Would Iraq have gone the way of Libya/Tunis etc?

[VetLegion]

Well?

I think that it would have. Perhaps not this time around, but eventually.

I see American invasion of that country as wholly unnecessary bloodshed.

[MikeH]

Well Dur.

[MikeH]

Was the UK too.

UK UK UK

[MattBowron]

And Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi

[MattBowron]

dp

[The Mad Monk]

I think Iraq would have gone the way of Iran. Both have / had hardened militaries that had absolutely no problem massacring their own people

[rah]

Agreed. As long as SH was around, it wouldn't have happened.
The real question is would all this be happening now if it hadn't been for what happened in Iraq.

[germanos]

I think Iraq would have gone the way of Iran. Both have / had hardened militaries that had absolutely no problem massacring their own people

Do you mean a Theocracy or a crackdown like Lybia today?

Agreed. As long as SH was around, it wouldn't have happened.
The real question is would all this be happening now if it hadn't been for what happened in Iraq.

That's the second time you bring it up. So I guess you're serious about it. I see no real connection, mainly because Saddam has been gone for so long now. Had the two cases been related I suppose the rebelling would have started in 2004 or '05.

To the OP: The answer has already been given by Sadist Hussein himself after he failed in his Kuwait-adventure and smashed the Kurds and Marsh-Arabs.

[rah]

I'm only half serious, but you have to wonder if there might be a connection. Granted it's been a long time but things there have started to improve. The only reason I bring it up is for all the people that laughed for a month when it was suggested back then that bringing Democracy to Iraq might eventually lead to it spreading in the region. Just because you don't see a real connection does not mean it doesn't exist.

[Elok]

I'm only half serious, but you have to wonder if there might be a connection. Granted it's been a long time but things there have started to improve. The only reason I bring it up is for all the people that laughed for a month when it was suggested back then that bringing Democracy to Iraq might eventually lead to it spreading in the region. Just because you don't see a real connection does not mean it doesn't exist.

The same could be said for any number of other connections, like a connection between eating tuna fish salad and increased fertility, or any other unestablished correlation you care to name. It's going to need some positive evidence. If anything, the lesson of Iraq would be that dictators can be removed by overwhelming military force from a Western power, which is precisely the opposite of what happened in Tunisia and Egypt (and appears to be happening in Libya, albeit in a messier way).

[rah]

Agreed. It could be other connections, but just because you currently don't have any positive evidence, doesn't mean that there is none. The possibility must be considered. But then I'm sure that all the people that laughed at it prior would never ever consider it since they would have to admit that maybe they were wrong. For me, I do mostly agree that it was probably not the dominating factor but have to wonder if it sped up the process a bit.

[DinoDoc]

Do you mean a Theocracy or a crackdown like Lybia today?

He means like '91.

[germanos]

The only reason I bring it up is for all the people that laughed for a month when it was suggested back then that bringing Democracy to Iraq might eventually lead to it spreading in the region.

Well, I guess you will leap me in with that crowd then since I still not believe that the invasion of Iraq will bring (and have brought) anything good to the region. (well, hardly anything I suppose, but I would have to scratch my head to come up with something).

PS: I didn't laugh, but were and am very worried.

[rah]

I was one that originally supported the invasion (not for a lot of the reasons given). I will also admit that in hindsight, it wasn't a great idea. But it would be nice if something (no matter how little) good comes from it.

[SlowwHand]

The real question is would all this be happening now if it hadn't been for what happened in Iraq.

Exactly.