CanPol: *****-umen Showdown

[Asher]

Why would they consent to go from a rich country to a poor country?

[Hauldren Collider]

If these First Nations are anything like the tribal reservations in the US, the thing they hold most sacred is their government bacon. They aren't going to want to give that up.

[Flubber]

No. A majority has been formed in the west and Quebec (Mulroney, '84). With Quebec, at least there is a mathimatical possibility of forming a government without Ontario East of the lakehead (or thereabouts). Without Quebec, Ontario owns the federal government, lock, stock, and barrel.

I understand the electoral math but still think that considering how Ontario seems to split its votes among 3 parties and increased Population growth in the west that the west would be even more relevant in elections than ever before


AS for Atlantic Canada , iirc they have 32 seats and it's possible that Alberta would attain that in the next recalculation but their relative influence in terms of seats would already be relatively equal and in practical terms you might see Alberta speaking more often with a single voice while Atlantic Canada would remain its diverse confused self that again and again splits seats 12-10-10 or 18-8-6.

Unless we go back to a single party domination of ONtario, to me the west would have increased influence in a Quebec-less Canada.

Note that this was just to play out the scenario a little. I neither advocate nor expect Quebec separation

[Flubber]

But - in theory - they would control for themselves vast expanses of land.

It'd be safer for Canada to transfer federal obligations towards natives to Quebec rather than to open the can of worms of their own sovereign status.

Nope.... Safest is to characterize all native lands as federal lands that remain with Canada. First Nations would likely accept this characterization since relations with Quebec have been poorer than with Canada. If Canada and first nations say they stay then it would be up to Quebec to somehow argue the contrary.

Canada doesn't have to accept native sovereignty to keep first nations lands. They simply say they are federal lands... Which they are... Provincial legislation is inapplicable ( one of the few businesses where you can smoke inside in Calgary is the casino on the reserve as smoking legislation does not apply).

So I don't see the can of worms you do. I expext many first nations would be afraid of their status in an Indy Quebec and would embrace the security that Canada offered

[Kontiki]

I'd put the odds of a Quebec separation in the next 10 (or 20) years at less than 5%.

[Fake Boris]

Nope.... Safest is to characterize all native lands as federal lands that remain with Canada. First Nations would likely accept this characterization since relations with Quebec have been poorer than with Canada. If Canada and first nations say they stay then it would be up to Quebec to somehow argue the contrary.

Canada doesn't have to accept native sovereignty to keep first nations lands. They simply say they are federal lands... Which they are... Provincial legislation is inapplicable ( one of the few businesses where you can smoke inside in Calgary is the casino on the reserve as smoking legislation does not apply).

So I don't see the can of worms you do. I expext many first nations would be afraid of their status in an Indy Quebec and would embrace the security that Canada offered

Oh I get your point. You are talking about reserves. Reserves are federal, yup, but they're extremely small. There is a larger amount of "second category" land that is shared between Quebec and Indians.

Why would Indians want to live in enclaves rather than in a Quebec that offers them constitutional autonomy is beyond me.

In any case, if they *really* want to remain Canadian, we probably can't stop them. We lose 1% of our territory... no big deal.

One thing is sure though, if Canada decides to seize the entire north of Quebec on the pretense of native claims, then it is implicitly recognizing other claims. This is not going to happen. (This is what I was arguing against).

[Fake Boris]

Nope.... Safest is to characterize all native lands as federal lands that remain with Canada. First Nations would likely accept this characterization since relations with Quebec have been poorer than with Canada. If Canada and first nations say they stay then it would be up to Quebec to somehow argue the contrary.

BTW, natives are also tied to the provincial legislature. Like, they do vote in provincial elections and referendums.

[Fake Boris]

Why would they consent to go from a rich country to a poor country?

I see no evidence of Quebec withdrawing the actual level of subsidies.

[Flubber]

I'd put the odds of a Quebec separation in the next 10 (or 20) years at less than 5%.

I have no reason to dispute this figure

[regexcellent]

Why does anyone in Quebec want it to be separate, anyway? Is it about the fact that the french language is obsolete in North America?

[notyoueither]

It started for good reasons. The French felt in some ways to be second class citizens in their own home.

It continues as a useful political weapon to prise concessions out of the rest of Canada, and a provincial political issue in Quebec.

[notyoueither]

Of course we'd need their consent.

If Ottawa agitates the card of them not handing over their consent, a dangerous legal precedent will be created.

It wouldn't be Ottawa agitating them, it would be them and other natives across Canada agitating.

[notyoueither]

I understand the electoral math but still think that considering how Ontario seems to split its votes among 3 parties and increased Population growth in the west that the west would be even more relevant in elections than ever before


AS for Atlantic Canada , iirc they have 32 seats and it's possible that Alberta would attain that in the next recalculation but their relative influence in terms of seats would already be relatively equal and in practical terms you might see Alberta speaking more often with a single voice while Atlantic Canada would remain its diverse confused self that again and again splits seats 12-10-10 or 18-8-6.

Unless we go back to a single party domination of ONtario, to me the west would have increased influence in a Quebec-less Canada.

Note that this was just to play out the scenario a little. I neither advocate nor expect Quebec separation

2011 populations

33,476,688 Canada
7,903,001 Quebec
12,851,821 Ontario

If Quebec secedes Ontario's portion of the population goes from 38.x to 50.x percent.

The electoral math for smaller regions barely works now, it is FUBAR without Quebec.

[Hauldren Collider]

Seems to work okay for the UK where England dominates Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

[notyoueither]

England bends over and takes it from Scotland.

I don't think the people of Ontario would be willing to adopt a similar position.