Gun Homicide rate down 49% since '93; public unaware

[Sava]

Kuci and Jaguar are actuaries, and Kuci is the person who has taught me most of what I know about stats and probability...

I hope you find a better mentor in the future.

My opinion of Kuci is a bit biased because most of my interactions with him were before he was old enough to drive. It's possible he's grown and matured since the early to mid 2000's. He doesn't post here as much anymore, so that's a good sign. I remember him being much the way you are now... a little punk who was big on opinions and bluster, but light on actual facts... and spoke as if he was an authority on everything. He also (along with Jag) didn't seem to have a great understanding of what sarcasm is. I had a few private convos with Jag. He's all right. Though, when I chatted with him and he realized my whole ALLCAPSRAWRAWR hyperbolic deal here was... you know... not real... I couldn't help but facepalm.

But they were teenagers back then. You are a teenager now (IIRC). I'm not trying to bash you or be like "hurrrr you are young and stoopid". Nor do I think I'm in any position to lecture anyone about maturity.

I post here to fuck around and entertain myself. Most of the political talk boils down to an exchange of talking points. That's boring. Whenever someone tries to speak passionately about something they believe, I can't help but make fun of them.

Hmm... I kind of lost my train of thought. I have to pee.

Anyways, I just don't want you to get all butthurt. I'm a dick, but it's meant to be friendly ball-busting. That's all.

[Sava]

How else is the average Joe going to find out about violent crime statistics, Sava?

There's this thing called the internet.

It's a wonderful tool.

It gives me donkey porn and FBI crime statistics.

Accurate information is available to those who want it. I don't think there's any excuse to be an idiot.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

There's an inherent drawback with focussing solely on homicides, rather than all assaults using firearms- what initially looks like a drop in crime rates can actually turn out to be an improvement in emergency health care.

[MikeH]

The article has data about both, and all non fatal violent crime. All three showing the same downward trend.

[Lorizael]

That's an interesting point, except the article says:

The Bureau of Justice Statistics, an office of the justice department, found that non-fatal firearms crimes dropped by 69% from 1.5 million to 467,300 during the period under study.

Edit: Jerk move, MikeH, beating me to the punch when I'm just coming back.

[MikeH]

Too slow Lori.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Throughout the report, NCVS data from 2006 are reported but should be interpreted with caution. In 2006, several methodological changes were made to the NCVS data collection that distinguish it from other years (Truman and Planty, 2012).

I can't find what the changes were. Annoying.

[MikeH]

STATISTICS NINJA HC TO THE RESCUE!

[Asher]

My understanding of statistics and probability, while nowhere near the level of Kuci, Jaguar, or KH, or probably JM (I don't know how much JM knows about stats but since he is a physics PhD it's safe to guess "more than me"), is far better than Asher's, and most people's. Has nothing to do with adult life experience, which I've never pretended to have much in the way of.

Here's what you need to know about stats: Your display in this thread is pathetic and betrays you have no reasonable position on the subject matter.

Do they teach you this kind of stuff in your school? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

[Asher]

A whole 7%. That definitely explains the drop.

By the way, literally everyone attempting to find cause and effect in this thread with statistics is a massive idiot who doesn't understand the first thing about statistics.

Perhaps you should re-read the thread, this time paying attention to the words written.

My posts actually demonstrated exactly what you are now trying to say - there's a million variables such that you can't attribute any specific thing.

[regexcellent]

Gun ownership has been increasing over the past decade, especially among the young.

40% of Americans have guns in the household. The number of guns per capita has also been increasing; as I recall, there is now more than one gun per American citizen in private hands.

[Sava]

Gun ownership has been increasing over the past decade, especially among the young.

You've already been proven wrong about this. Why keep repeating incorrect information? Just because it feels right?

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Just out of interest, what was happening with lead additives to petrol around the early 90s and onwards in the US? There are some really intriguing theories linking it to trends in crime.

[Aeson]

By the way, literally everyone attempting to find cause and effect in this thread with statistics is a massive idiot who doesn't understand the first thing about statistics.

Edit: On careful reading of the thread, it looks like the only person really guilty of this ...

You finally realized that Asher is literally everyone

[Japher]

If you legalize marijuana I bet gun crime drops even more.

Though suicides might go up