Panetta: Israel could attack Iran as early as April

[Wezil]

I like to think the Ayatollahs aren't completely insane and that they do have long term preservation in mind.

They understandably want nukes and realise they will face opposition to this goal but (at this time) think they can pull it off.

[onodera]

I can't remember if we have sold Iran our S400 SAM complexes or not.

[Hauldren Collider]

You would but cheerleading in the face of evidence seems to be something you do when it comes to Israel. Osiraq was bombing one reactor much closer to Israel so one strike could get the job done and it was well within the aircraft's operational range plus if they got in trouble in just a short time additional fighters could be on the scene. That isn't true in eastern Iran where Israel would have to stripe their fighters down into flying gas cans with almost no payload just to get there and then when they get there you'd have to find a way to penetrate the Iranian equivalent of NORAD buried deep underground in a hard rock mountain. Can it be done? Sure, with enough tries and efforts but it's questionable if even the USAF can do it on a single strike or a few strikes short of using nuclear powered bunker busters which would be politically impossible to use. In short, a quick strike this is not and Israel can't sustain a massive long term air effort as it has too few planes, too few crews, and no air refueling power of its own. They can give them a slap but not much more.

To do more you'd need big daddy who isn't going to be doing **** in an election year especially if said **** would involve double the price of oil and tanking the economy.

Israel has spent the last several years focusing very hard on solving this problem. I would be very surprised if they didn't have a way to surmount it at this point.

By the way, Osiraq was a difficult operation--the planes flew back to base with essentially no fuel. However, keep in mind that for this operation Israel is probably getting support behind the scenes from the Saudis.

[Barnabas]

Israel can turn Iran into glass, I don't think Iran will ever use an atomic bomb so I don't care if they develop it, Iran is not worse than Pakistan.

[Asher]

I'd like to see Israel take on Iran without a sugardaddy.

[Wezil]

Iran has more retaliation options against the US than they do against Israel.

[Dinner]

Leon Panetta is one man that I pay attention to when he speaks. He's the only one that said "Go" about getting Bin Laden. The only one with no doubts about him being there and would say it.

Love him or hate him he did have the balls to put his name next to the plan to kill OBL when other officials were hedging or trying to cover their butts. You have to admire him for that.

[Thorn]

You'll really underestimate Iran, and their intentions, and abilities. I really can't talk more details but lets just say Russia may be missing a few cakes from the cake factory and say a clown gets ahold of them, he can throw it a much farther distance then you'd imagine, accuracy may be a bit off though, long as you don't drop the cake in water it can still be cooked, don't you just love if when the market has a sale?

[Dinner]

I can't remember if we have sold Iran our S400 SAM complexes or not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_%28SAM%29

Wiki says only Russia and Saudi Arabia currently field them.

[Dinner]

Iran has more retaliation options against the US than they do against Israel.

Yeah, that's the problem.

Israel stirs up a hornets nest, the hornets can't effectively strike back against Israel except via proxies like Hamas, who has limited offensive abilities, or allies like Syria, who's dictator is currently fighting for his life against his own people. Thus the hornets decide to go after a closer target like oil shipments in the Persia gulf, sending commandos or more weapons into Iraq or Afghanistan, etc... Heck, they could even try to destablize the newly democratic regimes in North Africa but stirring up the old anti-Israel thing.

Since it isn't all that likely an Israeli strike would set Iran back more then 1-3 years is it worth the effort knowing any attack by Israel would only increase support of the mullahs in Iran and cause problems for Israeli's great benefactor exactly when the US doesn't want those problems? (I.E. double oil prices during an election year where the central issue is the economy.)

[Wezil]

Or stir up trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[DinoDoc]

Or stir up trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan.

We're leaving those places. Haven't you heard?

[Wezil]

So you don't mind if they collapse politically?

[DinoDoc]

That would imply the existed as a coherent political entity in the first place. That's especially true in the case of Afghanistan.

[Wezil]

Don't underestimate their ability to cause grief there. Karzai will be gone shortly after the US troops so it isn't like he heads a stable government now.