CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[Asher]

Thus the hope.

I'd ideally want to see another Tory minority right now. But I still won't be voting either way.

[Wezil]

If not for the damage it would do, it would almost be worth it to see Harper screw you on an issue you care about just to see your reaction.

[Asher]

I would be pissed and forced to vote Liberal to undo it.

I think he's a populist more than a social conservative, and the people have spoken.

[Wezil]

It is interesting how this topic arises whenever "Conservative" and "majority" are mentioned in the same sentence. You may be right about Harper (populist) but the dynamics change in a majority.

After seeing how he governs with a minority there is no way I would ever trust him with the keys to a majority.

[notyoueither]

I expect a private members bill and a free vote for Conservative MPs. Nothing will change because many Conservatives would be against the bill.

[Wezil]

This doesn't make any ****ing sense. Subsidizing Quebec = political suicide.

The calculation has been changing with time.

It used to be that even people not thrilled with the payoffs would grudgingly concede it may be necessary to maintain national unity. Unfortunately after several decades of appeasement it has become painfully obvious that it doesn't foster national unity, but rather accomplishes the opposite, it convinces Quebec the extortion game is the best way to participate in Canada. As such, it is much less palatable to federal politicians to continue playing the game.

The Quebec City arena funding issue is a good example. Harper would love to give the money but the payoff in Quebec will be negligible (Quebec will still elect BQ) and the cost outside Quebec considerable. Twenty years ago the math would have worked.

[Wezil]

I expect a private members bill and a free vote for Conservative MPs. Nothing will change because many Conservatives would be against the bill.

On abortion and gay marriage. Probably.

The field is much wider than that. We saw a good example of ideology over policy re the census issue.

[Wezil]

The abortion issue has come up with regard to funding of NGO's (the Conservative "Maternal Health Plan" iirc). Ideology trumped there as well.

[Wezil]

I don't think you guys are going to see much of Harper in the next 30 days. He's been around these parts so often I'm considering renting him the spare bedroom.

He was in London last night. Good crowds inside (favourable) and outside (hostile).

[Asher]

You can keep him.

The best thing about living in Calgary is we sequester the provincial politicians up in Edmonton and the federal ones out in Ottawa.

[Wezil]

You don't live in a "target riding".

[Wezil]

I once asked a Liberal candidate (Belleville) how much $$ he'd be willing to slip me in a brown envelope over lunch.

He was not amused.

[notyoueither]

On abortion and gay marriage. Probably.

I'm a bit more optimistic.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/samesexrights/timeline_canada.html

Dec. 7, 2006:

A motion tabled by the ruling Conservatives to reopen the same-sex marriage debate is defeated in the House of Commons by a vote of 175-123. Twelve Tories — including five cabinet ministers — broke from party lines and voted against the motion, while 13 Liberals supported the motion.

One in ten Conservatives were against the motion. That proportion will only increase with more MPs from urban ridings and the East.

The field is much wider than that. We saw a good example of ideology over policy re the census issue.

Yeah, ideology that Canadians should not face punishment for refusing to answer intrusive questions is such a danger to the Dominion...

[Asher]

I once asked a Liberal candidate (Belleville) how much $$ he'd be willing to slip me in a brown envelope over lunch.

He was not amused.

He probably only entertains serious offers.

[Wezil]

Yeah, ideology that Canadians should not face punishment for refusing to answer intrusive questions is such a danger to the Dominion...

So of course the only logical solution is to cancel the long form census altogether. Removing the penalties would be too tough.

I'm stunned you don't think that was ideology driven.