CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

Sorry. Kuci moment.

[Asher]

Let's look at this realistically:

1) It's not feasible for the ISPs to block facebook/twitter on an IP level, they'd have to use DNS filtering. DNS are cached locally for 24-48 hours. A single DNS change can take 72 hours to fully propagate. They'd have to block facebook/twitter for days at a time, surrounding an election. That's political suicide. Further, it's trivial to get around once you know the IPs or people set up DNS Masks and relays, or use things like the TOR anonymous network.

2) It is a politically untenable concept. If it's even attempted once, you can bet your ass Canadians would be more than pissed and laws would be changed pronto

[notyoueither]

So, we've decided. Twitter needs to shut down, world wide, for 30 minuntes.

[notyoueither]

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/20/37-days-they-will-make-constitutional-scholars-of-us-yet/

Scott Stinson Apr 20, 2011 – 6:46 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 20, 2011 6:48 PM ET

Sean Kilpatrick/Reuters

Stephen Harper listens to Michael Ignatieff during the French-language leader's debate in Ottawa April 13, 2011

They will make constitutional scholars of us yet.

Try as the general public might to avoid questions about parliamentary procedure and the rules governing the House of Commons, there’s a good chance that in two weeks’ time our federal leaders will again force us to bone up on things like the Governor-General’s reserve powers of the Crown.

Constitutional Crisis II: Revenge of the Eggheads.

Here’s where we are at the moment: the polls suggest a Conservative minority government is by far the most likely outcome on May 2. Three weeks of campaigning, including debates, platform launches, and rally after rally, have produced little evidence that many voters have changed their minds. They might yet in the final 11 days of the campaign, but it’s doubtful enough of them will do so to produce either a Conservative majority or a Liberal minority.

And so, on May 3, the real fun would begin.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper insists that the three opposition leaders would — if they haven’t already, the rascals — scheme to form a loose arrangement that would vote against his budget and seek to take over the government with Governor-General David Johnston’s blessing. He used to call this a reckless coalition; now he’s dropped that term. “If they have a minority parliament, they will, in some manner, try and get together and form a government,” Mr. Harper told reporters Wednesday.

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff says there is no such plan, and that he would only consider a deal with other parties if asked by the Governor-General after the Conservatives had failed to gain the confidence of the House.

The curious thing about this back-and-forth is that it overlooks the fact that we have had three successive minority governments in Canada that have lasted various lengths without the G-G turning the House over to the also-rans. When a matter of confidence arises, the governing party finds a backer from among the opposition parties, and it remains standing. In a post-vote scenario in May, this would simply mean the party with the most seats (assume it’s the Tories) would need to present a budget that wins the favour of one of the other parties. Crisis averted.

Except, Mr. Harper doesn’t sound too inclined to play nice in the budgetary sandbox. Asked on Tuesday if he would work with the other parties, Mr. Harper responded: “I don’t accept the question.” It’s moot, he meant, because the other parties don’t want to work with him. They want to take over themselves, he reiterated.

Mr. Ignatieff, told of his opponent’s remarks, showed again that he has a keen grasp of parliamentary procedure. “What does he think he is — the king here?” Mr. Ignatieff said on Wednesday. “Of course he has to put water in his wine. We all have to put water in our wine, provided you don’t sacrifice basic fiscal responsibility of the country, provided you don’t sacrifice basic principles.” He thinks the Tories would have to buckle on the budget in order to win support, in other words.

That leaves us with a truly puzzling scenario in which the Liberal leader is making a case for a Conservative minority government backed by the Liberals, while the Conservative leader is all but swearing off his chances of leading a government that is not a majority. It’s all posturing until the seat counts are known, but Mr. Harper must realize that by repeatedly insisting that voters are choosing either a Conservative majority or the other guys, this leaves open the possibility that they will pick the other guys.

