is this a real thing that is actually happening?

[kentonio]

I've just read an article and it says that hussein chelik (spokesman of gov. islamic party) said turkey will recognize an independent kurdistan, if it declares an idndependence. lately there have been many commercial signings and deplomatic relations between the two. something that has pissed off baghdat. that's funny. turks can't even step foot on diyarbakir but they are welcome in iraqi kurdistan.
time will show i guess

Yeah, here it is. Wow..

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/turkey/29062014

Can only assume that the Kurdistan president has been giving Turkey some really, really convincing guarantees about not trying to expand their borders if this actually happens.

[Elok]

WB, GePap! Been a while . . .

As for the rest of Iraq, it doesn't sound good to me. ISIS (or whatever they are now) don't sound like they can gain control. I'm pretty sure Maliki can't, either. Jordan and Lebanon are said to be teetering; will the Kurds be able to hold together if the whole region turns into a meatgrinder for the next couple of decades?

[GePap]

WB, GePap! Been a while . . .

As for the rest of Iraq, it doesn't sound good to me. ISIS (or whatever they are now) don't sound like they can gain control. I'm pretty sure Maliki can't, either. Jordan and Lebanon are said to be teetering; will the Kurds be able to hold together if the whole region turns into a meatgrinder for the next couple of decades?

I was curious about what had happened to this place.

I think Jordan is safe for now, in the sense that neither the Palestinians or Bedouins really buy into the Islamic State label, right now, though King Abdullah might need to make some additional democratic concessions soon. As for Lebanon, it has been in a on-off crisis for a while, but most of its border with Syria is now in the hands of Assad, so the ISIS threat would be internal.

As for the Kurds, they have the mountains and a supportive, stable homefrot, so they can certainly keep ISIS out.

[C0ckney]

Can only assume that the Kurdistan president has been giving Turkey some really, really convincing guarantees about not trying to expand their borders if this actually happens.

or that the turks know it's going to happen, can't/won't do what's necessary to prevent it and therefore believe that it's best not to ruin their current good relations with the iraqi kurds.

[Fake Boris]

Gepap

[Dinner]

the kurdish government has announced plans to hold a referendum on statehood.

link

Judging by what I saw and heard while there I would be surprised if such a referendum didn't get 90% approval though even then the people who vote no would all be non-kurds living in Kurdistan. It will be interesting to see if Turkey really has become more reasonable or if Iraqi Kurdistan becomes even more of a base for the PKK to launch attacks on Turkish Kurdistan. Oh, and you just know that Syrian Kurdistan would join Iraqi Kurdistan the moment they can.

[C0ckney]

yes, although there would be a number of practical difficulties with that. it will be interesting to see how things develop.

[Sava]

GePap sighting!

Gepap

[Al B. Sure!]

More US troops heading over.

[Bereta_Eder]

Isis sound very close to iris

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iris_%28mythology%29

and iris

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdYWuo9OFAw&feature=kp

[Elok]

That's the one silver lining (from our perspective only, of course):I keep reading news reports worrying about the region possibly becoming an incubator for international terrorism, but it sounds like it won't reach that point, if it gets there at all, until years have passed and some sort of Islamist ****hole regime has acquired control. Until then, I imagine every murder-happy schmuck with a Koran and an AK will be headed straight for the Mesopotamian Meatgrinder to support his faction of choice. Aided by money from Iran or the Gulf States (depending on faction) until somebody runs out of money and/or people to throw down the hole. Is that about the shape of things?

Xpost

[Al B. Sure!]

That's the one silver lining (from our perspective only, of course):I keep reading news reports worrying about the region possibly becoming an incubator for international terrorism, but it sounds like it won't reach that point, if it gets there at all, until years have passed and some sort of Islamist ****hole regime has acquired control. Until then, I imagine every murder-happy schmuck with a Koran and an AK will be headed straight for the Mesopotamian Meatgrinder to support his faction of choice. Aided by money from Iran or the Gulf States (depending on faction) until somebody runs out of money and/or people to throw down the hole. Is that about the shape of things?

Xpost

That is literally what Iraq was during the counterinsurgency

[Elok]

So, same thing, but more so?

[Al B. Sure!]

Yes but without America. At least yet.

[kentonio]

Scary thing is, that's a lot of people! There are some pretty majorly radical elements here in Cardiff and some are quite literally my neighbours as there's a local mosque that people have arrested at in connection with terrorist activities.

To be fair, if I had to live in Cardiff I'd be pretty angry too.