Bus-Sized Asteroid Hurtles Past Earth

[Sava]

well i'm not sure why you fear quakers

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

I used to be afraid of that evil old woman on the Quaker Oats boxes...

[PLATO]

I used to be afraid of that evil old woman on the Quaker Oats boxes...

Quaking about Quaker Oats.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

I was four and it was the 60's but yes.

Not as scary as Mr. Clean, of course.

I never did catch the Chuckwagon, either.

[Lorizael]

The likelihood of a catastrophic asteroid strike is vanishingly small. I'm not sure why you guys are quaking in fear.

Actually, the likelihood is essentially 1. The likelihood that it happens tomorrow is vanishingly small. Of course, it will always be vanishingly small tomorrow, right up until the day our civilization ends.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Or we get a nice knock which does not exactly end the civilization, but makes us move our collective asses in a meaningful direction.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

We'll just fight over what's left...

[PLATO]

Or we get a nice knock which does not exactly end the civilization, but makes us move our collective asses in a meaningful direction.

Or we get off this rock before the inevitable happens.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Well, if we get enough time, and do not kill each other in the meantime - we will get off this rock, just for fun, if no other better reason comes along.

[Berzerker]

damn bugs almost got us

[Hauldren Collider]

Actually, the likelihood is essentially 1. The likelihood that it happens tomorrow is vanishingly small. Of course, it will always be vanishingly small tomorrow, right up until the day our civilization ends.

Don't be fatuous. The likelihood that it will happen in any of our lifetimes, or our children's lifteimes, or grandchildren's lifetimes is vanishingly small.

The whole "oh no asteroids!!111" crap is just sci fi nerds jacking off to Deep Impact and Larry Niven books and wishing they could ride in a galactic hydrogen ramjet.

We don't need a defense. Probability is our defense.

[pchang]

So sayeth the dinosaur.

[Lorizael]

Don't be fatuous. The likelihood that it will happen in any of our lifetimes, or our children's lifteimes, or grandchildren's lifetimes is vanishingly small.

The whole "oh no asteroids!!111" crap is just sci fi nerds jacking off to Deep Impact and Larry Niven books and wishing they could ride in a galactic hydrogen ramjet.

We don't need a defense. Probability is our defense.

If the odds of dying in a catastrophic asteroid impact in any given year are 1 in 65 million, then ~108 people die per year from catastrophic asteroid impacts. Don't you care that some of those 108 might be rich?

[Hauldren Collider]

No.

Don't be retarded, Lori.

Also, 1 in 65 million is probably way, way too high.

[Lorizael]

For a mass extinction-level impact, probably. But the odds of us getting hit by something that could take out a city are significantly higher. That said, my naive calculation above doesn't really do justice to the effects of an extinction-level event. That is to say, if we get hit by another dinosaur-killer, it kills the 7 billion alive today but also ensures that no other humans are ever born. That is a mighty death toll to contend with, and it makes calculating the true risk of an impact event tricky.