CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[Asher]

I can see the situation where Layton would be PM but the entire cabinet Liberal. Iggy just doesn't poll high enough in the leadership vote to make it palatable.

[Wezil]

It is strange days.


What happens if the NDP finish second and Harper cannot get past the Throne Speech and budget?

That would be interesting to be sure.

[Wezil]

I can see the situation where Layton would be PM but the entire cabinet Liberal. Iggy just doesn't poll high enough in the leadership vote to make it palatable.

I agree Iggy would have to go but I can't see a formal coalition (Cabinet seats).

[notyoueither]

If the NDP does well enough I can't see the Liberals wanting to go back to the polls any time soon. Meanwhile, the NDP may not be too shy about a do over at the polls.

Ignatieff is not the only one making a decision about coalition or no. He may be forced to accept if the NDP gain too much.

[Wezil]

No, he cannot be forced as he always has the option of resigning as leader. I'm sure he would resign first.

edit - I'm not saying a coalition won't happen (though I find it unlikely), I'm saying Iggy won't be a part of it.

[Uncle Sparky]

Many of you are still missing a simple point - Avoid giving the Cons enough seats to be in a position to give a throne speech and all of these scenarios become moot. Not only that, but the Cons can get rid of Harper who personally in the last couple of elections has prevented a Con majority.

How stupid are the Cons or are they just cowed by the PM's office? They kept Harper even after he was unable to get a majority against Dion. A real drubbing would be the best thing for the Cons. A real defeat will give them the impetus to elect a leader who can play well with others and isn't quite so creepy.

[notyoueither]

No, he cannot be forced as he always has the option of resigning as leader. I'm sure he would resign first.

edit - I'm not saying a coalition won't happen (though I find it unlikely), I'm saying Iggy won't be a part of it.

Ignatieff not being part of it is one of the reasons the Liberals wil not be wanting another election very soon.

However, that also speaks to Harper being able to continue governing if he wins a strong enough minority.

This is looking like a pooh baguette for the Liberals any way you slice it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing for them or the country in the long run.

[Wezil]

Many of you are still missing a simple point - Avoid giving the Cons enough seats to be in a position to give a throne speech and all of these scenarios become moot.

That's easier said than done when two parties insist on fighting over the left of the spectrum.

[Wezil]

And the Liberals are certainly vulnerable. They’re politically adrift, with a right-leaning leader trying to drag his party to the left in a calculated move to steal enough votes from the NDP to beat the Conservatives (or at least avoid electoral oblivion). But it’s just not credible. While in opposition, the Liberals enabled the Tories for years, and Ignatieff’s own hawkish statements from the past can’t be made to go away. Canadian voters instinctively detect the schizophrenic nature of the current Liberal plan. Why would a left-leaning Canadian vote for a right-wing Liberal leader when he can just vote for the Dippers?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/21/matt-gurney-a-strong-ndp-is-bad-for-the-liberals-but-might-be-good-for-canada/

The Libs needed to take seats from the Conservatives, not NDP.

[notyoueither]

Many of you are still missing a simple point - Avoid giving the Cons enough seats to be in a position to give a throne speech and all of these scenarios become moot. Not only that, but the Cons can get rid of Harper who personally in the last couple of elections has prevented a Con majority.

How stupid are the Cons or are they just cowed by the PM's office? They kept Harper even after he was unable to get a majority against Dion. A real drubbing would be the best thing for the Cons. A real defeat will give them the impetus to elect a leader who can play well with others and isn't quite so creepy.

I don't think many Conservatives share your feelings about Harper.

I think many feel that his style has been required to win campaigns and in Parliament.

I do agree though that his shelf life will be up once this confused electoral situation is cleared up, unless it is he who wins (gets the majority).

[Wezil]

Don't you get the feeling something is going to break one way or another for someone in the next week to ten days? The polls have been fairly steady for so long now is almost like a quiet before the storm.

[notyoueither]

I think the same way. The actual results will differ greatly from the results we expected up to now. The greatest likelihood though, is that we see the Liberals crater. That will result in either a Conservative majority, or an NDP second place (or close) finish and a likely continuation of Harper in minority.

[Uncle Sparky]

I don't think there is the slightest chance of Harper winning. Most people are comming to the realization that we have had a Con government for 7 years albeit a minority Con government that he tried to run as a majority. Harper keeps calling for a the only reasonable change being another Con government. This is a contradiction.

Another point, youth are being mobilized and generally vote left of centre. Combined with the decline of the Bloc - a protest party that hasn't been protesting too much lately - and the rise of the NDP, Quebec will turf all but a couple of Cons and realign with the federal left party.

[Asher]

I don't think there is the slightest chance of Harper winning.

I don't think you're that in touch with the public.

[Uncle Sparky]

I don't think you're that in touch with the public.

I don't think you've talked to anyone outside of Alberta, where the Cons will win all but 2 seats.