. I don't think that will be privitized ever.

Why the projected earnings of these sellouts (again if they happen) is so inflated is because everyone likes to lie. Maybe in the begginign they didn't but now they do it in purpose.
While the assets themselves could indeed be very valuable there are a series of particularities that severly dimish their value in the private sector.

Such as very strong workers unions that will simply not accept a privitization any way or the other. Various legal loopholes and administrative costs, bureaucratic labyrinths that one has to navigate through that again diminish their value.

Why everyone is sticking to this I don't know. The deal reached is a deal of principles first.
The thought (by all sides minus jihadist schauble and fruitloops varoufakis) is to immideately avert a euroexit, release the funds, repay the IMF and then go on from there.

This framework of agreement is been seen as an opportunity to effectively change it in course.

However, and despite the self defeting austerity ordoliberalismus of ze germans that renders any bailout unworkable and will finally ruin the eurozone, the real bet of the current gov is to do what it ****ing promised and that is to break the unholly alliance of corrupt private sector and its hold on corrupt public administration.
It is unheard of that severe dyfunctionalities that cost the public , good money, but at the same time fattens the coffers of the five pimps (major corprotational families) as a former PM said remain unchallenged by a gov. of the left.

The troika doesn't give a **** about all that, it keeps being stupid and is the same people as them. **** them liberally.
However, and with a huge public support, tsipras has free reign to actually implement his anti-corruption agenda in the face of troika and the 5 pimps.
Why has he been holding back?
His ratings are at 40% of projected vote if elections were to be held now.
That's because :
a) he's cute
b) he isn't saddled at all with the former political status quo that is as appealing to the public as an infected rat.

Just do it already, he's all powerful inside.

[Bereta_Eder]

A thorn in his side (or the real syriza, take you pick) is the so called hardcore left platform.
This is an assortment of eurocommies and other people that I doubt if they have ever worked a day in their lives or are just the product of the artificial isnemination political tube. (such political teratogenesis is frequent in the neoliberal camp too)

Tsipras rode on this because they are free and wild and can rock very hard. Their achillies heel is that while they can condemn everything with amazing grace, they are in no position to realistically offer an alternative course. (turning into north korea is not an alternative course)

Hence Tsipras will hold elections, maybe in november where the left wing platform will be excluded from the candidates list and they will probably form their own party with a clear anti-euro mandate (and will receive very little support because as I said they are great rockers but louzy accountants)


The second thorn in his side is the bailout program itself which is as bright as an amoeba and if implemented in fulll will indeed turn greece into north korea (in this aspect the hardcore left wing and the troikans are allies which means that rockers and accountants can indeed coexist)


The one thorn he doesnt have is lack of political will for comprehensive reforms.
BUT.. there's a catch there too

public administration (necessairy for the implementation of said reforms) is disjointed and has proven that it can operate independendly of central political power (not because it's decantrilized but because it's unaccountable - and soaked in private interest inferference)

All in all a perfect mess

OTOH he's starting to put forth major revisions of the functioning law of public procurement that will negate the ill effects of public/private entaglement that merry heidi from sound of happiness varoufakis rightly talked about (if he could do more than talk...)

[pchang]

So, what was it like living with the bank closures? Did places take only cash? Did you have to wait in long lines at the bank and how often? What is it like now (banks open, but restrictions)?

[Bereta_Eder]

Well the results of the referendum should tell you it didn't really matter much.
It was quite a shock though. Kind of brought people more together.
But in a nice way.
The calmness demonstrated by the greek public was examplary.

Everyone took cards but the businesses suffered the most. But it had to be done. For many reasons.

One was to see what we were up against and what the course should be from now on.

Oh yeah. Now banks are open. There is no restrictions on electronic banking transactions and/or cards and a restriction of up to I think a bit more than 2000 a month redrawal of hard cash from the ATMs.

I really think the eurozone got saved by a hairwire there. And Greece, as it were.
It will be repeated.

The lines were not that long because all ATMs were loaded. Approximate time of waiting was around 5 to 10 minutes in the first couple of days. Then zero.

The ones who suffered were the pensioners who didn't have bank cards and had to go to the banks themselves. The corrupted corporate media were hilarious in covering this. They basically pushed out every old timer who said "the gov is fighting for us I don't mind waiting" and showed only the onces who said "what a tough time we are going through".


The gov. was fighting for you my dear old timers, and low pensions will not be cut. You're welcome.

[Bereta_Eder]

It really put a dent in Germany's reputation though. The articles are many and I can retrieve them but let's just say we seem to be more cuddly than we appear.

If this was supposed to act as a cease and diseast kind of exercise, it kind of failed horribly.
The mandatory primary surpruses are gone and debt reduction is solidly on the table.

It still won't save the eurozone though, so basically anyone with money (still) is either taking them out or investing them somewhere but not really keeping them in the bank. We are not dealing with sane people here.

[Bereta_Eder]

As to what I did personally, I was having a quarel with my SO for watching too much news. She was saying you're not going to solve the world's problems by yourself. I was saying these are historical times, switch on the TV.
Then we went out and stood politely in a bank ATM qeue and witnessed the justapostiction of the old and the new.
Then we got walking the streets with thousands of euros in our pockets, I didn't know what to do, so we got to a fancy restaurant and we ate. It was full of couples

[pchang]

How did you have thousands of euros? I thought the daily limit was only 60 euros.

