Syria thread

[Sava]

Sava, are you sure you don't think the rebels winning would be a good outcome?

Considering the respective parties, the only good outcome is "nobody wins".

Destroying tons of Syrian military hardware with air strikes and cruise missiles is a very good thing. Then, whoever is left standing, has only small arms at their disposal.

This is what you twerps need to understand. This isn't about storming the beaches so the good guys can win. Whoever wins is going to be bad. So let's break all their toys.

That's what this is about.

[regexcellent]

As Henry Kissinger said of the Iran-Iraq War, "it's a shame they can't both lose."

[The Mad Monk]

Right, and we all know that Assad's people are a distinct minority there, and have a severe disadvantage numerically -- so why break all their toys?

[Sava]

Assad's people, the Alawites, are a distinct minority.

(I'm assuming you were trying to be sarcastic)

Alawites represent 12% of the Syrian population

[The Mad Monk]

That's pretty minor, especially given that there's no way they're all under arms.

[Sava]

BTW, this is basically the Bush doctrine coming to fruition. The swamp is being drained. We just had to do the heavy lifting in Iraq. But now the old regimes are falling. Egypt. Libya. Tunisia. Syria.

The borders are drawn up as to prevent a popular Islamic uprising from turning into a larger political entity. If the Middle East is going to be a ****storm for decades, let it be a ****storm where nobody has tanks, an airforce, or weapons of mass destruction.

[The Mad Monk]

It will happen soon enough without our encouragement. That environment is very hard on hardware.

[C0ckney]

the onion nails it.

So, What’s It Going To Be?
COMMENTARY • Opinion • ISSUE 49•35 • Aug 28, 2013
By Bashar Al-Assad

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Well, here we are. It’s been two years of fighting, over 100,000 people are dead, there are no signs of this war ending, and a week ago I used chemical weapons on my own people. If you don’t do anything about it, thousands of Syrians are going to die. If you do something about it, thousands of Syrians are going to die. Morally speaking, you’re on the hook for those deaths no matter how you look at it.

So, it’s your move, America. What’s it going to be?

I’ve looked at your options, and I’m going to be honest here, I feel for you. Not exactly an embarrassment of riches you’ve got to choose from, strategy-wise. I mean, my God, there are just so many variables to consider, so many possible paths to choose, each fraught with incredible peril, and each leading back to the very real, very likely possibility that no matter what you do it’s going to backfire in a big, big way. It’s a good old-fashioned mess, is what this is! And now, you have to make some sort of decision that you can live with.

So, where do I begin? Well, this is just the tip of the iceberg, but let’s start with the fact that my alliance with Russia and China means that nothing you decide to do will have the official support of the UN Security Council. So, right off the bat, I’ve already eliminated the possibility of a legally sound united coalition like in Libya or the First Gulf War. Boom. Gone. Off the table.

Now, let’s say you’re okay with that, and you decide to go ahead with, oh, I don’t know, a bombing campaign. Now, personally, I can see how that might seem like an attractive option for you. No boots on the ground, it sends a clear message, you could cripple some of my government’s infrastructure, and it’s a quick, clean, easy way to punish me and make you look strong in the face of my unimaginable tyranny. But let’s get real here. Any bombing campaign capable of being truly devastating to my regime would also end up killing a ton of innocent civilians, as such things always do, which I imagine is the kind of outcome you people would feel very guilty about. You know, seeing as you are so up in arms to begin with about innocent Syrians dying. Plus, you’d stoke a lot of anti-American hatred and quite possibly create a whole new generation of Syrian-born jihadists ready to punish the United States for its reckless warmongering and yadda yadda yadda.

Okay, what else? Well, you could play small-ball and hope that limited airstrikes to a few of my key military installations will send me the message to refrain from using chemical weapons again, but, c’mon, check me out: I’m ruthless, I’m desperate, and I’m going to do everything I can to stay in power. I’d use chemical weapons again in a heartbeat. You know that. And I know you know that. Hell, I want to help you guys out here, but you gotta be realistic. Trust me, I am incapable of being taught a lesson at this point. Got it? I am too far gone. Way too far gone.

Oh, and I know some of you think a no-fly zone will do the trick, but we both know you can’t stomach the estimated $1 billion a month that would cost, so wave bye-bye to that one, too.

Moving on.

