Anyone else (possibly) getting a mandatory vacation come Tuesday?

[Sava]

Exactly. The House is not going to change much, unfortunately because of gerrymandering.

The House won't change much because there's a 90% incumbent retention rate. Gerrymandering has always been around. Nothing happened in 2010 that drastically changed how it works. Idiot.

[MrFun]

Oh. I understand. You haven't been paying attention to current events.

Dude .... explain to us then how Tea Bagger-type House Republicans are going to lose their seats, if their districts are so fucked up the way they're gerrymandered as to ensure that the only voters they represent are extreme right-wing nuts?

[MrFun]

The House won't change much because there's a 90% incumbent retention rate. Gerrymandering has always been around. Nothing happened in 2010 that drastically changed how it works. Idiot.

So ... then why are you arguing here that this shutdown crisis will cost House Republicans??

You may have had a chance in 2014 to make some gains in the Senate. Now, you'll be lucky to keep the House.

[Guynemer]

The House won't change much because there's a 90% incumbent retention rate. Gerrymandering has always been around. Nothing happened in 2010 that drastically changed how it works. Idiot.

It has gotten worse; the number of competitive districts has been cut in half over the past decade or so.

[Sava]

For anyone interested.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-politics-of-the-shutdown/

[Sava]

It has gotten worse; the number of competitive districts has been cut in half over the past decade or so.

Incorrect.

[Guynemer]

According to stats quoted in Time, which cites the Cook Political Report, the National Journal, and PRWeb:

76% of Dem districts became more blue in 2012
60% of GOP became more red

and there has been a 45% decline in the number of swing districts since 1998.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

YES AWESOME POOR PEOPLE CANT GET FOOD HAR HAR HAR

Take it up with Harry "Why would I want to help a dieing child?" Reid. The house passed a piece meal appropriation funding food stamps.


http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...-jim-geraghty#!

[Dinner]

According to stats quoted in Time, which cites the Cook Political Report, the National Journal, and PRWeb:

76% of Dem districts became more blue in 2012
60% of GOP became more red

and there has been a 45% decline in the number of swing districts since 1998.

The one thing the two parties can agree on is gerrymandering so they none of the politicians ever loses an election. That's why none of them ever lose a seat.

This is a massive problem and not just because it subverts and obstructs democracy itself but also because it causes the politicians to become even more extremist even though the majority of the population doesn't want them to be extremist.

[Patroklos]

I like how I had to cover for the furloughed workers at my office while they were gone (as much as I could without getting caught, they don't do much anyway though) and now they are going to get paid for my work while getting a free six day weekend.

These GSs have a pretty good racket, they went from getting paid to do almost nothing to getting paid for doing nothing while actually having everyone feel sorry for them.

[MrFun]

The one thing the two parties can agree on is gerrymandering so they none of the politicians ever loses an election. That's why none of them ever lose a seat.

This is a massive problem and not just because it subverts and obstructions democracy itself but also because it causes the politicians to become even more extremist even though the majority of the population doesn't want them to be extremist.

QFT

[Sava]

According to stats quoted in Time, which cites the Cook Political Report, the National Journal, and PRWeb:

76% of Dem districts became more blue in 2012
60% of GOP became more red

and there has been a 45% decline in the number of swing districts since 1998.

I don't have any data to examine, so I can't comment. Gerrymandering is as old as this country. There are periods when one party gains an advantage over the other. We're in a very polarized political atmosphere nowadays. I'm just not going to accept the notion that gerrymandering suddenly became that much more powerful in the last 10 years without an extensive study.

How does this phantom Time article measure a "swing" district? There are so many questions. You've mentioned an article that may or may not be based upon an analyst's opinion.

But with regards to 2014... I'll say this. The non-presidential party has only failed to gain seats in the mid-term election of a President's second term once since 1822. This was 1998. What happened in 1998? People were pissed that the Republicans were wasting everyone's time and money impeaching Bill Clinton over the Lewinsky affair. The Republicans got punished for it.

This whole shutdown debacle is even more significant an issue... and even more unpopular.

They may not lose the House. But I suspect they will fail to gain seats... perhaps having around 225 when things are all said and done.

[Aeson]

Yes, the Democrats are refusing to pass the budget passed by the chamber responsible for creating the budget.

If the only desired input into the budget was the house, that's how the government would be set up. We have checks and balances for a reason.

[regexcellent]

It's more than just gerrymandering, it's also that rural, suburban, midwestern, and southern voters are now more conservative, while urban, west coast, and northeastern voters are now more liberal.

[Hauldren Collider]

There's been a lot of geographic self-sorting. It's strange. I would expect the opposite with the increased interconnectedness of our country. Even as culture homogenizes, political affiliations diverge.