Pick a FOREX cross... any FOREX cross... and go ALL IN 200:1
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Should I lever up?
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Originally posted by Aeson View PostI sense severe misunderstanding of why you're a *****. Long term? Who's talking long term here? DAY TRADING. Look it up
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I wouldn't lever up that high but I'm more of a mutual fund sort of guy instead of an active investor. What I really need to do is get a government job so I can use my 9 years of Army service so I can qualify for a government pension in just 11 years and retire by age 45. Then I can be part of the mounting public pension debt problem and laugh when KH whines that his taxes keep going up to pay my pension. Government jobs!Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.
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Originally posted by KrazyHorse View PostMy broker's margin rates are 3%, which seems too low to not take advantage of. I'm already 100% in equities; should I make it 200%?"I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger
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To start off this discussion, some data might be useful. Here are the total returns for big company stocks for a few years...
1929: -8.42%
1930: -24.90%
1931: -43.34%
1932: -8.19%
1937: -35.03%
2000: -9.10%
2001: -11.89%
2002: -22.10%
2008: -37.00%
I'm sure that there were more extreme times than these year-end numbers indicate.
I might not be against a modest amount of leveraging at these rates and asset prices for somebody in your situation. But the time for this really isn't now, I'm afraid. It was two years ago. I did a little bit of leveraging then.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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Dan, the relevant risk numbers come from comparison to NPV of lifetime earnings (say, post-tax), not to amount invested.
Nobody's provided me with any numerical tools yet (other than pchang's rule of thumb), so I'll attempt to build my own.
The savings represent ~0.4 * after-tax earnings of one year (for both myself and wife). Using that year as base 1, discounting at (say) 5% p.a., and inputting a reasonable future path of nominal income (2% inflation + projected real gains) over the next 20 years I get that they represent ~1.76% of my post-tax lifetime earned income (NPV).
There are some more analytics to be done of, course, but this is where we should start when thinking about this.Last edited by KrazyHorse; March 28, 2011, 20:52.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio Regum
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investing theory
is based upon the amount of time you have until retirement. If you want to retire earlier than 65, then you should start de-leveraging sooner. Rough proportionality should be good enough. In the mean time, margin up with the same asset allocation you have now!“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man
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KH: I was looking at the probability of being caught unable to make a margin call. Let's pretend the stock market tanks and you lose your job. Is that not a risk?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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Originally posted by DanS View PostKH: I was looking at the probability of being caught unable to make a margin call. Let's pretend the stock market tanks and you lose your job. Is that not a risk?"I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger
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Yes.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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It's just getting to the interesting part, Al.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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Originally posted by DanS View PostYes.
Remember that we are a two-income family whose expenses are less than either's fixed pay.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio Regum
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