The Impossibility of Growth

[Sava]

So where is this giant rock under our feet going to go!?

[AAAAAAAAH!]

Actually no. There has been nearly no growth for 60,000 years; the current trend won't be sustained for long.

Are you seriously extrapolating a trend that existed in hunter-gatherer societies to make a forecast for the coming centuries?

[AAAAAAAAH!]

AAAH and Save don't seem to understand that it takes resources to grab resources...

Uhh yes? Just because resources have costs doesn't mean we're on the verge of collapse.

[AAAAAAAAH!]

Great Pacific garbage patch

Yes, pollution exists.

[Fake Boris]

Are you seriously extrapolating a trend that existed in hunter-gatherer societies to make a forecast for the coming centuries?

You failed to read your own post it seems.

[Felch]

I'm confused by your claim "There has been nearly no growth for 60,000 years." While records from the Middle Paleolithic are spotty at best, I'm pretty sure that modern humans are generally wealthier than our stone age ancestors, and far less likely to be eaten by saber-tooth tigers.

[Sava]

you never know, if people were like people are, they'd be swapping derivatives of saber-tooth home protection loans

or some other bull****

so it's possible they were already ahead with the whole "value that doesn't actually exist" business

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Economic growth does not come only from the "resources" which are material, the main driver is immaterial, ie knowing how to use existing resources better.

In principle it boils down to information and energy, and in it's base both of those resources are infinite as far as we can tell, so there can be growth forever. Energy itself will not be based on oil for a long time in the future, future energy needs will be nuclear - fission for next who knows how many centuries until we figure fusion out.

The rest is neither here nor there, as the "growth" is mainly not material like the physical box the OP would want to indicate.

Growth for basic needs, like housing or food will stop as world population stabilizes, and for the rest, we will continue inventing, or expanding, there is plenty of opportunity, so no - this will not take us out, it is our ignorant nature combined with greed which will create conditions which will not be very favourable for more and more people, which is the trajectory we are on right now, at least in the "west". Looking from global perspective though the east more than makes up for our slack, so it is not all "doom and gloom" out there right now, barring some catastrophe - and we know we are catastrophe prone, but still holding out.

[Kidlicious]

AAAH and Save don't seem to understand that it takes resources to grab resources...

I'm sure even Sava understands that a shovel is a resource.

[Sava]

a shovel is a tool, just like you

ZING

[Fake Boris]

I'm confused by your claim "There has been nearly no growth for 60,000 years." While records from the Middle Paleolithic are spotty at best, I'm pretty sure that modern humans are generally wealthier than our stone age ancestors, and far less likely to be eaten by saber-tooth tigers.

Almost all growth occurred from the 1800s onward.

[Fake Boris]

Economic growth does not come only from the "resources" which are material, the main driver is immaterial, ie knowing how to use existing resources better.

In principle it boils down to information and energy, and in it's base both of those resources are infinite as far as we can tell, so there can be growth forever. Energy itself will not be based on oil for a long time in the future, future energy needs will be nuclear - fission for next who knows how many centuries until we figure fusion out.

The rest is neither here nor there, as the "growth" is mainly not material like the physical box the OP would want to indicate.

Growth for basic needs, like housing or food will stop as world population stabilizes, and for the rest, we will continue inventing, or expanding, there is plenty of opportunity, so no - this will not take us out, it is our ignorant nature combined with greed which will create conditions which will not be very favourable for more and more people, which is the trajectory we are on right now, at least in the "west". Looking from global perspective though the east more than makes up for our slack, so it is not all "doom and gloom" out there right now, barring some catastrophe - and we know we are catastrophe prone, but still holding out.

Leaving climate change aside and all the other **** of course

[AAAAAAAAH!]

You failed to read your own post it seems.

I think it's more likely you don't have any clue what you're talking about.

[Sava]

yeah. that one

[Felch]

Almost all growth occurred from the 1800s onward.

Right, but that growth has been substantial.

If you're hypothesis only makes sense by ignoring the past two centuries of human progress, then it's a stupid hypothesis.