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It's somewhat amusing to see Apple throw away market leadership now, just like it did in the 80s

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  • #136
    Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
    You can adjust for the chance that the market is incorrect. That's what hedging risks is all about, it's part of financial risk, something Kuciwalker knows a lot more about than me of course.
    Do you think you're the only one?
    Nope, there are many like me. Most people I talk to wouldn't touch AAPL right now with a ten foot pole.

    If you are participating in the investment, you are part of the market.
    Isn't the point that I'm NOT participating in the investment?
    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

    Comment

    • #137
      Originally posted by Asher View Post
      I don't have to do any such thing. It's somewhat alarming that you and HC don't understand that when investing in growth stocks like AAPL you (and the market) are simply gambling on the future of a company's balance sheet. That's ultimately what it is.
      It's only gambling if you place all your money in AAPL. If you purchase an index fund, the only thing you are gambling on is that society generally grows wealthier over time. That one big gamble of sorts is the composite of hundreds of little gambles on individual companies which in the aggregate should rise in value.
      If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
      ){ :|:& };:

      Comment

      • #138
        Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
        Housing bubbles created by government-backed bad loans is not the fault of the market. If anything, it is a demonstration of the fact that the government needs to stay the **** out of investment.
        Why does it matter who causes the bubble? The government or stupid investors...either way, these bubbles happen and the market gets it wrong and it pops...
        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

        Comment

        • #139
          Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
          It's only gambling if you place all your money in AAPL.
          So when you go to Vegas, it's only gambling if you go all in?
          "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
          Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

          Comment

          • #140
            Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
            Housing bubbles created by government-backed bad loans is not the fault of the market. If anything, it is a demonstration of the fact that the government needs to stay the **** out of investment.
            Of course it's the fault of the ****ing market, dufus. In retrospect, the market severely mispriced real estate. It mispriced real estate even given the government distortion. That's why there was a crash.

            Comment

            • #141
              Originally posted by Kuciwalker View Post
              The fact that you think this shows that you still know nothing about economics or finance. The market in the aggregate, and many of the individuals in it, know as much and more about Apple "as a company" than you do.
              Yeah, boy, keep on repeating that. That'll teach me.

              The market knows all*. *bows to the market*

              * except for when it doesn't
              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

              Comment

              • #142
                Originally posted by Kuciwalker View Post
                Of course it's the fault of the ****ing market, dufus. In retrospect, the market severely mispriced real estate. It mispriced real estate even given the government distortion. That's why there was a crash.
                So I don't understand. We've got countless examples of the market mispricing things, so why is my statement about AAPL being mispriced getting your panties in a twist?
                "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                Comment

                • #143
                  Originally posted by Asher View Post
                  Yeah, boy, keep on repeating that. That'll teach me.

                  The market knows all*. *bows to the market*

                  * except for when it doesn't
                  The market doesn't know everything but it's bound to be right more often than you. No one is claiming that it is always right all the time. It is only right most of the time, and right more often than anyone else.
                  If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                  ){ :|:& };:

                  Comment

                  • #144
                    Originally posted by Kuciwalker View Post
                    Of course it's the fault of the ****ing market, dufus. In retrospect, the market severely mispriced real estate. It mispriced real estate even given the government distortion. That's why there was a crash.
                    FWIW, this is another case of some people knowing better. Canada knew better and had laws to protect against the kind of **** the US had with the real estate market. It's not always "in retrospect" -- some people are just plain smarter than the market.

                    I remember my bad talking about the US real estate market in ~2005 and how absurd it was...back when he was teaching me about CDSes. It was way too easy to get a mortgage, and it was quite obvious the home prices were unsustainable.
                    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                    Comment

                    • #145
                      Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
                      The market doesn't know everything but it's bound to be right more often than you. No one is claiming that it is always right all the time. It is only right most of the time, and right more often than anyone else.
                      If the market was bound to be right more often than me, how would anyone make any money? People make money by outsmarting the market.
                      "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                      Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                      Comment

                      • #146
                        Originally posted by Asher View Post
                        I don't have to do any such thing. It's somewhat alarming that you and HC don't understand that when investing in growth stocks like AAPL you (and the market) are simply gambling on the future of a company's balance sheet. That's ultimately what it is.
                        It's alarming that you still don't understand what's going on. Yes, it's a 'gamble' on the future performance of the company; the point is that the the market price represents the price at which you should be indifferent to taking the over (going long) or under (going short) on that bet, given the best possible information and analysis [module issues related to your personal portfolio, e.g. that I don't want more exposure to tech]. You are claiming that the under is heavily favored to win, according to your knowledge and analysis, and I'm pointing out that the market is smarter than you and is more likely to be correct than you are.

                        Comment

                        • #147
                          Originally posted by Asher View Post
                          If the market was bound to be right more often than me, how would anyone make any money? People make money by outsmarting the market.
                          No, that's absolutely false! That would imply that you could only make money on the stock market as a result of someone else losing money, which is clearly false. Society generally becomes wealthier over time--the value of an indexed portfolio of stocks should reflect the increase in society's wealth.
                          If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                          ){ :|:& };:

                          Comment

                          • #148
                            Originally posted by Asher View Post
                            If the market was bound to be right more often than me, how would anyone make any money? People make money by outsmarting the market.


                            No they don't. People make money because the value of future consumption is lower than the value of present consumption. I invest in index funds, and "make money" on them; am I outsmarting the market? Are the people selling to me suckers?

                            Some people, of course, do make money outsmarting the market (or trying to). Those are the people who guarantee that the rest of us can't.

                            edit: people also make money because they are buying risk, but that's not a transfer, that represents mutual gains from trade

                            Comment

                            • #149
                              Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
                              No, that's absolutely false! That would imply that you could only make money on the stock market as a result of someone else losing money, which is clearly false. Society generally becomes wealthier over time--the value of an indexed portfolio of stocks should reflect the increase in society's wealth.
                              Of course absolute wealth grows over time.

                              But when people buy a stock, it's usually because they believe the market's price is low. They feel it should be higher. They see it as a good value; a good investment...
                              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                              Comment

                              • #150
                                Originally posted by Asher View Post
                                The market knows all*. *bows to the market*

                                * except for when it doesn't
                                The fine print should have been smaller.

                                Otherwise a good summary.

                                Comment

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