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  • Lawrence Martin
    Harper’s triumph: a realignment of historic proportions
    Lawrence Martin | Columnist profile | E-mail
    From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
    Published Wednesday, May. 04, 2011 2:00AM EDT


    With his impressive election triumph Monday, Stephen Harper has completed a remarkable reconstruction of a Canadian political landscape that endured for more than a century. The realignment sees both old parties of the moderate middle, the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals, either eliminated or marginalized.

    In their place are the widely separated NDP on the left and Harper Conservatives on the right. It was Mr. Harper who led the Canadian Alliance’s merger/takeover of the old PCs almost eight years ago. It was Mr. Harper who worked to destroy the Liberal Party and who saw much of that happen in Monday’s election.

    The new dynamic leaves the centre, the area of the spectrum where the bulk of the population resides, formally unrepresented. Although the Conservatives and the New Democrats will tailor policy appeals to the middle, their ideological convictions increase the potential for polarization.

    Not long in power, the forging of the new dynamic sees this Prime Minister already meriting a special place in the pantheon of Canadian leaders. Such a place is owed to him for another reason as well. No other federal leader has started from so far back and from so far outside the middle of the spectrum and emerged such a winner. A decade ago, Stephen Harper was heading up a small right-wing group called the National Citizens Coalition. He took over a Canadian Alliance shoehorned in the West and nowhere in the polls and in competition with the old Tories. He led the unification drive and won the leadership of the new Conservatives. He built a superior organization, won two minorities and a now a majority, crushing the Grits in the process.

    The extraordinary strength of the party Mr. Harper has built was demonstrated in this campaign. It was, most everyone agreed, a fault-ridden campaign. It began with a contempt of Parliament ruling. It featured monotonous performances by the leader and little that was eye-catching in the platform. The bubble campaign faced one controversy over abuse of power after another. Mr. Harper’s personal ratings declined during it. And yet the Conservatives were still strong enough to roll to a majority government.

    The Harper machine is so powerful, woe to anyone who tries to take it on. Michael Ignatieff spoke yesterday of how the relentless onslaught of attack ads defined him. He said when people actually met him they found out he wasn’t that bad. In fact, he wasn’t. He was maturing as a leader and becoming an effective communicator. He had gained a feel for the country. But by the time the campaign began, the Harper team had him so shot full of holes he couldn’t recover. That he didn’t win his own seat Monday and cannot remain in Parliament is a loss for the party and the country.

    Mr. Harper has often been described as favouring a divide-and-conquer political strategy. The strategy appears to have worked and he could well interpret the election result as a vindication of that kind of politics. But as he showed in his well-crafted victory acceptance speech and at a press conference Tuesday, he might begin to relax. Now that he has a majority government, there is less need for iron-fisted control. Now that he has pushed the Liberal Party to the side, he has another reason to be less Nixonian. The Bloc, too, will not be there in large numbers to pester him.

    His only major opponent are the lefties of the NDP with their new and perhaps tenuous base in Quebec. That province is no longer crucial to the Prime Minister. Conservative leaders always thought a coalition between the West and Quebec nationalists was necessary to win a majority. In this election, Mr. Harper proved no such coalition is necessary. He proved that the West and Ontario can suffice.

    In many ways, the new political dynamic he has brought to Canada is a right fit for him. It is a Canada he may well be able dominate for a decade or more to come.
    (\__/)
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    • A few thoughts-

      I don't think there will be any serious rush to unite the left. I won't be surprised if some NDP/Libs, like Rae defect, though I still dislike floor crossing.

      Of course I'm extremely happy for the NDP. You have to remember to that not all of their rookie MPs are unilingual waitresses representing Francophone ridings. I think they have a former Cree Grand Chief - I recognized his name election night, a few ciivil servants, an ex Lib MP, an ex diplomat, etc. Really, they only need a couple of dozen good critics (and they have that in their vets) and as long as the rookies learn basic decorum there should be no problem.

      I'm extremely happy that May won her seat - Proportionally there should be at lest a dozen Greens. I also think it would have been nice if the news of 'Canada's biggest pipeline leak in 30 years' which was 'reported' Friday had been released before the election, rather than the day after.

      I would not be surprised if, over the next 4 years, some centralist Cons get tired of Harper's right wing social agenda and some Reformist Cons also become upset that he isn't extreme enough - Harper can no longer blame the opposition for his government's shortcomings. I won't be surprised if the right starts to frey around the edges over the next few years. It will be interesting to see what the Wild Rose party does provincially in Alberta, and how that spins federally.

