CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[Asher]

I don't think you've talked to anyone outside of Alberta, where the Cons will win all but 2 seats.

Until recently I've been living in Ontario, and have many friends in BC/Ontario...I also follow polls.

[Uncle Sparky]

Then you've noticed the Cons falling in the polls. They are falling everywhere and will continue to fall for the next 12 days. The Cons will pick up one seat in Newfoundland (Avilon), could pick up to a dozen in Ontario (though this is looking less likely every day) and, if they are lucky, break even in BC. They will lose Quebec (might keep up to 2 seats). They will lose seats in NS & NB, MB & SK and one in Edmonton... oh, & Bev Oda will lose. If the Cons are very lucky, they might end up with razor thin minority - either way Harper is toast.

[Asher]

Then you've noticed the Cons falling in the polls.

The polls are clearly level.

[KrazyHorse]

If the Cons are very lucky, they might end up with razor thin minority

[notyoueither]

Then you've noticed the Cons falling in the polls. They are falling everywhere and will continue to fall for the next 12 days. The Cons will pick up one seat in Newfoundland (Avilon), could pick up to a dozen in Ontario (though this is looking less likely every day) and, if they are lucky, break even in BC. They will lose Quebec (might keep up to 2 seats). They will lose seats in NS & NB, MB & SK and one in Edmonton... oh, & Bev Oda will lose. If the Cons are very lucky, they might end up with razor thin minority - either way Harper is toast.

Is this your own summary, or someone elses?

This would be the first I've heard of a loss in Edmonton and slipping everywhere else.

I think the implications in Quebec are very new and people are having a difficult time predicting riding results because it is new territory and existing models are just that, they are models of what has gone before given no fundamental change. Has any region, ever, in this country ever had a four way race?

[Asher]

Wow. Iggy is as good as gone.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/poll-surging-ndp-moves-into-tie-with-liberals/article1995725/

Poll: Surging NDP moves into tie with Liberals

The surging NDP are now in a statistical tie with the Liberals as they battle to block Stephen Harper’s Conservatives from securing a coveted majority, according to the latest Nanos Research numbers.

With slightly more than a week to go before the May 2 election, the Conservatives are still holding down a 12 percentage point lead nationally at 37.8 per cent support, ahead of the Liberals at 26.1 per cent and the NDP at 23.7 per cent, according to overnight polling data Thursday.

“At this particular level, it’s much more difficult for the Conservatives to form a majority government,” pollster Nik Nanos told The Globe Friday.

Conservative support is down slightly from Wednesday when it stood at 39 per cent -- almost exactly where it stood at the opening of the campaign.

“It’s going to take a few more days to see what happens,” he said.

It’s still unclear whether Conservative support is weakening. But Mr. Nanos pointed out that the Conservatives must be careful to contain fallout from reports about where Mr. Harper and his MPs stand on abortion, as well as allegations of political interference at the Port of Montreal.

“The Conservatives have to watch out on issues such as ethics, accountability and abortion in the last few days of the campaign,” Mr. Nanos explained. “It’s going to be very important for the Conservatives to manage that.”

The Conservatives lead in every region of the country, except Quebec. The party is at 36.5 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 42.6 per cent in Ontario, 47.6 per cent in the Prairies and 47.8 per cent in B.C.

Mr. Nanos pointed out that health care has emerged as the top issue for voters, displacing the economy and jobs -- a trend that favours the NDP and undermines the Conservative’s greatest strength.

The big story continues to the surprisingly strong showing of Jack Layton’s NDP, which is now in a statistical tie with the Liberals for second in Atlantic Canada (31.2 per cent for the NDP vs. 32.6 per cent for the Liberals), and with the Bloc Quebecois for the lead in Quebec (26.3 per cent for the NDP vs. 31.8 per cent for the Bloc).

The margin of error in the poll is 3.1 per cent nationally, and higher for regional numbers.

The NDP is doing a good job of playing up the Jack Layton “brand,” capitalizing on his strong showing in the English and French-language debates earlier this month.