My guess is that his game all along has been to force Mr. Ignatieff to disavow a coalition. Even though Mr. Ignatieff has never said he would refuse to take power, absent a vote, even if he lost an election, most Canadians would believe he had gamed the system somehow. That’s not how the Westminster system is supposed to work, but judging entirely by an unscientific assessment of callers to talk radio and people with whom I was playing poker the other night and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, I suspect Mr. Harper is counting on public outrage over a possible takeover to preclude Mr. Ignatieff from trying it.

It’s setting up what could be a remarkable showdown between two men who don’t like each other very much. Only the government would hang in the balance.

sstinson@nationalpost.com
National Post

This all discounts one other factor.

I believe that a leader is asked if he can gain the confidence of the House. If the answer is no, then a sitting PM should resign. There should be no Conservative Throne Speech, or any other, until some wrangling is done and one leader can tell the GG that he can win in Parliament.

I'm not sure that is how it will work, but that is how it should.

[Wezil]

The CBC is reporting rumours of a CROP poll showing the NDP ahead of the Bloq in Quebec. The poll is due to be released tomorrow.

@Wezil. Are you prepared to vote for PM Jack Layton?

Oh please. You need to get over this fantasy about the NDP.

[Wezil]

At another any rate, the reasonable solution to the problem would be to shut the polls at the same moment from coast to coast. People in the East would need some allowance for earlier closing. Something like a national stat holiday. Or elections on Sundays.

There's your answer (if you need one).

[Fake Boris]

The CBC is reporting rumours of a CROP poll showing the NDP ahead of the Bloq in Quebec. The poll is due to be released tomorrow.

@Wezil. Are you prepared to vote for PM Jack Layton?

This is a bull**** online poll.

[Wezil]

You just can't deal with separatists but apparently terrorist sympathizers are okay. Yeah Conservatives.

Conservative cabinet minister Peter Kent is taking his own party to task for allowing a man who hosted a television tribute to the terrorist Tamil Tigers to be a candidate in the May 2 election.

“This program … is unacceptable and it flies in the face of the fact that our government listed the Tamil Tigers as a terrorist organization,” Mr. Kent told The Globe and Mail on Thursday, after he viewed on YouTube the “Heroes Day” special that Gavan Paranchothy hosted on a Tamil station.

“It is certainly a reflection on the party’s lack of due diligence,” said Mr. Kent, a former foreign correspondent and current environment minister. “Someone’s obviously dropped the ball.”

Mr. Kent was responding to questions from The Globe after he endorsed Mr. Paranchothy in a campaign letter this week. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney endorsed the candidate in the same letter, despite Globe reports a week ago about the program, which aired last November and has been on the Internet ever since.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/minister-revokes-support-for-tory-candidate-who-praised-terrorists/article1994736/

[Wezil]

This is a bull**** online poll.

I presume you are speaking of the Ekos numbers? CROP has come to an almost identical result...

I don't think it will translate at the polls. I've been around long enough to have seen high NDP campaign numbers in the past only to see them fall flat on election day. On the other side, I remember Bob Rae in Ontario.

[notyoueither]

Oh please. You need to get over this fantasy about the NDP.

You should lighten up.

BTW, which fantasy is that? The one where Ignatieff is running an incompetent campaign and for once, maybe, the NDP will benefit from being the best option on the left for the left?

[Wezil]

I am lightened up. I should have used the

The fantasy that the national NDP is ready for anything more than rump status. A good leader can help their fortunes but until their policies change they won't be taken seriously.

[Wezil]

I'll answer your question though (as improbable as I find the suggestion).

I'd take a Layton minority over another Harper government for two reasons:

1) It would mean the end of Harper
2) It would ensure we never elect large numbers of NDP again

[Asher]

3) It would **** Alberta

[notyoueither]

It is strange days. The combination of a known and trusted Jack with an incompetent, bumbling Ignatieff could have serious impacts in several regions.

Throw in the fatigued Bloc and Duceppe, and...

What happens if the NDP finish second and Harper cannot get past the Throne Speech and budget?

[Wezil]

3) It would **** Alberta

That's not a plus for me.