      Anyway, this will mean less election work for me in the next 3 1/2 years - unless the Cons do what they did with their last majority - that's where the Bloc came from!

      -your Uncle Sparky

      ps - I had previously refered to Winnipeg South Centre votes to prove a point.
      2008 election - the NDP recorded a little ove 4,500 votes in the riding. The Lib beat the Con by about 2,000 votes.
      2011 election - the NDP recorded a little over 9,100 voted in the rideng. The Con won by under 1,000 votes.
      ...and btw, this election, there was a 70.5% turn out in Wpg SC. I based my voter turn out observation on that result.
      Last edited by Uncle Sparky; May 4, 2011, 15:58.
      There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

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      • President Obanana
        anti steam and proud of it

        CDO ....its OCD in alpha order like it should be

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        • Harper doesn't have a right wing social agenda other than his policies on crime. Simply repeating the same myth over and over does not make it so.
          (\__/)
          (='.'=)
          (")_(") This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your signature to help him gain world domination.

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          • I'll call bullshirt on that. Harper will stick to his word. He will not have votes on any 'rights' issues. However, he will continue to agrressively starve 'lefty' groups and causes that don't fit his philosophy. To date, he has defunded most Women's Rights groups, removed some (not all yet) funding to pro LesBiGay groups, and international groups that advocate reproductive rights for women. He has already been doing this for five years!!! So, you're saying he doesn't have an agenda - Bull Shirt!!!

            He's just being duplicitous about it - eg. Harper will continue to make statements like "I will not introduce legislation on abortion", but will cut funding through order in council to make abortion virtually unobtainable.
            There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Uncle Sparky View Post
              I'll call bullshirt on that. Harper will stick to his word. He will not have votes on any 'rights' issues. However, he will continue to agrressively starve 'lefty' groups and causes that don't fit his philosophy. To date, he has defunded most Women's Rights groups, removed some (not all yet) funding to pro LesBiGay groups, and international groups that advocate reproductive rights for women. He has already been doing this for five years!!! So, you're saying he doesn't have an agenda - Bull Shirt!!!
              His agenda is as a fiscal conservative.

              Even I don't think the government should be funding pro-LGBT or women's rights groups.
              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Asher View Post
                His agenda is as a fiscal conservative.

                Even I don't think the government should be funding pro-LGBT or women's rights groups.
                ...or churches? I don't think the government should subsidize them, but they do!

                Goodbye Human Rights Commission. Goodbye teen help lines. Hello alternate Health Care delivery models. Hello Church based counseling... and if any watchdog disagrees with Harper - goodbye.
                There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Uncle Sparky View Post
                  ...or churches? I don't think the government should subsidize them, but they do!

                  Goodbye Human Rights Commission. Goodbye teen help lines. Hello alternate Health Care delivery models. Hello Church based counseling... and if any watchdog disagrees with Harper - goodbye.
                  All of the teen help lines I know of (for gay teens) are not government funded. I know this because I donate to a couple of them annually and they are forthright with their funding sources.

                  I would like to see Harper kill off subsidization for Cult-like behaviour, but we all know that won't happen for many years.

                  I think people need to stop looking to the government to subsidize things they want because they are convenient. That goes for religion, it goes for "the arts", etc.

                  The government should not be in the business of promoting a social agenda, nor should it be in the business of funding bands such as Holy ****. They should provide my health care, provide infrastructure, ensure we live in a safe place, etc.
                  "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                  Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                  Comment


                  • The most annoying ****ing people in the world are "artists" who keep spamming my facebook wall telling people to vote NDP because HARPER WILL KILL ARTS FUNDING! CULTURE WILL DIE!!!!

                    News ****ing flash: The culture people care about, we vote with our wallets. If your art can't support itself, consider making it a hobby and not a career. Don't rely on me paying for your paycheque so you can be a ****ing god-awful actor at the Edmonton ****ing Fringe Festival.
                    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Uncle Sparky View Post
                      I'll call bullshirt on that. Harper will stick to his word. He will not have votes on any 'rights' issues. However, he will continue to agrressively starve 'lefty' groups and causes that don't fit his philosophy. To date, he has defunded most Women's Rights groups, removed some (not all yet) funding to pro LesBiGay groups, and international groups that advocate reproductive rights for women. He has already been doing this for five years!!! So, you're saying he doesn't have an agenda - Bull Shirt!!!

