monte carlo question

[Wezil]

I believe you Agent.

Be proud and yell it loud.

[KrazyHorse]

I haven't dealt with this stuff in awhile but KrazyHorse is on the right track.

Thanks, you utter jackass. I have a PhD in it.

[loinburger]

Well, if it's any consolation, Wikipedia agrees with you

[Dauphin]

Wikipedia says he has a PhD?

[Provost Harrison]

Let's say you have a Monte Carlo simulation of a system with a free parameter (that is, the value of this parameter is chosen before running the simulation). You have a number of candidate values for this parameter, representing what you consider plausible scenarios. You do not know or have an assumption about the probabilities of these different scenarios.

Is it appropriate to use the same set of random numbers for each scenario? I believe yes.

Later, you develop an assumption about the probabilities of each scenario. Is it appropriate to use those probabilities to weight the output of each and then combine them (e.g. by averaging), even though this means you are reusing random numbers? I believe yes, but if I'm not please explain why.

If I'm right, would it therefore be inappropriate to use different random numbers for the different scenarios? I believe this would strictly degrade your result, though it wouldn't affect the asymptotic behavior.

You want to do something more exciting with your Friday evenings man...

[Provost Harrison]

Speaking of distribution of P, I need to go to the toilet.

[Agent Sox]

Thanks, you utter jackass. I have a PhD in it.

I don't think there is any reason to be mean about it. Game theory stuff is something I have studied but it's not my specialty. I'm more of an information theory/cryptography guy.

[KrazyHorse]

Monte Carlo and game theory have nothing to do with each other, you twit.

[Agent Sox]

No of course they don't. My brain misfired there because I momentarily thought of monty hall instead of monte carlo. Man now I look dumb to the "smart" guy.

[KrazyHorse]

The Monty Hall problem isn't game theory either. It is straightforward conditional probability.

What, praytell, does it mean when you say you are an "information theory/cryptography guy"?

[Agent Sox]

The idea of the monty hall problem is definitely a game theory thing, even if it's just a simple probability thing. In my work I build cryptographic systems for corporate clients. You really won't get any more out of me because I don't like to reveal personal information, haha.

[KrazyHorse]

So you're a code monkey whose understanding of mathematics begins and ends with some buzzwords you read somewhere?

Thanks for playing, ******.

By the way, it's obvious what your thought process here was. MC->gambling->game theory

[Agent Sox]

I can see you're a guy who seems to get enjoyment out of making fun of other people. I said this a few days ago I don't really care if you want to make fun of me because I don't do that sort of thing online. I am here because I was told it was a cool place for discussion. But if you want to make fun of how "stupid" I am I guess you can do that.

[Cort Haus]

You were told it was a 'cool place for discussion'?

Really?

[The Mad Monk]

It has been, from time to time...