And Romney's VP is....

[kentonio]

I suggest you check again. Here's a link to help you.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html



You really need to stop getting your polling data from Rasmussen.

[Wezil]

If Obama sucks half as bad as Republicans think, what does that say about Romney?

[H Tower]

And next week Romney will say something smart and the gap will close again. Or Obama will say something stupid and the gap will close. What I see is that Romney hasn't been able to get his numbers above Obama, for more than a single day. The trend is that Obama has the lead.

[Hauldren Collider]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/aug-9-national-polls-shouldnt-panic-romney/

[Felch]

What's the electoral college breakdown look like?

Personally, I'd like to see Romney lose, since that could be a big boost to the libertarian wing of the GOP. A Romney victory would only reinforce the establishment.

[kentonio]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-panic-romney/

Did you really just link to a site that shows Obama with a 73% chance of winning?

[Hauldren Collider]

Did you really just link to a site that shows Obama with a 73% chance of winning?

^^^obviously has not been reading my posts very carefully

[kentonio]

What's the electoral college breakdown look like?

303.6-234.4

[Hauldren Collider]

And next week Romney will say something smart and the gap will close again. Or Obama will say something stupid and the gap will close. What I see is that Romney hasn't been able to get his numbers above Obama, for more than a single day. The trend is that Obama has the lead.

The thing is, polls right now either aren't using likely voter models or are using likely voter models that are basically intrinsically inaccurate because of how far from the election we are. You can expect a natural shift towards Romney as the likely voter models start getting better and show the inevitable higher Republican turnout that occurs every election.

[Kuciwalker]

If you are using anything other than 538 then you are doing it wrong. And you should not expect 538 to move in any particular direction.

[Hauldren Collider]

If you are using anything other than 538 then you are doing it wrong. And you should not expect 538 to move in any particular direction.

RCP is fine as well.

It's also more straightforward. I'm not totally sure I trust the way 538 uses economic variables.

[giblets]

The thing is, polls right now either aren't using likely voter models or are using likely voter models that are basically intrinsically inaccurate because of how far from the election we are. You can expect a natural shift towards Romney as the likely voter models start getting better and show the inevitable higher Republican turnout that occurs every election.

Yes, let us not forget the "voter fraud" laws in swing states with Republican state governments. Minorities simply aren't "likely voters"

[Hauldren Collider]

Yes, let us not forget the "voter fraud" laws in swing states with Republican state governments. Minorities simply aren't "likely voters"

Republicans have had consistently higher turnout in every election for like 25 years.

[kentonio]

Republicans have had consistently higher turnout in every election for like 25 years.

Erm, wouldn't that mean they would have won every election for 25 years?

[regexcellent]

First of all, he means by proportion, and second, there are independents.