                      He's just being duplicitous about it - eg. Harper will continue to make statements like "I will not introduce legislation on abortion", but will cut funding through order in council to make abortion virtually unobtainable.

                      I think the onus is on you to show some proof that Harper would do anything about abortion in Canada through any sort of back door. The federal government does not supervise the delivery of medical services, the provinces do. Furthermore, Harper has made it clear that the party should take no stance on matters of conscience. Orders in council would contradict the policy he himself has urged the party to take, and I'm not even sure they would be legal. I think your shirt is made of whole cloth.

                      The Conservatives are for smaller government, and their reluctance to fund every and any cause that comes looking for cash is consistent with fiscal conservatism. Has the Conservative government signalled any desire to erect barriers to these groups continuing to do what they do through private fundraising?
                      (\__/)
                      (='.'=)
                      (")_(") This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your signature to help him gain world domination.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Asher View Post
                        I would like to see Harper kill off subsidization for Cult-like behaviour, but we all know that won't happen for many years.

                        I don't think it will ever happen.

                        I'm thinking it would be unconstitutional to start picking and choosing nonprofit status based on religion.

                        The organisations Uncle Sparky is concerned about funding for are free to use the tax code to help fund themselves as nonprofits as well.
                        (\__/)
                        (='.'=)
                        (")_(") This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your signature to help him gain world domination.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Uncle Sparky View Post
                          ...or churches? I don't think the government should subsidize them, but they do!

                          Goodbye Human Rights Commission. Goodbye teen help lines. Hello alternate Health Care delivery models. Hello Church based counseling... and if any watchdog disagrees with Harper - goodbye.

                          You're being hysterical.
                          (\__/)
                          (='.'=)
                          (")_(") This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your signature to help him gain world domination.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Asher View Post
                            The most annoying ****ing people in the world are "artists" who keep spamming my facebook wall telling people to vote NDP because HARPER WILL KILL ARTS FUNDING! CULTURE WILL DIE!!!!

                            News ****ing flash: The culture people care about, we vote with our wallets. If your art can't support itself, consider making it a hobby and not a career. Don't rely on me paying for your paycheque so you can be a ****ing god-awful actor at the Edmonton ****ing Fringe Festival.
                            So, how do you really feel about this?

                            And you saw my Fringe show! That's nice. And the Feds do not F***** subsidize F**** Fringe Festivals.
                            How many performance artists does it take to change a lightbulb? I don't know- I left after 3 hours.

                            But back to the point... I wouldn't be surprised if the new 'teen help line' counsellors will encourage teens to "seek Jesus and stop being abominations". Ash, have you ever gone to a Con convention and made a pro gay floor speach - A friend of mine did that a few years back - about 6 hours before buying a Lib membership.

                            Oh well, enough of this. We'll see whose right. Catch you in 4 years.
                            There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Uncle Sparky View Post
                              So, how do you really feel about this?

                              And you saw my Fringe show! That's nice. And the Feds do not F***** subsidize F**** Fringe Festivals.
                              I'm referring to another friend of mine who is an aspiring actor in Edmonton, who constantly whines about how the government isn't giving him enough money.

                              But back to the point... I wouldn't be surprised if the new 'teen help line' counsellors will encourage teens to "seek Jesus and stop being abominations". Ash, have you ever gone to a Con convention and made a pro gay floor speach - A friend of mine did that a few years back - about 6 hours before buying a Lib membership.
                              I thought your whole point was the government wouldn't have help lines? Now they operate them with a Christian agenda?
                              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Asher View Post
                                I'm referring to another friend of mine who is an aspiring actor in Edmonton, who constantly whines about how the government isn't giving him enough money.
                                As an actor who lived in Alberta in the 90s, I can confirm that Klein, in his last term, changed the tax credit structure in Alberta to make TV & film production uncompetitive compared to other provinces. That's one of the reasons I moved. The work dried up.

                                Originally posted by Asher View Post
                                I thought your whole point was the government wouldn't have help lines? Now they operate them with a Christian agenda?
                                No, but under Bush (), many social services were transfered to community based (read : faith based) groups. How do you think they would council a gay teen? Harper has already hinted that he'd like to see more faith based endeavors - even last week while meeting with a group of orthodox christians in Ontario. The press barely mentioned it.
                                There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

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