The Impossibility of Growth

[Felch]

Economic growth does not come only from the "resources" which are material, the main driver is immaterial, ie knowing how to use existing resources better.

In principle it boils down to information and energy, and in it's base both of those resources are infinite as far as we can tell, so there can be growth forever. Energy itself will not be based on oil for a long time in the future, future energy needs will be nuclear - fission for next who knows how many centuries until we figure fusion out.

The rest is neither here nor there, as the "growth" is mainly not material like the physical box the OP would want to indicate.

Growth for basic needs, like housing or food will stop as world population stabilizes, and for the rest, we will continue inventing, or expanding, there is plenty of opportunity, so no - this will not take us out, it is our ignorant nature combined with greed which will create conditions which will not be very favourable for more and more people, which is the trajectory we are on right now, at least in the "west". Looking from global perspective though the east more than makes up for our slack, so it is not all "doom and gloom" out there right now, barring some catastrophe - and we know we are catastrophe prone, but still holding out.

This is absolutely true.

This of an empty iPod versus an iPod filled with awesome music. They both use the same amount of plastic and metal, but the latter is infinitely more valuable to a person. The only change is in the arrangement of magnet domains on the hard drive. In other words, information and energy.

[AAAAAAAAH!]

NO FELCH
THEY OCCUPY THE SAME VOLUME
AND IF THE VOLUME GREW 5% A YEAR FOR 500 YEARS JUST THINK OF HOW BIG THE IpOD WOULD GET!

[Aeson]

There are still a lot of resources (sunlight on roadways and rooftops for instance) we just let go to waste. So there's obviously room for more growth. As technology progresses the room should continue increasing.

The idea that growth is solely on the back of fossil fuels is clearly wrong. An organic farmer today can grow a lot more produce per unit of area than they could just 50 years ago because of a better understanding of how the whole system works and better seeds to work with. Advances in hybrid strains and understanding of the system in general are only going to continue to increase.

It's also entirely possible that such a setup would actually be producing more energy than it consumed (at least if you don't count sunlight and ambient temperature towards the net). Cheap fossil fuels are likely the reason that hasn't already happened on a massive scale. Once energy costs increase, so will the impetus for producing energy. Then you'll see a lot more systems for harvesting methane from agricultural waste products. (Though it's feasible today at least in some areas of agriculture.)

[Sava]

hybrid strains

[pchang]

Actually no. There has been nearly no growth for 60,000 years; the current trend won't be sustained for long.

You are apparently unfamiliar with the shape of exponential functions.

[Kidlicious]

There are still a lot of resources (sunlight on roadways and rooftops for instance) we just let go to waste. So there's obviously room for more growth. As technology progresses the room should continue increasing.

The idea that growth is solely on the back of fossil fuels is clearly wrong. An organic farmer today can grow a lot more produce per unit of area than they could just 50 years ago because of a better understanding of how the whole system works and better seeds to work with. Advances in hybrid strains and understanding of the system in general are only going to continue to increase.

It's also entirely possible that such a setup would actually be producing more energy than it consumed (at least if you don't count sunlight and ambient temperature towards the net). Cheap fossil fuels are likely the reason that hasn't already happened on a massive scale. Once energy costs increase, so will the impetus for producing energy. Then you'll see a lot more systems for harvesting methane from agricultural waste products. (Though it's feasible today at least in some areas of agriculture.)

Population is going to peak in 30 or 40 years. Idk if the cost of energy is going ti go up that much by then.

[Elok]

Was I the only one who looked at the thread title and thought, "somebody's penis-enlarger pills didn't pan out"?

[ZEE]

elok made a nerd-joke™ everyBody!

[Sava]

Was I the only one who looked at the thread title and thought, "somebody's penis-enlarger pills didn't pan out"?

[N35t0r]

Also, just wait until we colonize other solar systems, than we get exponentially more resources

[Sava]

ultimately, I suspect we'll find ourselves stuck here... our only hope lying in "seeding" other worlds over the course of thousands of years

[Kidlicious]

I'm sure Oncle isn't bothered about having a smally.

[Lorizael]

Also, just wait until we colonize other solar systems, than we get exponentially more resources

That's not what exponential means. (Resource extraction is probably already exponential, as pchang sort of mentioned above.)

[Sava]

That's not what exponential means. (Resource extraction is probably already exponential, as pchang sort of mentioned above.)

He's simply implying that exponential growth would be occurring during that process... not that the process is exponential just because it involves colonizing other worlds.

at least, that's how i read it

[Lorizael]

You seem to have trouble with the difference between "if ... then" statements and "and" statements.