According to results of the poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, more than half of voters continue to rank party platform as their top deciding factor. That far outstrips those whose decision is based on the party leader (21.2 per cent), local candidate (14.8 per cent) or traditional support for a particular party (8.8 per cent).

The results are based on a random, national telephone sample of 995 decided Canadians conducted between April 19-21. The margin of error is plus-minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

[Asher]

dp

[notyoueither]

I wonder what it is that did it to him and the Liberals?

Was it the shrieking? That really annoyed me, but I am not a centre-left voter from Central Canada or BC.

The coalition/arrangement to topple Harper being admitted is a bit new, and that would tend to drive centrist voters to the Conservatives, no?

I'm thinking it started with Layton's comment in the English debate re attendance, and snowballed due to poor decisions from there. Up to the debates, Ignatieff seemed to be doing really well.

[Uncle Sparky]

Iggy isn't that bad & most of his party do like him as leader, despite the Cons best efforts to terrorize people. He is bringing out the traditional Lib vote. However, left of centre swing voters are swinging to Layton. By year end, Layton will be the only one of the current batch leading their party.
As for my theory on what will happen election day, it is based on talking to friends across Canada who are working on the various campaigns or for Elections Canada.
Today at the Advanced Polls, for example, a very large turn out occured at many urban swing ridings, with mostly identified traditional NDP & Lib seniors voting.
Case in point - In Fredericton, the Libs stayed home last election and the Con won by about 5,000 votes. The total voter turn out in Fredericton was down about 6,000 from the prior election. Today for most f the day there were 1/2 hour waits at most advanced polls
One Winnipeg voting place in a current Con seat that has a long Lib history had a 2 hour wait for much of the day. Many identified Lib voters were voting.

So, I stand by my prediction that Mr. Harper will not get what he wants and will exit with the grace and class most Canadians would expect of him, but the majority of Canadians will win.

[Asher]

As for my theory on what will happen election day, it is based on talking to friends across Canada who are working on the various campaigns or for Elections Canada.

This certainly explains your delusions.

[Uncle Sparky]

And yes, it does include Cons in NB, ON, MB, SK, AB & BC so I do deal with some delusional types.

[notyoueither]

Well, here's mine to add to your poll.

Most likely result with a little over a week to go.

Harper narrowly misses majority. ~145-150 seats. The Liberals and BQ lose a few and the NDP gain quite a few. Say Liberals 70, BQ 40, NDP 45-55ish.

Constitutionally, the three could unseat the Conservatives as government. Politically, no chance. If things play out as they are looking, the Liberals are going to want a couple of years to reflect and rebuild. They are in very dangerous territory as they are close to being caught between the left and right and being crushed. It is conceivable that Martin was the last Liberal PM the country sees for a very long time if they play this poorly.

After losing seats, would the Liberals really want to go into the next campaign and have the Conservatives make the entire campaign about the fact that Ignatieff never won any national contest (leadership or election) and yet he weasled his way into the PMO? That election would have Mulroney-Turner written all over it.

Constitutionally, Ignatieff is correct. Politically, he's on a path to wipe out the Liberal Party of Canada and I don't think his own MPs and party will allow him to do it. Look for 10+ floor crossings if he so much as breaths in the GGs direction.

[KrazyHorse]

Most likely result with a little over a week to go.

Harper narrowly misses majority. ~145-150 seats.

This. Polling and the markets agree.

[KrazyHorse]

I would put it on the low end of that range. Let's say 145 as my prediction (obviously still significant uncertainty).

[notyoueither]

I'd say it is really difficult to predict, actually. I am giving my most likely to happen based on what has gone before. Two major things are different, and the result will depend on how they play out.

The largest factor isn't the NDP in Quebec. The largest uncertainty is the Conservative push into urban and suburban Toronto, Vancouver and a few other places. Significant gains for the Conservatives could be masked in the larger polls due to their strategy of boring and steady nationally, and focusing on ~30 ridings.

The other factor is the NDP in Quebec canibalising the left from the BQ. I would think that a signifiacant drop in BQ support will make Conservative seats safer and open up some possible gains. Also, the splits in BC could work to the Conservative's favour.