I suppose you could always, you know, not respond with military force at all. But how can you do that? I pumped sarin gas into the lungs of my own people, for God’s sake! You can’t just let me get away with that, can you? I mean, I guess you easily could, and spare yourself all of this headache, but then you would probably lose any of your remaining moral high ground on the world stage and make everything from the Geneva Conventions to America’s reputation as a beacon for freedom and democracy around the world look like a complete sham.

And, hey, as long as we’re just throwing stuff out there, let’s consider a ground invasion for a moment. Now, even if you could reasonably fund a ground invasion, which I’m pretty sure you can’t, what exactly would such an invasion accomplish in the long term? I suppose it’s possible that you could come in and sweep me out the door and that would be the end of it. It’s possible. You know, like, in the sense that seeing a majestic white Bengal tiger in the wild is possible. Or, more likely, you could find yourself entrenched in a full-blown civil war that drags on for 15 years and sets off further turmoil in the rest of the region, leading to even more dead bodies for your country and mine, and even more virulent hatred of America. In fact, boy, maybe this is the one option that should be totally off the table.

Oh, and speaking of me being toppled from power, let’s say, just for fun, that tomorrow I were to somehow be dethroned. Who’s in charge? Half of these rebel groups refuse to work with one another and it’s getting harder to tell which ones are actually just Islamic extremists looking to fill a potential power vacuum. We’ve got Christians, Sunnis, and Shias all poised to fight one another for control should I fall. You want to be the ones sorting through that mess when you’re trying to build a new government? I didn’t think so.

So, all in all, quite the pickle you’re in, isn’t it? I have to say, I do not envy you here. Really curious to see where you go with this one.

I’ll leave you with this: I am insane. Not insane enough to generate worldwide unanimity that I cannot remain in charge of my own country. That would make this a lot easier. No, unfortunately, I’m just sane and stable enough to remain in power and devise cunning military and political strategies while at the same time adhering to a standard of morality that only the most perverse and sociopathic among us would be capable of adopting. But nevertheless, I am insane, so do with that information what you will.

Long story short, I’m going to keep doing my best to hold on to my country no matter what the cost. If that means bombing entire towns, murdering small children, or shooting at UN weapons inspectors, so be it. I’m in this for the long haul. And you will do...whatever it is you’re going to do, which is totally up to you. Your call.

Anyway, let me know what you decide. I’ll be waiting.

[DaShi]

Plato: "What is truly galling is that your knee jerk reaction was simply to say "No credibility" and expect that to have some meaning when you have demonstrated neither a knowledge of what I have said or history itself. To say that this is not Iraq, this is Vietnam is obviously a way to say "Be Wary, we have started this way before" and the context of all my posts will support this meaning. What am I to interpret from your baseless remarks except that you in fact haven't read my old posts or the ones I have made in this thread?"

The second thing I hate about arguing with mindless conservatives is that after you've trounced them a second time, they then try to claim you said something you didn't. They don't even try to twist your words. They outright make up ****. I guess since everything they believe in is made up anyway, it doesn't matter just to make up more **** so they can continue to pretend that they aren't stupid.

I wonder if the third thing I hate will pop up.

Plato, you've become a joke and it's so amusing how quickly I brought you to this.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Seems like our assault plans were leaked

Course if they laugh at us, well then the gloves come off and we'll give them a swirlie. The we open up the special plans for operation “just muscular enough not to get mocked”.

Luckily our crack admin strategic planners came up with a better alternative. I submit to you plan "If Assad is eating Cheerios, we're going to take away his spoon and give him a fork."

Ohh and not one of those decent forks but a plastic one that will break about two forkfulls in. Wahahaha!! Pure genius.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/08/syria-tomahawk-missiles-chemical-weapons/2770949/

[Sava]

So... you want more bombing or less?

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Bombing with plastic foks

[The Mad Monk]

Fokker.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Bombing with plastic foks

Not to worry Putin has the golden opportunity to save the day. Kerry opened his mouth and gave Syria an adhoc/non-scripted/Bidenesque out re: turning in Syria's stockpile of chemical wepons to the UN. Putin is going to try to make Syria comply and in the process look like the hero, in stark contrast to the leadership of the US.

[regexcellent]

Who wants to bet they'll turn in part of the stockpile, get the pass, then keep on gassing?