[Bereta_Eder]

That was from Monday and for a couple of weeks afterwards.

When Tsipras announced the referendum in Friday midnight you'd have to be dumb not to see what's coming.

[Bereta_Eder]

Also varoufakis is dishonest or clueless about the referendum.
It was done to secure Tsipras' next day in office.

The hardcore left wing platform can use it to say "I have a 61% of the population against the bailout" but Tsipras can say I have 60% of the population in favor of the euro.

The choice was very simple. They were going to throw us out.
Millions of people would have lost their life savings.

Tsipras had no right to do this. He acted responsibly (even at the last minute).

BUT without the referendum the old opposition parties were going to rip him a new *******. He had promised that (magically) the memorandum would be shreded to pieces. That was not going to happen anyway or another.

At least Greece now has a fighting chance of shifting the burden from the have nots to the haves. Also it has a chance to tackle dysfunctionalities that have plagued her for a long time.

The old status quo didn't managed it because it didn't want to. Hell, it created it.

I prefer an honest clueless politician (at least he can learn) to a corrupt useless rich one (he can't magically tranform himself to virgin mary)



I can see the leftwing platform using it to say the people want something else. But they have to tell us how they are going to bring about this something else.
If the financial position deteriorates further they will get pumped up. Actually, they don't have a reson to exist. Only one party (besides the godlen dawn) wants a euroexit and that's the communist party. Go there and tell the people what kind of society you want to build and if they like it.

Untill then Greece is not going to become the ****** that blew it all away in a night.

And it will recover, even with a old parties or with the new one. Even inside or outside the euro. At least now there is a chance that it recovers more fairly and it will not be the school nerd who dropped out first.

[pchang]

What is Varoufakis trying to do? His interviews are not helping.

[Bereta_Eder]

He's free to say what he wants from his perspective.

His plan was to issue IOUs as a responce to the bank freeze. That was the point of no return.

Since there isn't a coded in the treaties way for a eurozexit of any country, such a thing would happen in a chaotic manner.

However there is a method even in chaos. Three steps.

The first is capital controls
The second is issuing IOUs to release liquidity
The third is currency change

He got up to first step

Again. If you have a clear mandate from the people do it. You don't have such a mandate.

His innane post modernist relativist narrative and his provocative inactivity on anything else almost, almost led to a full scale bankrupcy. He's the best friend of schauble they can go out together and go bowling

[Bereta_Eder]

At least his plan didn't involve actually breaking in the treasury of the bank of greece, "liberating" the 25 bil euros as back up plan for the currency change which of course would immideately throw us out of the eurozone, render these euros unusable and fake in international markets, as was allegendly the plan of the hardcore leftwing platform. While having, what? the army patrolling the streets?
Because the people would have immideately lost their savings as the banks would have collapsed enteirely.

There were very dangerous/very stupid people in syriza's midst that only now begin to surface.

We want a new clean social democratic party governace for sensible welath redistribution. For regime change please address your local communist bureau.

[Bereta_Eder]

If they want to actually go that route, they can go through democratic accountable ways.
They can create their own party if the existing communist/stalinist one is too old school for them (but I think they are made out of the same cloth).
They need to present a plan. A concrete plan that will explain how they are going to implement what they want.
And if the people vote for them, then fine.

I have a suggestion, they can name it OXI the great NO said to the axis powers, the great NO said by the people (but to the bailout terms, not the euro/europe).

Because if I'm not mistaken their plan will mean that all savings from ordinary people will be vanished. That there is going to be a period of food rationing. That the state is going to have total control over nearly everything, including the banks which they can direct to lend to their cronies, that the country will be left completely isolated and vulnerable in the balkans.

But maybe I am mistaken and that's not going to happen and they have a brilliant plan that will propel the country to a new gold age.


Now shut the **** up get your butts down to work, break the oligarchies, fix the taxing system, break the vicious circle of public/private entaglement and then when Greece can stand on its own legs again (or when the eurozone would have collapsed) then you can say as many proud NOs as you want. That's my take on it and I might be wrong but I don't think so.

But anyway, the parliement stayed up all night talking about the new bailout in an exhausting meeting.

I read that syriza suffered 43 MP losses. That means it's under the 120 MPs that guarantee confidence status in the gov. It is now obliged to go to a vote of confidence by the parliement.

The new bailout plan got voted with 222 votes in favor and 64 against and 11 present and syriza just lost a very big chunk of its support MP base.

----
But anyway yes varoufakis is right on one thing: with debt levels such high no bailout is going to work.

But, if you pay close attention the IMF (US) is not going to participate in a new bailout if there is no debt restructuring.
And just today France took a clear in favor of debt restructuring.
Shauble is also isolated it's not just us.

Even that (*9(*&^ finland is saying "oh we trust the new gov. the euro was in danger but now it's not, we'll vote the bailout". What a magical 180 turn.

So you have a someone pointing a gun at you (debt), he can turn the gun the other way or he can shoot.
What varoufakis was tryng to do was pulling out a gun and shoot himself so that the other would not have a chance to shoot him.

Where is the logic in that?


As for flip flops?

Listen to how many flip flops the ordoliberalis did.

"If Greece votes no, it's out of the euro"

"There won't be a debt restructuring"

"There will not be new money for Greece"

They ate it up.
Syriza thought it could change some things in the eurozone and it couldn't.
Politics is the art of the feasable. Deal with the real. Go forward.