CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

Except Iggy beat Rae. The left of the party lost that showdown.

But the NDP have been eating into Liberal support.

[Wezil]

Fighting over the left will not beat the Conservatives.

[Wezil]

So we don't leave the NDP out (we will of course forget about the BQ)...

Does anyone else find it amusing listening to Layton talk as if he has a chance of winning? Hell would freeze over before he won a national vote.

[notyoueither]

The Liberals are not in a good spot. They are somewhat in the position the Conservatives were in with Reform on the right and the Liberals between them and the middle.

I'm seeing signs of long term planning on the part of both the Conservatives and the Liberals.

The Conservatives are investing everything in Harper, going back to the 'Harper Government' communication strategy. They've also overcome (or dropped) the aversion to asking for a majority. It's like 'this is it, Steve, go win or go away and do us the favour of taking the baggage with you if you have to leave.'

The evolution of the party and the likelihood that the next leader would come from Ontario supports this view.

The Liberals seem to be tilting at windmills. So if the answer is to launch a campaign they have feint hopes of winning, what is the question? Maybe it is 'how can we stop the momentum that Jack has built up and get our core voters back?' Taking advantage of Layton's health slowing him down and picking him off on policy seem to suggest that is the first part of their strategy. Remains to be seen if they can do that and then turn to contest the centre with the Conservatives in the same election.

[Wezil]

The Liberals are not in a good spot. They are somewhat in the position the Conservatives were in with Reform on the right and the Liberals between them and the middle.

Granted, but they have to compete for the centre if they want to form government (as Harper is discovering). The extremes will only take you so far. The Liberals have always had the NDP to the left but still managed majorities.

The Conservatives are investing everything in Harper, going back to the 'Harper Government' communication strategy. They've also overcome (or dropped) the aversion to asking for a majority. It's like 'this is it, Steve, go win or go away and do us the favour of taking the baggage with you if you have to leave.'

I can agree with this as well. This is probably his last kick at a majority and another minority will not do. He won't be shoved but he will be moved if he fails again. It doesn't get any easier than it did in the last campaign. Beating Dion was like the town bully taking on the asthmatic kid down the street. It should have been decisive.

The evolution of the party and the likelihood that the next leader would come from Ontario supports this view.

I survived those knuckleheads once on the provincial scene. They "did a Rae" and got out of town before the mobs arrived. If the C-'s pick a leader from Ontario they better not make it a Harris refugee as these creeps have Rae type baggage in this province.

The Liberals seem to be tilting at windmills. So if the answer is to launch a campaign they have feint hopes of winning, what is the question? Maybe it is 'how can we stop the momentum that Jack has built up and get our core voters back?' Taking advantage of Layton's health slowing him down and picking him off on policy seem to suggest that is the first part of their strategy. Remains to be seen if they can do that and then turn to contest the centre with the Conservatives in the same election.

I think your earlier hunch is probably right - the party wants results from Iggy or his resignation and (correctly) waiting another year won't really change things. We've had over a year to see him in the news so now it's time to run the campaign. I get the feeling the move left idea is recent (it certainly wasn't reflected in policy the last year or two) and intended as a cynical election ploy that probably won't work.

[notyoueither]

I also do not think that the NDP in government is that far-fetched anymore.

The NDP are the second party of the West (from Northern Ontario to the Pacific). They are polling better than the Liberals in Quebec. They are close, closer than they've ever been.

I also recall people from Quebec who are not stupid exclaiming that the Conservatives are a dead brand in Quebec and would never rise again.

Things change, and the world is changing in ways that favour the NDP.

[Wezil]

The NDP will have to change first. The party as it is today (and for the last 50 years) will never amount to more than a rump.

[Wezil]

PR would help them immensely but they would have to form government to implement it.

[notyoueither]

Proximity to power would draw in the less wing-nutty.

[Wezil]

Speaking of which. I haven't heard much from Elizabeth May so far.

Another party lost in the wilderness.

[Wezil]

I was just thinking about how damaging their policies would be to the industry I serve. How well does her party go over in AB?

[notyoueither]

Yeah. It seems the fix is in to a certain extent. The media is smothering the Greens.

[Wezil]

Nothing to smother. It was a stillbirth.

[Wezil]

A wag on the radio today... "Elizabeth MAy and the Green Party are losing to the margin of error."

[notyoueither]

I was just thinking about how damaging their policies would be to the industry I serve. How well does her party go over in AB?

Not too well, but she is just part of the background noise of the cacophony over the oilsands.